She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"
Saturday, June 6, 2015
Belmont edition -- How will it go for Pharoah?
The Belmont Stakes will be run today around 6:50 p.m. and 180 or so seconds later, we'll know if we have the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed pulled off the hat trick back in 1978.
1978. What a year...Do you remember much of 1978? Were you around then? I was still attending the University of Louisville...living off campus and working full time. I was at Churchill to see Affirmed beat Alydar and watched the other two races on TV. Back then, there was no on-line wagering and the only way to get up a bet on the race was to go to a track and do it there. Or, consult a "bookie".
Fast forward to 2015. Once again, a horse that has won the first two legs of the Triple Crown tries to gather the final jewel. From an odds and probability standpoint, it won't happen. California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Curlin, Big Brown....the names are strewn in the past as failing in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont.
American Pharoah, so we hear, is a incredible horse. He won the Derby in gritty fashion...holding off Firing Line and passing Dortmund in the stretch. He romped in the slop at the Preakness...Tale of Verve picking up the pieces late to get second but five or so lengths behind.
Three races in five weeks. American Pharoah is the only one of the eight runners today that has that in his resume. He'll face a field at will come at him from all angles. Horses who ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Fresh shooters who skipped the Derby and Preakness. Horses who run well on the home track...Belmont Race Course.
So...how do we make money today in this race. Our "Pharoah on top and everything else below" strategy in the Preakness paid well in the exacta and trifecta. We'll probably resort to it again...but fully expect the payoff to be less than three weeks ago. Expect to pay $49 on the tri and $7 on the exacta. I might even try a small superfecta with the four mentioned above and Tale of Verve. Not sure what that'll run me just yet.
We'll also try a exacta box with American Pharoah, Materiality, Frosted and Keen Ice. That's only $12 on a $1 wager. We might even try that on a $1 trifecta. $24 dollars rendered there.
We'll also try to make some hay on the undercard leading up to the Belmont Stakes. There are nine other stakes races today and straight bets, exacta, trifectas and Pick 3's and 4's could return whopping profits.
Here are some other horses I like on the Belmont card. Good luck and remember to wager responsibly if you choose to do so:
Stanford is running. He was a scratch for the Kentucky Derby. He was one of my four choices back then. He may not pay much today but I love him in this position and he'll be a single if I start a PK 3 here.
Competitive Edge is another potential single. I may include Ready For Rye and Cinco Charlie in any exotics...but they'll probably be chasing Competitive Edge to the wire.
He's unstoppable....unbeatable....unpassable...UNTAPABLE and he's my Best Bet Of The Day. I'll use him to start a PK 3 and across the board.
This is a toughie indeed. I like Red Rifle (named after Cincy Bengals/Texas Tech QB Andy Dalton) but would not be surprised if CALL ME GEORGE, SKY KINGDOM, MICROMANAGE or VE DAY win here. I'll use them all in the PK3 and in any other exotics I attempt.
CONDO COMMANDO and CURLINA are the two I love here. I'll also toss in PROMISE ME and WONDER GAL in the exotics.
The start of the PK 4 and if SANDIVA runs like he has in the past at Belmont...they're not gonna get him. If he doesn't, I'll have BALL DANCING, DISCREET MARQ and COFFEE CLIQUE as back ups.
TONALIST is a monster and his freshener got him ready for today's race. I also have loved BAYERN since I first saw him run a few years back and will toss in WICKED STRONG and PRIVATE ZONE in the PK 4.
Another tough one to seperate on. I'm going deep with BIG BLUE KITTEN, TWLIGHT ECLISPCE, HYPER and FINNEGAN'S WAKE...hoping I'm still alive in the PK4
RACE 11 - The BEMNONT Stakes
AMERICAN PHAROAH to complete the PK 4 and tossing in FROSTED.