Kentucky Derby one week away!

This time next Saturday, the Kentucky Derby will be just 9 1/2 hours away. Who will run, who will win, who will disappoint and are there any upset specials out there?

All the talk is about California Chrome...and the California invader will most likely be the betting favorite to win the Run for the Roses. Trainer Art Sherman has a powerful horse in C.C. and if he gets a clear trip...they probably won't get to him.  Clear trips in the Derby are rarities, though. Anything can happen when you turn 20 horses loose in front of 150,000 people and expect them to run further than they ever have before.

Wicked Strong has been getting a fair share of notice also and Jimmy Jerkins is a veteran trainer that knows how to get a 3 year old ready for big races. Like Sherman, though...he's never won the Derby and some feel that Wicked Strong won't be able to get the distance of 1 - 1/4 miles.

So..who are the longshots that I like? I'll give you three to watch.

1) We Miss Artie. I've been following the Todd Pletcher runner since his 2 yr. old campaign. He's been a horse in the making...until his win at Turfway last month, he wasn't being considered as a legit Derby threat. I like his gritty, refuse to lose style. He doesn't like being passed up and has the strength and stamina to easily run the Derby distance.

2) Tapiture.  He was all the rage as a 2 yr old and horse racing expert writer J.J.Hysell and I were ready to hand him the Derby Trophy after he destroyed the competition after his first three career races. 2 yr. olds become 3 yr. olds, of course...and his 3 yr. old campaign has been rather so-so and disappointing to date. IF he returns to that sparkling form of last year, though...watch out.

3) Ride On Curlin. Always so close, but never the win. A hard charger that is going to love the long Churchill Downs stretch...the Billy Gowan trained runner could follow a quick pace and be poised to swing to the middle of the track...where he likes to finish...and zoom past tiring runners. I loved his daddy also...the incredible Curlin...and breeding is a big factor in a horse's chances.

My handicapping pal Tommy Boy is ready to leverage the mortgage on Dance With Fate. He looked awfully good in winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland...charging from way back to pass the field and hit the wire first. He'll also have the services of Corey Nakatani in the saddle. "C-Nak" is one of my favorite jockeys of all time and his son is a place-kicker on the UofL Football team.

What else do you need?

With Derby fast approaching, I'll be submitting daily articles over here now. We'll also look at the Kentucky Oaks and Sonja and I will submit our Oaks Day and Derby Day picks here as well.

She kills me every year. She puts little effort into handicapping or studying the races. She won't reveal her
methods...but...consider this:

In the Oaks and Derby Day Stakes races selections last year...a $2 bet across the board on her selections would have cost you $72. You would have collected $310.

Finally, one of my favorite horseracing quotes comes from the late Mike Barry. He wrote for the Louisville Times newspaper many years ago. He said:

"I hope to break even at the racetrack. I could use the money."

See ya Sunday.

Kentucky Derby Picture --- Clear as mud

The Kentucky Derby is 15 days away. There are 15 horses out there that have a legit chance to win this thing.

Color me confused.

California Chrome has done nothing wrong in building his case to be the pre-race favorite. He's ruled the California circuit and looked impressive in doing so. How well that'll  transfer to the First Saturday in May is anyone's guess...but there is a lot to like here.

Danza was the big longshot that wowed them in the Arkansas Derby. His sneaky move up the rail and off to the finish line was impressive for the win. He wasn't getting tired. He laid off the pace, made is move and was the best that day.

Dance With Fate took the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and wasn't expected to do that. A gutty horse. How well he'll adapt from the recent polytrack win to Churchill's surface remains to be seen.

There are others I'm looking at also. Strong Mandate, We Miss Artie rate a chance. Vicar's In Trouble and Tapiture were favorites of mine early in the Derby campaign. I haven't ruled those two out yet.

So, there you have it. A strong seven. The hard part will be whittling this list down.

Stay tuned.

paulie

Ticket exchange no more...Paulie retakes the floor

OK...we gave it a try. The ticket exchange forum we set up here and ran for two months got no action.

So, I'm returning my personal site to its original intent and purpose...the occasional rantings and observations from a dashingly handsome and oft misunderstood veteran of the psychic wars and industrial age.

It happens to be Valentines Day. As for Sonja and I, it's pretty much like any other day in the week. She's already gone to work this morning. When the schools are closed, my dear goes to early shift.

As for me, it's a later shift at the old asylum. Normally I am off on Fridays...but a schedule swap with one of the inmates this week and next week have me pulling a 1pm -9:30 pm shift the next two Fridays and taking Saturday and Sunday off.

This does not bother me in the least. Today will be a busy day...a few chores and banking items to handle, then down to the Belknap Campus to record the words of Walz and get observations from lacrosse coach Kellie Young. After that, lunch with a friend (yes, I still have a few of those) and then off to the gold mines.

I enjoy doing interviews with all the womens' coaches at UofL...each is unique in their own way and always a lot of fun. Walz and Young are always great...Jeff with his detailed and quite candid observations before we turn the digital voice recording device on and Kellie paitently handling my sometimes bumbling questions about this sport I am learning and also bringing in a occasional player so we can transcend into the world of daffiness and comedy.

I do not subscribe to the commercialism of Valentines Day. I haven't for some time. I'm secure in the fact that I know I love my sweetheart 365 days a year and she (I'm fairly sure) has the same feelings for me.

Plus we have two birthdays and an anniversary coming up over the next two weeks. My birthday is no big thing to me anymore...it was a time, once, when I could share it with those who were responsible for my entrance into the world...me ma and pa. They're gone now, I get older each year and my birthday just isn't an event I go out to celebrate with abandon. There was a time, though...(smirk, chuckle..)

Our anniversary is a big deal, though...because it symbolizes a relationship that very few gave a chance of surviving. I actually had friends (at the time) try to talk me out of it. I was going nowhere in a nothing job and strapped for money. I had huge obligations and had recently gone through probably the most traumatizing event in my (at that time) young life.

The early years, as in many relationships, were tough at times. There were conflicts, different viewpoints, arguments and sometimes tears and bitter words. It never really got to the point of looking at separation or termination of the union, though. There was compromise, give-and-take and eventually the rough spots got smoothed out. We worked at it. We "got the hang" of each other and found it easier to forgive than fight.

I can only show my unwavering admiration and love for this woman of mine who took on these damaged goods that had some serious issues and responsibilities at the time. She never wavered in her support, loyalty and acceptance.

When I look back at those early years...I'd like to go back and change some things. I guess we all have 20/20 hindsight...

But, it is the here and now. I don't have much to complain about. I'm far from being a millionaire...but I'm not huddled in a box down by the river, have a family that loves me and my health is good. I awake each day ready for the excitement, tribulations, events and circumstances that await the 16-18 hours I'm in a non-sleep pattern.

I realize that I'm way past the halfway point in the average male life expectancy. I ignore it. I've created a life that has so many rich, rewarding, sad, revealing and funny story lines that I can recall and share with either the participants or new-found friends. Life is changing, ever-evolving and limited. Events and circumstances are inevitable, it's how you deal with them that shapes you. If you can give it your best over that 24 hour stretch, walk away unscathed and still fighting...than it's been a good day.

Someone said that if you can laugh, love and learn each day, than it's been quite a full day for you. I agree.

And there are more to come.

paulie

TICKET EXCHANGE FORUM

TICKET EXCHANGE FORUM


If you are looking to sell, donate, locate or trade UofL women's basketball tickets, use our comments section to hook up.

A suggested approach would be:

2 tickets available for UofL WBB game 1/26/14 at KFC YUM Center against Memphis. Can't use 'em. First e-mail to bobthebuilder@bob.com gets them. Must pick up from me @ work.

We'll see if anyone is interested in this.  Consider giving up yours if you can't go.

( NOTE: THIS WEBSITE IS ONLY A PLATFORM FOR PRIVATE TRANSACTIONS AND WE WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE, ASSUME NOR WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIFFICULTIES IN TRANSACTIONS. NEITHER PAUL SYKES NOR CARDINAL COUPLE LLC ARE MAKING A PROFIT OR RECEIVING ANY FEES FOR THIS EXCHANGE. IT IS MERELY A PUBLIC SERVICE FOR FANS WHO WANT TO GET RID OF, SELL, TRADE OR PURCHASE SEATS. SCALPERS ARE NOT WELCOME AND ANY COMMENT POSTS THAT ARE OF THAT NATURE WILL BE DELETED.)

Saturday Breeders Cup Racing Selections

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP SELECTIONS


Nine races to look at today...some tough fields, as well.

About yesterday...

We did have a PK 3 that paid a little over $300, which was nice...but after counting up all the wagers and monies won...we ended up winning only about $130 on the day.

Suns Out Guns Out -- 4th with no ammo left
Centralintelligence -- pulled up at the end of the race
Royal Delta -- not so regal
Bobby's Kitten -- curled up in a ball and went to sleep.

We'll do better today!

CLASSIC

I give Mucho Macho Man the edge here...loves this track. I'll also use Fort Larned, Game On Dude and my longshot sleeper is Will Take Charge.

RESULT: WE won with Mucho Macho Man!

MILE

Love Wise Dan at this distance and he's the pick. Tossing in Silver Max, Za Approval and longshot He Be Fire And Ice to follow behind him.

RESULT: Wise Dan got up just at the wire to win!

SPRINT

Wow...what a tough race! I'll side with Justin Phillip to hit the line first. Would not be surprised, though...if Private Zone, Fast Bullet or Trinniberg get their picture taken instead.

RESULT: Secret Circle won...went off as the favorite.

TURF

Tough to decide between Little Mike and The Fugue. I also respect Big Blue Kitten here. A longshot that could set the tote board on fire is Magician.

RESULT: Magician pulled off the sleight of hand! The Fugue ran second.

JUVENILE

Going out on a limb here with We Miss Artie. The crowd will back Havana heavily. Strong Mandate rates a chance here and my bomber at a price is Cleburne.

RESULT:  New Year's Day surprised the field. HAVANA got 2nd and STRONG MANDATE took the show spot.

TURF SPRINT

Another doozy to handicap!  I came up with Reneesgotzip to cross the wire first. If Chips All In, Jeranimo or Caracortado get the trophy, though...I wouldn't be shocked.

RESULT:  Reneesgotzip had zip but ran second. 

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Marketing Mix is a horse I just love in this spot. Romantica and Dank will make it tough for her. Keep an eye also on longshot Kitten's Dumplings.

RESULT: Dank is as good as advertised. ROMANTICA was next best.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Teddy's Promise is my best bet of the day. Groupie Doll, Dance Card and high odds runner Summer Applause will fill out the trifecta choices.

RESULT: Groupie Doll took the trophy! TEDDY faded to fifth.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Artemis Agrolera looks to be the best. Untapable could steal it. Sweet Reason will get a lot of play. A very live longshot is Rosalind.

RESULT:  No luck here...although Rosalind did get up for third.


Good luck today and remember that if you wager...do so in a responsible manner.

ALL in all...it was a tough day at the windows. We did have five winners on the Breeder's Cup selections...but only hit one small Pick 3 and just three exactas and no trifectas. $2 to win on all four selections in each of the nine races would have cost $72 and the total payout was $53.50

Was down pretty significantly at the windows before the 12th race...so I took a chance on Mucho Macho Man "across the board" and increased my exacta wager. The strategy paid off...getting a nice pay off on him and on him and WillTake Charge in the exacta. I still ended the day down about $50 on Breeder's Cup wagers. I also played several races on Churchill's card...did a little better there with a nice paying exacta and tri in the 5th race and a PK3 that ended with the 5th race...but didn't do much after that and the Churchill winnings din't cover the Santa Anita losses.

-Paulie

Friday Breeders Cup races and selections

FRIDAY BREEDERS CUP SELECTIONS

Five Breeders Cup races will be run Friday at Santa Anita.
I've checked the numbers and the entries and give you my picks for these five races. Good Luck and remember this is for entertainment purposes only.


MARATHON

I'm going with a price here...West Point Throughobred's Suns Out Guns Out. I like the jockey/trainer combination of Julian Leparoux and Dale Romans. It is Leparoux's only Breeders cup Friday mount...so he won't be holding anything back. I'll toss Cease, Commander and Ever Rider in any exacta, trifecta and Pick 3 combinations I attempt.

London Bridge...with Mike Smith aboard...could get a sizable amount of betting interest. I wouldn't be shocked if he bests these...but I'm not going to use this one.

This field is very strong. None of these are going to blow the others away and it should be an exciting stretch run.

JUVENILE TURF

A tough, evenly matched field here!
 
Bobby’s Kitten, (Kitten’s Joy and the Ramsey’s here) will be the favorite with a win in the GIII Pilgrim Stakes last out in Saturday’ $1,000,000, GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes, for the 2yo boys, going 1 mile out on the Santa Anita turf!

Giovanni Boldini, is #2 on the M/L, is a son of War Front with an Irish Stakes win last out was 3rd in a Grp 1 race 2 back!

Outstrip, at 4/1, does own a Grp 2 title at Donchester this year and was a good 3rd loast out in a Grp 1 2yo turfer at Newmarket! Gets a Mike Smith ride in this 2yo turfer too!

Bashart at 6/1, was the winner in the GII With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga 2 back then came 2nd to Poker Player (who is 12/1 here) by a length in the GIII Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland last out!

Give me Poker Player on top, followed by Bashart, Giovanni Boldini and Bobby's Kitten. I'll use them and Outstrip in the Pick 3.

DIRT MILE

I've loved Verazzano since he's been a 2 yr. old and the mile is perfect for him. Johnny Velazquez and Todd Pletcher get it done around 3-1 or so.

Rick Pitino's GoldenCents will challenge. Doug O'Neill finally got wise and put Rafael Bejarano on board. They'll be a close second. Longshot Centralintellegence needed his last one out at Santa Anita and gets show money here.
After that...tough to choose between Pants on Fire and Alpha. I'll use them all in the Pick 3 and wheel Verazzano with them in the exacta and trifecta.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF


My Conquestadory gets a terrible outside post...but has wowed them in her only two starts. I'll take her with Al Thakhira, Vorda. Ready to Act and Tessa Rossi in any exacta, trifecta and Pick 3 wagers. I give My Conquestadory a slight nod.

Dancing House could surprise at a price...I'm not using her but she's a live longshot.


DISTAFF

Royal Delta, Prince of Sylmar and Beholder are very hard to seperate. I think Royal Delta shows up Friday and wins, though. Use 'em all in the exotics and if you need a "price" horse...look at Close Hatches.

Best of luck Friday and if you wager...do so responsibly!

-Paulie

Why Walter White had to die

I became a fan of the AMC series "Breaking Bad" from the beginning. It provided a look at what one man would do for his family (and himself) when he found out he had cancer and would be dead in a couple of years.

What would I do in the same circumstances? I've provided well for my wife if I should leave this orb before her. Not by Walter White means...but she won't want for anything after my passing. Which I hope is a very long time from today.

Paul Sykes will die. We all will. Walter White had to die. He had become "the cancer". He was an evil man...but I still liked him...because of the basic premise he operated on...

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one

Sure, he went about it in a god-awful way. Mistakes, murders, things gone very bad. Betraying, double-crossing and the murder of Hank...which still pisses me off. I don't exactly blame Walter for Hank's murder....he did try to call off "Uncle Jack" and the Nazi boys...and offered $80 million in pay-off money for his life...but his call set a whole wild set of wheels in motion.

Walter White had to die. His exile, you knew, would be temporary. He had to set things right....in his own twisted yet brilliant way. Money to the family, the elimination of the evil empire Todd and the criminals had built. A final determination on Jesse. Cleaning up the mess he created. Then...acceptance and disappearance.

We talked about the ending. Dying in a meth lab. I proposed a different ending. Jesse, after getting in the car...backing up...next to Walt and saying...

"Mr White. Get in. You saved my life. We're going to the hospital"

And them driving off. Future unknown. The two together again...just like they were in the beginning.

Closure. A glimmer of hope for a possible movie down the road or sequel.

It was fun and horrific at times, BREAKING BAD. Maybe we'll see Walt reappear as a "walker" in THE WAALKING DEAD. That would be awesome. Maybe Jessie gets his wood-shop and devotes his life to helping drug addicts. Maybe Walt Jr. uses the money he receives at age 18 or 21 to help those in need.

Bye Walter White. You were a complex, complicated and cunning man. In a shady, slimy world of meth addicition...you somehow made it seem almost respectable...since you were going to great risks to provide for a family after you were gone...but ultimately destroying that family in more ways than the dollars you made making the blue stuff.

Oh...Lydia, Lydia...have you seen Lydia?

....