HANDICAPPING HEROES - HOT JOCKEYS AT CHURCHILL -- BOX OFFICE WOES

THE HOT JOCKEY

One of the angles that a Handicapper uses is who the "Hot Jockeys" are riding in a race. By "Hot Jockeys" we mean those who have been winning or hitting the board well lately, not a reference to their temperature and weather conditions affecting them.

How does a particular jockey end up on a particular horse? There are several ways this can happen.

Jockeys have agents who work the backsides of tracks soliciting rides from trainers for their clients. A jockey himself might do the same for himself and they're not shy about asking for a return ride on a horse the next time out, also.

Trainers and owners may desire a particular rider that has ridden the horse before or for the barn and actively seek this rider to ride for them on their horse. Some stables and trainers have a "A" list...a jockey that normally gets "the call" for riding their mounts. Some have "B" lists as well, in case that barn has two horses running in a race or that "A" jockey is unavailable.

Some riders prefer certain tracks and may not be able to travel to another track due to riding commitments where they are or they just may not want to travel across the country to ride a race or two and then have to fly back to their home track. Sometimes, it can even evolve to "pickup" mounts...where a scheduled rider cannot get to a track to ride a specific race because of travel snafus or a recent injury or situation that prevents them from accepting the ride. Then, a trainer usually goes to the available "jockey colony" at a track and selects one that is available. A "pickup" as it were.

Races present obstacles to no matter who is on a horse, traffic problems, speed duels, slow paces, track conditions and the like. So, it seems, sometimes no matter who is on board...their success can change as the race unfolds.

As Churchill continues with the 2018 Spring Meet, who are the "hot" jockeys currently and how are they doing?

Two riders are having quite the successful meet so far:

BRIAN HERNANDEZ, JR has met with a great deal of success in his rides. He leads Churchill with 16 wins. When you consider he's ridden 60 horses, that's a 27% win ratio and that is tops for Churchill among regular riders. He's also finished "in the money" (second or third) 12 additional times, which gives him a 46% in the money ratio. You might want to pay attention to who he's aboard during your next visit to the facility on Central Ave. He's been a popular rider at Churchill for several years now and a likable fella as well!

COREY LANERIE has also met with success during the Spring Meet. He has 13 wins, second best in the Churchill jockey colony, in 73 attempts. That's a 17% win percentage. He's also had 14 "place" efforts and 12 "show" results, which is an impressive 55% in the money ratio. Lanerie has been a popular jockey beneath the Twin Spires for numerous years now and is another rider that you might be aware of when he's riding. Corey is a popular pick, from what I hear, in bettor "show" pools, where people bet on a horse to show, hope he wins, and then roll the money over to the next race.



The two jockeys  mentioned above are also the top two when it comes to "rides" in the Spring Meet. A couple of other riders, who haven't had as many mounts, aren't doing too badly, either. RICARDO SANTANA has participated in 53 races and has 8 wins...for a 15% win ratio. JULIAN LEPAROUX has piloted 39 horses so far this spring and also has 8 wins, for a 21% win number. Santana has a 35% in the money success rate and Leparoux checks in at a 46% in the money record.

A tip is making sure that the jockey listed to ride a horse in the program or racing form is actually on board. The track does a great job of informing you of any jockey changes and you should always checkout the "post parade" to make sure that the rider/horse combination is what the program says it is. Sometimes you'll see, in races that have "also eligible" horses listed...or multiple scratches in a contest...a change. Like where Lanerie, for example might be listed on two horse in a 13 horse field.
Always make sure of the rider.

The "hot jockey" angle has it's merits but cannot be depended on solely when handicapping a race. It is, though, an important tool when putting together multi-race tickets. Recently, I played a small, in terms of investment dollars, Pick 4 that included all four jockeys mentioned here in the race sequences and walked away after the sequences with over a $200 profit. So many other things that one must consider when handicapping a race make it a true study and thorough analysis. Each handicapper has a format that they try to follow. Adopt your own and see how it works for you. If it isn't successful, you can always change it up a bit.


COMPLAINTS ABOUT LINES

I did hear from several patrons about the incredibly long wait on Mother's Day to get tickets to enter the track. Accounts of standing in line at the Box Office window for 30 minutes or longer to purchase track admission tickets and the new "scanning" procedure at the gate aren't making patrons very happy at all.

There are ways to circumvent that. Purchase your tickets on line and print them out. You can avoid the Box Office that way. Go to MY CHURCHILL DOWNS ACCOUNT or TICKETMASTER to do this. The link below will get you there:

PURCHASE CHURCHILL DOWNS TICKETS

If you have a large group attending, you can also call group sales at 502.636.4450 and they'll gladly assist you with admission and even dining at the track.

I did receive a rather upset e-mail about the Box Office having only three windows open at the Longfield lot entrance and the lines being over 100 people deep. The e-mailer reminisced about the days when you could just walk up, hand the cashier a few bucks at the gate and get in the track.

I'm not sure why Churchill went to the scanning procedure and policy but will surmise that it has to
due with security concerns and a better tracking method of who's attending.

Let's face it, we live in a "nervous" society these days and the track is concerned about your safety while there. Is there a better way to do it? If you have a suggestion, give Churchill a call and explain it to them. They'll gladly listen to all ideas, complaints and recounts of your "Day At The Races". You can also go online to do this or use your Churchill Downs mobile app.

Sonja and I did attend Mother's Day at the track and did witness the long lines at the Box Office as we walked up to the admission gate. We, fortunately, had our passes in advance and the procedure to get in wasn't too complicated at all to go through the checkpoints.

Managing your tickets through your My Churchill Downs Account is convenient, simple, secure, and allows you the ultimate flexibility in using your seats. To log in to your My Churchill Downs Account via a desktop computer, use your account ID or an email address on your account. If you are logging in via a mobile device or app, you must use the primary email address on your account. If you do not know your password, click on “Forgot Your Password?” to have a temporary password emailed to you. If your temporary password does not work, your account may be locked due to inactivity. Once logged in, you may change your password through the edit my profile link on the home page. If you have any questions or issues, please contact your account representative, email to onlinetickets@kyderby.com, or call 502-636-4400 for customer service.


Have a great week!

Paulie
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Who to watch? Five jockeys we'll offer...

People like angles when to win races. There are plenty of them out there. I like certain jockeys for certain tracks. At Churchill, there are six jockeys running in the Spring Meet that I pay close attention to. I'll share them with you.

1) Rosie Napravnik.  She gets good horses to ride at Churchill and the major trainers know she'll give them an honest, all-out ride. "Rosie the Riveter"...as I jokingly refer to her as...rides a smart race and doesn't get a horse in trouble during positioning. She's a recent transplant from the tough New York circuit and she won three races on Tuesday. Respect the lady... 

2) Brian Hernandez, Jr. I've been sold on him in turf (grass) races for a long time now. He also does well on dirt. Brian has a knack of getting a maximum effort out of a horse...regardless of the odds...and he knows Churchill very well. BJH Jr. has made me some very nice $$$$ over the years and I pay close attention when I see him listed on a horse.

3) Corey Lanerie. He is excellent with 2 yr. olds and gets the call on a horse from a lot of very respected trainers. A blue collar type of guy that pays attention to what a trainer tells him and doesn't try to force a horse into difficult situations.

4) James Graham. For a few years, I really didn't care much for him. He was younger and tended to do some stupid stuff on horses. He's been a Chicago circuit top rider, though...and he's matured and done well on the Kentucky circuit. James is also a "speed jock" and can get a horse out of the gate and to the led quickly.

5) Calvin Borel. He's the Godfather of Churchill. Calvin "Bo-rail". He picks his spots, his trainers and the results are usually pretty good. A veteran jockey that understand Churchill's track very well and loves taking the rail and staying there. You won't see him in every race...but when you do, pay attention.

6) Shaun Bridgemohan. "Little midget bast***" is my nickname for him and it stems from a story years ago that a friend shared with me about him in New Orleans. Shaun gets good horses, too...and he knows how to save them for the stretch, He doesn't get caught up in speed duels and he's a great longshot jockey.

So, what do I do if all six are riding in the same race? That's another story for another time.

Good luck and wager responsible.

paulie

You gotta love "found" money.

I was surfing around the Internet late Sunday morning and decided to check out my TVG account. In case you aren't familiar with TVG, it is a site where you can wager on the horses on the Internet.. They have a TV channel also and they're showing Keeneland during the fall meet.

I hadn't used it in a while and wasn't sure if I had any money left in it. I switched to Twinspires.com a few years back. I barely remembered my account # and password over at TVG, but was able to access my information and got a good surprise. I had a little over $120 still in the account.

I'm a big fan of jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. and saw that he was on four horses on the Sunday card. I decided to "go for broke" and put $10 "across the board" on his four chances. This all but wiped out my balance...the cost of investment was $120.

Things got busy, though...as they usually do on Sunday afternoon...and I didn't get around to watching any of the races until right before the 3rd race. That was also his first ride of the day. He was on a horse named Rivers Legacy, and the horse got off to a pretty good start in the seven furlong race but got tired around the turn for home and finished pretty far back and out of the money. My "go for broke" strategy was off to a rough start.

Brian had a mount in the next race and Keeneland runs races every half hour or so. I had a quick errand to run so I motored off, got that done and got back home in time to see the start of the race. He didn't start off too well in the mile race but started picking up momentum at the 1/2 pole and came flying down the stretch to grab second place by about a neck. Couldn't catch the winner, but he had pretty good odds at 12-1 and the horse that won was 21-1, so the payoff for place and show wasn't bad. $30 invested again, but a payoff of $92...so I was ahead $32 dollars for the day. Miss Squeal was the name of the horse. I squealed in delight.

I really liked his chances in the next race. He was on a horse trained by Charlie Lopresti named Rivendell. Once again, the start was a little slow but he swung Rivendell outside of the pack as they enered the turn, drove him hard down the stretch and hit the wire first by about a half-length. At 5-1, the payout wasn't too bad...$120 returned on the $30 spent and I now had a nice $122 profit on the day

Brian's final ride of the day was in the Bourbon Stakes, a stakes race for 2 year olds on the turf. Brian is a great turf rider and I was surprised that his horse, Strike The Note, wasn't getting much respect at 32-1. He had the runner pretty close to the leaders in the mile and one-sixteeth race and made a nice outside move to
go for the lead as they started down the stretch. Then,  another horse, named Really Sharp, sweved violently right into the side of Strike the Note and almost knocked Brian off his charging mount. The impact knocked Strike The Note into the horse on his right and a horse sandwich with Strike the Note being the meat in between the two pieces of bread occured.

Pinched back, he steadied his stunned horse and tried to get him re-started...but it was too late and he finished fifth. Really Sharp was disqualified from second because of the bumping incident. Strike The Note really looked like he was getting ready to unload on the field and I thought he might have won the race if he hadn't got so rudely slammed just when he was kicking into high gear.

I lost the $30 wagered but still had a $92 profit and no wagers left pending.

So, it should come as no surprise to you readers that I've decided to keep this little "bet on Brian" strategy going the rest of the Keeneland meet. They run again Wednesday at Keeneland, so I'll check the paper and see what kind of rides he has.

A $92 total profit on $120 wagered isn't bad. Beat the heck out of the stock market. How long it'll last is anyone's guess...but as I mentioned...it was "found money" and a chance to have a little fun. That $212 dollars now currently there could grow into vacation fund money...or shrink down to nothing.

That's why it's called gambling and those of us who take the risk are called gamblers. It's never wise to bet money that you don't have to spare on races...or anything, really. This "found money" though sat waiting around for me to find it for nearly two years. It's getting some exercise now...
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