CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/28/22

 A great weekend for racing at Churchill this Memorial Day Weekend. We'll look at the final four races out there today -- a nice stakes race, high level allowance and allowance optional claiming affairs and a maiden special weight close out the card. 

In case of scratches today, I've listed a "fifth horse" today in my picks, since I won't be around to come in and do any changes/updates. 

Best of luck today!

RACE 8 

4 -- WAR CAMPAIGN

10 -- PIONEERING SPIRIT

7 -- BRIGHT PROSPECTOR

3 -- RIDLEY'S MANOR

( 13 -- GUN RUNNER -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 9 

3 -- GUN IT 

5 -- DENNIS' MOMENT

2 -- AWESOME GERRY

6 -- EBBEN

( 1 -- ATOKA -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 10 

7 -- TEMPLE CITY TERROR

2 -- DISAPPEARING ACT

8 -- LUCK MONEY

1 -- STAND TALL

( 5 -- FEDERALIST PAPERS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 11

2 -- ARI OAKLEY

1 -- STATIC FIRE

8 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

6 -- BALI DREAMING

( 10 -- CODE FOR SUCCESS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

Play 'em anyway you like and have a winning day !

(A neat thing I heard the other day)..."It all begins with the effort. You have to put out the best effort you have...because your "rep", your past performances and your presence don't scare your opponent. They are there to take something away from you. A win. You must deny that. You must have the better effort. I hear losing coaches, players and others say that 'we weren't ready for them' or 'they out-played us in so-and-so quarter or stretch' and what it means is their effort was better than yours. They took it away from you. Me? I don't like to give away what I want. I am always going to give my best effort. I'm not out there for the popcorn, the fan recognition or because I had nothing else better to do. I want to win, so I must put out the better effort." 

paulie

paulie

 

 

PREAKNESS PICKS -- 5/21/22

Today we get the second leg of the triple crown -- The Preakness at Pimlico. 

With Rich Strike opting out, Epicenter deservedly gets the morning line favorite tag, but I do think he'll get a challenge from a few in here. The filly Secret Oath could challenge, Early Voting is getting a lot of backing and support and Creative Minister and Simplification wouldn't surprise too much, in my eyes, if they get the Black Eyed Susan garland. 

There is a nice Pick 4 that starts up there in Race 10 that ends with the Preakness and that's what I've handicapped for you today.

Good luck and I'll try to jump in if there are scratches or changes in my picks, 

RACE 10  JAMES W MURPHY STAKES -- 1 MILE (TURF)

10 -- JOE

5 -- READY TO PURRFORM

7 -- RIOT HOUSE  (scratched)

8 -- SHAKE EM LOOSE

2 -- LOCAL MOTIVE

RACE 11  SIR BARTON STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE (DIRT)

1 --ETHEREAL ROAD

5 -- B DAWG

8 -- UNIKEE

6 -- MR JEFFERSON

RACE 12 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF)

2 -- CAROTARI

7 -- GRATEFUL BRED

9 -- HOLLIS

3 -- SEVEN SECRETS

RACE 13 -- THE PREAKNESS -- 1-3/16TH MILES

8 -- EPICENTER

4 -- SECRET OATH

5 -- EARLY VOTING

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

As I always say, bet 'em however you like.  I fooled around with a few bets yesterday and favorites were getting routinely slaughtered in the final four on the card. 

paulie

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/14/22

 Tonight is Downs After Dark at Churchill with a post time of 6 p.m.

We'll look at the late Pick 4, which starts in Race 8 

RACE 8 

6 -- QUICK TO BLAME

7 -- UNCLE BERLEY

2 -- MARVELOUSMOONDANCE

3 -- GRAPNEL

RACE 9 

5 -- TWILIGHT GLEAMING

2 -- MYSTIC EYES

3 -- MARGE'S KITCHEN

11 -- DEVINE CHARGER

RACE 10 

4 -- REMAIN ANONYMOUS

3 -- LIBERTY MD

5 -- GERRI B 

7 -- ALLWORTHY

RACE 11 

3 -- BEACHFRONT BID

2 -- SHE'S GONE

5 -- MY LILY MAE

8 -- PORONUI

Ill try to get back in with scratches tonight, 

GOOD LUCK abd olay 'em however you like

paulie

DERBY -- 5/7/22 -- SATURDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS

HAPPY DERBY DAY !!!

 Friday recap. On the 13 race card, I had 10 winners, 10 places and five shows. That's a 46% "in the money' number out of the total horses selected and 25 for 39 was a 64% filling of the payable spots. I'll take it !.

Betting wise, you know how I roll if you've followed the site. I play .50 Pick 4's with four horses in each leg. $128 per wager. I played four of them yesterday. Cost me $512. I got back a total of $1106. 

I'M NOT TRYING TO INFLUENCE YOU ON HOW TO BET, OF COURSE...but I get people ask me how I bet my picks, so...there it is. As I say, play 'em however you like. It's important to note that Friday's success doesn't mean I'll clean up on Saturday -- but, I had a profitable Keeneland meet and (so far) Churchill meet, and I'm "ahead for the year"  playing the Florida tracks and Oaklawn before they arrived in Kentucky...so why go changing? 

SATURDAY 

********UPDATED 8:15 AM*********

 

RACE 1

7 -- WARRIOR JONNY

10 - LOGICO

9 -- CONGRESSMAN

13 --  MONTOUK POINT 

NOTE: 14 -- GASOLINE DID GET IN THE RACE. I DID NOT FIGURE HE WOULD, BUT HE'LL FIGURE IN ANY WAGERING I MIGHT DO. NO PICK 4 HERE, THOUGH...FIRST ONE IS RACE 2. 

RACE 2 

4 -- SURFER DUDE

8 -- OSBOURNE

6 -- GREAT ESCAPE

2 -- STAYED IN FOR HALF

RACE 3

8 -- TALKING BOOK

7 -- FINAL BELLE

9 -- QUEEN BOURBON

3 -- LADY ROCKSTAR

RACE 4 

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

2 -- BYE BYE BOBBY

12 -- EMIRATES ROAD

1a -- VARATTI  (scratched) 

1 --  MCLAREN VALE

RACE 5

8 -- SPEAK OF THE DEVIL

5 -- WAKANAKA

6 -- LADY SPEIGHTSTOWN

7 -- IN ITALIAN

RACE 6 

2 -- SHARED SENSE

7 -- SOUTH BEND

4 -- DREAM SHAKE

10 -- MAJOR FED (scratched)

11 -- NECKER ISLAND

RACE 7

5 -- JACK CHRISTOPHER

11 -- MY PRANKSTER

1 -- MAJOR GENERAL

3 -- PAPPACAP

RACE 8 

2 -- JUST ONE TIME

4 -- KIMARI

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- EDGEWAY

RACE 9

5 -- BAINIKHEV

7 -- SY DOG

2 -- MAIN EVENT

11 -- DOWAGIAC CHIEF

* I'll also add 9 -- STOLEN BASE -- into the mix. For all wagers. Got a tip on him*

RACE 10

1 -- ALPHA WEST

3 -- JACKIE'S WARRIOR

6 -- PREVALENCE

5 -- REINVESTMENT RISK

RACE 11

6 -- SHIRL'S SPEIGHT

8 -- ADHAMO

1 -- IVAR  (scratched)

4 -- TRIBHUVAN

5 -- MIRA MISSION

RACE 12  (DERBY)

3 -- EPICENTER

1 -- MO DONEGAL

10 -- ZANDON

5 -- SMILE HAPPY

RACE 13

9 -- MILITARIST

3 -- LIFE IS GOOD

11 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- STORM THE COURT

RACE 14

11 -- STROBE

12 -- BOURBON HEIST

6 -- MASTER OF ARMS

3 -- LUDWIG

I'll update Saturday morning with any scratches and/or changes. 

Play 'em however you like and Good Luck ! 

paulie

 

OAKS -- 5/6/22 -- FRIDAY CHURCHILL DOWNS

 

( Thursday Recap -- Out of the 11 races I handicapped Thursday, I had six winners, seven places and seven shown.. That was a 20-44 (45%) "in the money" and I filled 20 out the 33 possible payout slots for 61% )

FRIDAY PICKS

RACE 1

3 -- IDIOMATIC

8 -- FANNY AND FREDDY

4 -- SEQUIST

2  -- IMOGENE MALVINA

RACE 2

11 -- INVENTING

8 -- BLAME THE CHAMPAGNE

10 -- MISREAD

3 -- SHE'S KEEN

RACE 3 

1 -- Q.F. SEVENTY FIVE

3 -- RED HORNET

4 -- MYOPIC

7 -- GRAEL

RACE 4 

7 -- JUJU'S MAP

5 -- SEMBLE JUSTE

8 -- ILLIOGAMI

3 -- POWDER RIVER

RACE 5 

8 -- BLEECKER STREET

7 -- CURLY RUTH

1 -- FLUFFY SOCKS

2 -- STAND TALL

RACE 6 

8 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

2 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

4 -- BATTLE BLING

1 -- JILTED BRIDE

RACE 7 

1 -- MAX SAVER

3 -- OLYMPIAD

7 -- HAPPY SAVER

6 -- FULSOME

RACE 8 

5 -- DOLCE ZEL

10 -- DREAM LITH

8 -- SPICER

9 -- NEW YEAR'S EVE

RACE 9 

8 -- MATAREYA

3 -- MARISSA'S LADY

2 -- PRETTY BIRDIE

4 -- AIN'T EASY

RACE 10

11 -- JUST MIGHT

7 -- DIAMOND OOPS

10 -- ARREST ME RED

8 -- GEAR JOCKEY

RACE 11 (OAKS)

7 -- ECHO ZULU

10 -- KATHLEEN O

4 -- NEXT

1 -- SECRET OATH

RACE 12

9 -- WISH YOU WELL

4 -- SOCIETY

1 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

2 -- REAGAN'S DECISION

RACE 13

6 -- LITTLE BLAZE

7 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- RATHER BE LUCKY

8 -- COLORFUL MISCHIEF

* It's supposed to be a wet Oaks Day, so I kept that in mind when handicapping.

* I'll try to keep up with scratches as best I can...and update the picks

* Play 'em anyway you like!

paulie

 

Thurby -- 5/5/22 -- Thursday Picks at Churchill

 

Welcome to Thurby !  

The Thursday races at Churchill Downs are commonly referred to "Louisville's Day at the Track" and an 11 race card is being offered today. 

If you go, you might want to consider a poncho. Rain is expected in the afternoon. 

I've handicapped the race and have all 11 races below. I'll jump back in later this morning with any scratches or chances, so be sure to check back

****************************************UPDATED 12:20 P.M.************************************* 

RACE 1

5 -- THE BOSS FACTOR

7 --  HIGH SPIRITS

8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL

3 -- HIGHER AUTHORITY

RACE 2 

1 -- EMPIRE OF MY OWN

6  -- DIVINE GRACE

4 -- DEVIOUS DAME

7 -- YOU CHOSE WISELY

RACE 3 

5 -- COVE BLUE

1 --RYE HUMOR    scratched

6 -- MUY CARO

9 -- DAVID'S GEM

2 -- ABUELO NUNO

RACE 4

6 -- BABY YODA

7 -- DIVINE LEADER

5 -- THE QUEENS JULES

3 -- WINDY CITY'RED

RACE 5 

4 -- ADVANCED PLACEMENT (scratched)

9 -- ENOUGH ALREADY

12 -- STICKY ISSUE

5 -- TWIRLING BLUES

8 -- FIELD MARSHALL

RACE 6 

4 -- BRONZE HALO

1 -- BIG BLUE LINE

7 -- DUAL THREAT

6 -- GUT FEELING  (scratched)

3 -- GROUP EIGHTEEN

RACE 7 

 4 -- DOWNTOWN ABBY

7 -- BELLE RUBELLE

2 -- SOCIAL DILEMNA

8 -- FLASHY CHARGE

RACE 8 

2 -- BEATBOX  (scratched)

5 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

6 -- SET PIECE (scratched)

4 -- KENTUCKY GHOST    (scratched)

11 -- MAX K.O.

1 -- MONARCHS GLEN

RACE 9

1 -- TOM'S REGRET

11 -- HURRICANE DEBBIE

9 -- SIMPLY SUPER

3 -- KING ADCOCK

RACE 10

2 -- BROOKE MARIE

6 -- CATCH A BID

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

7 -- GOIN GOOD

RACE 11 

5 -- SOMEBODY LOVES ME

10 -- TACHLIS

6 -- SWEET TRUFFLES

2 -- SHE'S GREEKANDSLEEK

Best of luck to you today !

paulie

Early Oaks and Derby Thoughts --Tuesday 5/3

 Now that the post positions have been assigned, let's take a look at the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby/

In the Oaks, I've liked three horses for awhile now, and that didn't change with the post assignment:

OAKS

10 -- Kathleen O  -- The Gulfstream Oaks win was impressive

7 -- Echo Zulu -- She showed she does no like to be passed in the Fair Grounds Oaks

4 -- Nest -- Her four-wide move on the turn and dominating stretch run in Ashland?  WOW !!

A longshot to consider:

1 -- Sacred Oath --Tried the boys, held her own and got third in Ark, Derby

:

In the Derby, I've wrestled with my top three for awhile now Here's what I got;

3 -- Epicenter -- I think his win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive. Rated, waited, pounced and pulled away.

1 -- Mo Donegal -- The win in the Wood was a closing nail biter but he flew that last furlong!

10 -- Zandon -- What a run in the Blue Grass ! From last to first and negotiated the traffic.  

A longshot to consider:

5 -- Smile Happy. -- 2nd in the Blue Grass and led in the stretch. That bump he got from Emmanual in the stretch probably cost him the win, in my opinion. 

paulie