Keeneland Results from 10-26-19

If there is anyone more glad than I to see the Keeneland meet end, point them out to me.

On a rainy Saturday, closing day for their Fall Meet, the Lexington track taught me yet another lesson.

I gave you (16) horses to consider for the Late Pick 4. Two got scratched, so 14 broke from the gate. Out of those, I managed two winners, two places and two shows. Six out out 14 is about 43% and nothing tp be proud of. Expect the unexpected and I should probably avoid handicapping this track in the Spring.

I was entirely off the board in the final - a MSW affair on the turf.

$2 across the board on all would have cost $84. I got back $46.

OH WELL, I move on and will have both Friday and Saturday Breeders Cup picks for you next week. Let's hope a change in venue brings a little better luck.


paulie
xxxxx

KEENELAND PICKS 10-26 -- LATE PICK 4

Back at it today for what looks to be a very wet day for Saturday racing at Keeneland. The card is solid with one stakes race (Fayette), two allowance races and a maiden special weight through Races 7-10. Let's hope we have a little luck in our picks. 

It's Closing Day at Keeneland and also the first half of the "Lexington Doubleheader" -- with UK Football hosting Missouri following racing. Gonna be a lot of wet and high spirited people in Lexington this Saturday...

Here we go...


RACE 7 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- ALLOWANCE 75K 

2 -- LAYLA MOOR
3 -- COCO CHANEL
4 -- DELTA KINGDOM
7 -- WITH DIGNITY


RACE 8 -- 7 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE 73K

2 -- BOTERO 
1 -- DIZZY SIGHT
7 -- OFF THE RECORD
8 -- HOLLY BLAME


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8th MILE -- FAYETTE -- 200K

3 -- TOM'S D'ETAT
8 -- BAL HARBOR
5 -- MOCITO ROJO
2 -- MR FREEZE 


RACE 10 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 71K

4 -- CARDIAC KID
11 -- SUGGESTED
8 -- SUMMER PALACE
3 -- BLANKET OF ROSES

Good luck on today's card! Play 'em however you like. 


paulie
xxxxx

Keeneland Results -- 10/19/19

Sometimes, despite all the handicapping, analysis work and searching for trends...the horses fail to agree with your research. 

Such was the day yesterday at Keeneland. The "shots" were finding success in the late Pick 4 sequence and that's not a good thing when you're not playing them. 5-1, 18-1, 13-1 and 24-1. I won't belabor this any further. 

I gave you (16) horses to consider. Out of them, I managed three "seconds" and one "third"..  That's a pretty woeful 25% "in the money". 

That $96 I put down for $2 WPS on all 16 returned a paltry $30. 

There are going to be days like Saturday. As a handicapper, you shake it off, go back and look for any type of trend in the winners...but there was nothing. Speed won, closers won, different post positions won and four different trainers/jockey combinations won. 

A day at the races.. Keeneland being Keeneland.  Move on. 


paulie
xxxxx . 

KEENELAND PICKS 10/19/19 -- LATE PICK 4

After a week off FROM HANDICAPPING last week to watch a little pigskin on the road, i'm back and ready to tackle a very difficult late Pick 4 at Keeneland today.


RACE 7 -- MAIDEN 71K -- 6 FURLONGS


1 -- HIGH HOLY
7 -- GOLD STREET
10 -- MR. MONOMOY
3 -- HANSENS MISCHIEF


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 77 K -- 1-1/16 MILES  (TURF)


11 - PERU
12 - KALLIA
8 -- BOXWOOD
7 -- PHANTOM OPENING


RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN (G II) 250K -- 7 FURLONGS


6 -- RESTLESS RIDER
1 -- ROYAL CHARLOTTE
3 -- INDIAN PRIDE
11 -- IRISH MISCHIEF


RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE 73K -- 5 1/2 FURLONGS  (TURF)


10 -- UNCAPPED
5 -- SAYYAAF
4 -- FOOCH
6 -- JOYFUL HEART


Good luck on today's card and bet 'em anyway you want !!


paulie
xxxxx

KEENELAND RESULTS FROM 10/5/19

A pretty good day at my attempts to pick winners at Keeneland. The 10th race blew up completely on me, though...I even went five deep trying to snag the late Pick 4 and couldn't even get a horse in the money.

Buzz kill. 

I did have three winners in the sequence though, two seconds and a third. I provided seventeen runners to consider, six "hit the board" for a "in the money" percentage of 37.5% which is a little lower than I usually come up with, 

A $2 win, place and show wager total of $102 on all 17 brought back $82, so we dropped $20 on that venture. A $1 exacta box on my picks in the four race sequence cost $56 and returned $54, 

I got saved in the ninth race, though...with a .50 cent pick three that covered races seven through nine...which cost $32 and returned $89..

So a $135 lesson. I can't understand how I misjudged a $1 million turf race so badly...but, apparently...based on the payouts...a lot of people were on that wrong barge with me.  

That darn tenth race. It blew the tote board up. A 8-1 winner and higher odds than that in second and third. 

We move on with the gentle reminder that, despite our best intentions, we can't always win every race.  


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I'll be back in two weeks. A little sortie with the wife will have me out of the loop for a couple of days...in terms of handicapping and such. Given the way the results have come out in the first two days of the Keeneland meet, maybe that's not a bad thing !!


paulie
xxxxx

KEENELAND 10/5/19 PICKS

The second day of racing at Keeneland's Fall Meet has a very enticing Pick 4 sequence which starts in the seventh race and has three Grade I and one Grade II races , so that is where I'll go today. 

RACE 7 -- SIX FURLONGS -- TCA -- GRADE II -- 250K

1 -- OURS TO RUN
3 -- SPICED PERFECTION
7 -- TALK VEUVE TO ME
8 -- CHALON


RACE 8 -- ONE MILE (TURF) -- FIRST LADY -- GRADE I -- 400K

3 -- JULIET FOXTROT
6 -- VASILIKA
4 -- UNI
11 -- RUSHING FALL


RACE 9 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILE -- BREEDERS FUTURITY -- GRADE I -- 500K 

1 -- TAP IT TO WIN
6 -- MAXFIELD
8 -- AJAAWEED
10 -- GOUVERNEUR MORRIS


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE (TURF) -HADWELL -- GRADE I -- 1 MILLION DOLLARS

3 -- BANDUA
4 -- VALID POINT
6 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE
11 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH  
13 -- DIVISIDERO 


(Note -- I'll probably go five deep in the final, depending on how the day goes early. So many great runners in the $1 million Shadwell.)

Play 'em however you like. We had success at Churchill with the $2 WPS wager on the runners -- $24 per race -- except for the final...a $30 wager.  It's a safe way to play. Today also might be a good day to play a $2 EXACTA box with the selected runners. A investment of $24 a race with four selections and $40 with five.  

Good luck and, remember...it takes money to make money


paulie
xxxxx