HANDICAPPING HEROES -- RESULTS FROM CHURCHILL DOWNS LATE PK 4 -- 9/22/18

The Handicappers took on the late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs Saturday. A track that had devolved into sloppy conditions. We had some successes but, at least speaking for myself, handicapped the races for a fast track. We record the show early Saturday morning, so we don't exactly know what the track will be like later that afternoon.

A huge surprise in race 10, when Calvin Borel guided massive long-shot DIVINE QUEEN through the field and down the rail to win. An over $100 payout on a $2 wager there. We didn't have it between the three of us.

Handicapping for wet weather involves a bit more study. You look for horses that have run in the slop and how they've done. Any races on the track they're running on that day...you pay particular attention to. A look at Divine Queen shows us that, although she had never run on a "off track", she did have a win at Churchill with Borel on board the only time that she had run at Churchill.

With these two-year old fillies, we see that, upon further review, only (2) of them had ever tried the sloppy going. #7 EveryoneLovesJimmy tried the slop once (at Churchill) lifetime and won the race. That would have been a logical choice, but the filoy did not hit the board yesterday. The #10 Naples Legacy had run three times on an off-track and never hit the board, including an eighth-place finish at Churchill back in late June. Once again, she did not hit the board.

So, sometimes the "angle" works, sometimes it doesn't...but it remains a useful handicapping tool.

Let's see how the guys did yesterday:


HOLLYWOOD had 14 of his 16 picks break from the gate, with two scratches. Out of those, he had two winners, one second and two thirds. That's a 36% "in the money" percentage. He also had one exacta. HE FINISHED THE SEQUENCE WITH 12 POINTS. 

PAULIE had 15 of his 16 picks remain in the races, with one scratch. He gave us three winners, three places and a show. That's a 47% "in the money" percentage. He also gave us two exactas, including a huge one in race 11 that paid $136.40 on a $2 wager. PAULIE ALMOST TOPS ARCHIE WITH 20 POINTS IN THE SEQUENCE. 

ARCHIE saw all 16 of his picks try the dirt with no scratches. He produced three winners, three seconds and two shows. He also gave us two exactas, with a nice one in Race 8 that paid $64 on a $2 investment. HE EDGES OUT PAULIE FOR THE TOP SPOT IN THE CONTEST WITH A TOTAL OF 21 POINTS. 

Even though we did not hit either Pick 3 or the Pick 4, we still gave out some nice payouts via the exactas. 

YOU CAN HERE YESTERDAY'S SHOW AT THE LINK BELOW: 

HANDICAPPING HEROES 9/22/18


CUMULATIVE TOTALS:


PAULIE                 105
ARCHIE                 94
HOLLYWOOD      84


paulie
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