HANDICAPPING HEROES -- POST POSITIONS FOR BELMONT -- WILL ANYONE BEAT JUSTIFY?

The Belmont Stakes post positions were determined today and JUSTIFY gets the #1 slot. Despite the naysayers who don't like where the Baffert trained contender ended up, the rail at Belmont will just make it a bit easier for Justify to go to his pace-stalking, near the lead running style and Mike Smith has broken from the rail on rides more times than LeBron James has made jumpers. And the #1 hole has produced more winners than any other post at Belmont

The question is, can any of the other nine contenders take him down?

 I think one can rule out FREE DROP BILLY, RESTORING HOPE and GRONKOWSKI right off the bat. They may be nice considerations down the road in other stakes races in 2018 and beyond but nothing in their running lines or in their potential indicates that they'll be in the winner's circle Saturday. It is very hard to predict a top-three finish for any of these three.  Let's look at the others.

VINO ROSSO  was one of the "wise guy" picks for The Derby but barely turned in a top ten finish. He did take the Preakness off, which means he should be well-rested. Todd Pletcher thinks he'll like a longer distance. John Velazquez is one of the best on horseback and "Vino" did run quite well in the the Wood Memorial. That may be enough to "justify" 8-1 odds and he's one I'll use in the "gimmick" bets. On top? It would be a shock but, I suppose, possible.

HOFBURG is another horse that got considerable speculation as a "price horse" in Kentucky and has demonstrated a closing kick. That may hinder him in New York, where more than a few think maintaining a closeness in the early going and being a speed horse improves your chances. I think he'll pass a few tired runners at the end but see him no better than fourth. 9/2 odds is optimistic, in my opinion.

BRAVAZO has gotten better, it seems, each time he's gone out. Sixth in the Derby, second in the Preakness. If "The Coach" can figure out how to get in front of Justify and stay there, I like his chances...especially with cagey Luis Saez in the saddle. That's also part of the problem.

Just how do you get in front and stay in front of Justify?

I'll use him in all exotics and, at 8-1 or better...wouldn't be a bad across the board attempt. That being said, I do like others better. He made a "go" of it against Justify in the stretch but couldn't get him. I honestly don't know if he's got another effort like that left in him.

TENFOLD.  "Daddy" Steve brings him back for another try at Justify after the third-place Preakness finish. I do believe that he may be the second-best horse in the race. A bit of racing luck could get him to the winner's circle. Espinoza retained the ride and maybe do better on a dry surface. Who knows, maybe they ALL do better on a dry surface but I'll go out on a limb and say he'll be second best in all probability and if things fall apart, he maybe, possibly, remotely has a chance to win. 12-1 early odds make his an intriguing option.

BLENDED CITIZEN. OK, he won the Peter Pan. Tracked an early pace, went four wide and roared through the final furlong to win by a length. A mile and an eighth. Can a closer beat Justify? I guess we'll know soon enough. The 2 for 10 recent record, though...Kyle Frey on board and the 15-1 generous early line have me thinking possible filler in the exotics than one to put on top of exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Doug O'Neill is a great trainer but I must side against a possible win here.

NOBLE INDY. The Derby was a clunker, no doubt. That Louisiana Derby win in March was something special, though, and Javier Castellano has done more with less in his career. The question goes back to speed. Can Noble Indy track the pace, grab a lead like he did after a half at the Fairgrounds and then hold off a couple of determined last-gap and prolonged charges at him? I'll take a chance at 30-1 to say I think he's got a shot at the money and, although probably not a winner, could make for a nice fill out in the "gimmicks" and add price. Yep, I'll include him.

So, in summation...I think it's JUSTIFY and Mike Smith's race to lose. The PP doesn't bother me. And, if it's rainy and slop conditions...well, guess who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in the off-going? It'll be interesting to see just what he can do if he gets a fast track, right?


So...we get to THE EARLY THOUGHTS ON "PLAYS?" 

How about a $1 exacta box on 1,3,7,8,9,10 to start? $30 in cost and could be huge if #1 (Justify) doesn't get in there. Others included...#3 Bravazo, #7 Tenfold, #8 Vino Rosso, #9 Noble Indy and #10 Blended Citizen

Also, I'll suggest  a $1 exacta "wheel" with 1,3,7 on top and 8,9,10 on bottom but I probably won't play it. I don't like to play "wheels". You could "turn it around" I guess. I just stay away from wheels.

A trifecta suggestion is for $1 with 1,3,9,10 on top...1,3 7,8,9,10 next and 1,3,7,8,9,10 on the bottom. This will run you $64 for a $1 dollar wager. 

Finally, a superfecta possibility is 1,3,9 with 1.3,9,10 with 1,3,7,9,10 and "ALL" for fourth. 
Figured at a $1 wager, your total comes out to $189. 

I'll look at three of the four I've laid out here and possibly adjust as the race gets closer.  $283 seems a sizable amount, I know, for three bets in a ten horse race where there's likely to be a even or lower odds-on favorite...but the adage goes "you have to spend money to make money" and...since I've been playing "my fellow horse-players" money pretty much since Derby...I'll risk giving a bit back but hope to make more.

It's important to remember a couple of things. Bet with your head and only what you can afford to lose. Also, there are no guarantees in horse-racing. I'm OK risking giving $300 back of profits for the chance of doing much better. After all, a $1 super in the Derby of ,6,7,8/,6,7,8/,6,7,8/ALL returned $19,000 + and cost less than $200.

Paulie
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