Four experts weigh in on the Derby

I got the chance to get together with four very good horse racing handicappers over the weekend and get some ideas on Derby hopefuls. The radio link attachment provides some very good analysis and commenntary on the Run For The Roses.

Enjoy!





THE CARDINAL COUPLE RADIO HOUR

If you missed Saturday's live broadcast of THE CARDINAL COUPLE RADIO HOUR...fear not. The SoundCloud re-broadcast can be heard at the following link: 

LINK: https://soundcloud.com/chradio/cardinal-couple-20160423


A fun broadcast where Jared Anderson and I discussed Louisville softball, lacrosse, hoops and track and field in the first half of the broadcast. You won't want to miss our Derby Preview in the second half of the broadcast with the excellent handicapping views of Tom, Scott, Dave and Charlie for the first Saturday in May race.

Mohayman electifies Churchill backside with work

DERBY THOUGHTS AND MUSINGS

Kentucky Derby contender Mohaymen set the barns at Churchill Downs abuzz with a 4 furlong work of 46 4/5 seconds on Tuesday...the best work at the distance of the day at the legendary oval off Central Avenue. 

Too fast so close to the Derby? Not necessarily...different trainers have different techniques when it comes to race preparation and workouts. 

Does it put this runner back into consideration after finishing a well-beaten fourth in the soggy Florida Derby?

There is merit in the theory that certain horses like certain tracks and conditions better than others. Mohaymen was undefeated going into the Florida Derby and matched against Nyquist...the second betting favorite who skipped over the slop to remain undefeated and basically left Mohaymen "tied to the rail" in the final two furlongs.

Interesting that Mo Tom, also a Derby contender, had the second bet work of Tuesday with a 47. 

A lot of Mo's being bandied about here. Add Mo Spirit and you could try a 'all-Mo' trifecta as a Derby hunch bet that would probably pay very handsomely. 

As for me...although the work was impressive, it changes nothing in my top five Derby horses on this 4/22 entry.

<><><><><> Paulie's Top Derby FIVE 4/22<><><><><>

1. Exaggerator
2. Nyquist
3. Brody's Cause
4. Creator
5. Suddenbreakingnews

paulie
xxxxx

Shall we add Creator to the Derby mix?

(Notes from a dog-eared, scribbled-on Daliy Racing Form)

Well, race-track aficionados...we might need to add another horse to Paulie's Derby Horses to Watch list. 

I present to you Creator. 

No, I've not enlisted The Almighty in my handicapping routine (although there are times I've needed a divine miracle to get one of my selections to the toteboard). This is a hard-running grey three-year old that swooped by them all in the stretch at the Arkansas Derby Saturday...disposing of odds-on favorite CUPID in the process to win. 

The Steve Asmussen trained, Ricardo Santana ridden thoroughbred blew the break and was dead last when the front-runners hit the half-mile mark. No worries. Santana started a prolonged drive that started along the rail, swung to the outside on the homestretch turn and had the late runner passing the tiring front-runners and holding off late running contenders Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore by two lengths. 

For Paulie, it was a late revelation. I'd been told about the horse earlier in the day from a handicapper who I respect greatly. I went back and did the research and decided to add him to my Pk 3, exacta and trifecta plays for Oaklawn. 

And it paid off, especially since Cupid faded to 10th and Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore...two horses I already had in my exotics...filled out the top three. 

Do I think Creator can make a move like that in the Derby? Yes, especially if he doesn't miss the start like he did at Oaklawn. 

Does it change my top three? Not yet. I will list him in fourth though...behind EXAGGERATOR, NYQUIST and BRODY'S CAUSE. 

The burning question here is whether Nyquist will contest the early pace and simply be too hard to catch as they head down that long Churchill Downs stretch? His Florida Derby win was impressive and he was first or second the entire trip before hitting the afterburners and leaving Mohaymen in his wake. 

I've been burned before by horses leading at the top of the Churchill stretch and getting gobbled up by late runners. None of these are a California Chrome or American Pharoah...believe me. 

I do expect the Derby to be won by a late runner, though...and Exaggerator still looks like the most likely guy to do it. I'll equate it to college women's hoops. Syracuse came on strong after being roughed up by a few teams early in the season. Exaggerator took some lumps also but gained from those and is growing into his body now. I still like him. and...there's no UConn in his way. 

<><><><><><><> PAULIE'S 4/18/15 Top Five <><><><><><>

1) Exaggerator
2) Nyquist
3) Brody's Cause
4) Creator
5) Suddenbreakingnews

paulie
xxxxx

Some Early Derby Thoughts...

THREE WEEKS OUT AND THREE HORSES TO CONSIDER

The Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 7th. That's about three weeks out from this writing on April 15th. I've been busy watching a lot of Derby prep races from all over the country and feel safe to say (unless CUPID destroys the field Saturday in massive fashion in the Arkansas Derby) that I have three horses that I'm looking at as the next Kentucky Derby winner currently. In order...

1) EXAGGERATOR

What this horse did in the Santa Anita Derby slop was simply amazing. Starting in the backstretch and circling the field. Pulling away in the homestretch as if (to quote the PA announcer's call that day) "the others were tied to the guardrail" . I can only imagine what he might do on a fast track where the hold and footing is better. And if it rains Derby Day...forget about it. He could win by 10 lengths. Kent Desmoureaux rides for his brother, another wise guy angle.  To say I'm excited about his chances is no.... exaggeration. 

2) NYQUIST

The big Bob Baffert runner destroyed the competition in the Florida Derby. The only knock on him is that because he is out of Uncle Mo, people are wondering if he can get 1 1/4 miles effectively. 

I think he can and will be leading this Derby until Exaggerator runs by him. In Nyquist's favor, he's beat Exaggerator three times already. That, of course, means nothing on Derby Day. 

3) BRODY'S CAUSE

You have to like the way he exploded down the short Keeneland Stretch to win going away. And he's very capable of exploding down the longer Churchill stretch on Derby Day. The question is...will it matter or be in time to run down Nyquist or keep up with Exaggerator's run. It is a horse to consider in the exotics. 

Things can change in three weeks. These top three might change also...but for now...they are the way I'm thinking. 

paulie
xxxxx

The Bench

A couple of months ago, Sonja and I decided to have a memorial bench put up for her late mother Amy in one of the two places where she liked to observe nature. The choices were either The Parklands or Bernheim Forest.

Both had their merits and she liked them both about the same. The deciding factor was a story I related to Sonja about a drive her Mom and I made shortly before she went into the hospital for the final time.

It was fall and I would take Amy on car rides 3-4 times a week back then. The process was to load up her oxygen and other necessities and then take off on a 2-3 hour trip...driving rural areas and enjoying the scenery or going to one of the area parks or preserves.

One of these afternoon involved driving to Paul's Point in Bernheim and watching the leaves change
in the valley below. We had sandwiches, she was breathing pretty good that day and really didn't want to leave...but it was getting dark and Amy did not like to be on the road (driving or as a passenger) at night.

It was a good day for her. Drives helped release some of the anxiety attacks she suffered from at the end. The struggle to breath is a scary and trepidation mind process. I remember the asthma attacks I had as a child. Middle of the night panic, relieved by inhaler or Adrenalin shots...depending on the severity.

Sonja loves that view for the meadow at the summit of the point as well and we inquired about the spot for a bench. We notified relatives as well. We ordered the bench and a plate to go on it.

The bench was placed on Wednesday 23rd. No ceremony or formalities. We made the 22 mile drive to Bernheim and took a few pictures. Sonja is musing over maybe spreading some of Amy's ashes in the area. The view is beautiful.. A good place for reflection, meditation or just letting your mind go while gazing into the hills and valley across the way.

I think Amy, even in her sometimes grouchy way, would approve. Maybe she'll look down upon the area and remember that good afternoon there. Maybe there is peace and comfort for her now...the struggle with breath, facing death and so much more she wanted to do. Time ran out on her. Time will run out on us all eventually.

Slowly, we adjust. I spend most day out at her house...going through the process of packing boxes,..going through paperwork...room by room getting the house packed up and ready to be sold eventually. There is 50+ years of accumulation, memories, mementos, junk, treasures and items to be determined upon. Sonja helps when she can. Final decisions on placement rest with her.

I think back to those drives, those places we went, those conversations we had and I hope they were of some comfort and relief for her. She had gotten to where she hated being in the house. For what reasons she'd never say...but while able, she would jump at the opportunity to escape it for a few hours.

She has escaped it, and the worldly day-by-day trappings for good, now. I hope she is in a place where there is peace.

Louisville radio needs more than just The Cardinal Couple Radio Hour

Cards Radio 790 and 93.9 The Ville have 336 hours of broadcast time available to them each week. Additionally, 680 AM also has separate shows than 93.9...so add a few more hours of unique broadcasting time that is available. 

None of the three have any shows about women's sports at UofL.

Howie Lindsey is nice enough to dedicate 15 minutes a week to CARDINAL COUPLE to let us discuss women's sports with him on the Howie Show. Jody Demling mentions women's sports almost every day on his Cardinal Insider program on WKRD 790. 93.9 also offers The Jeff Walz show once a week during basketball season. 

There is a ton of network programming on each channel. There are other locally based broadcasts that feature other websites and men's sports. There are idiots, braggarts, self-proclaimed authorities and high and mighty, pompous prognosticators on the air. There are horse racing shows on Cards Radio and The Ville.

But no women's sports shows.

I took the issue to 93.9 programming director Drew Deener. I got a nice "thanks...but no thanks" brief reply. I asked a "higher up" at Clear Channel about the issue. This person's response (I'm with-holding the name and gender...because it would surprise a lot of you) was that women's sports don't create advertising dollars and Clear Channel is ALL about the money. 

I've mentioned it to Louisville coaches, administrators and athletic department personnel. They all lament that lack of coverage but don't have the "kryptonite" to bring it to fruition.

We appreciate our chance to bring you The Cardinal Couple Radio Hour each week at 100.9 WCHQ - Crescent Hill Radio. We're optimistic that the station will double it's listening radius soon and we might be able to be heard in Prospect, Fern Creek, Fairdale and Valley Station. It's a show we'll never abandon.

But is the prospect of having a one-hour show a week devoted to Louisville women's sports so unappealing that the two channels in town that are sports-oriented won't touch it?

Hell, we're not asking for prime time on WHAS, WAMZ, WQMF or WAKY...just an hour somewhere on a station that gets decent arbitron ratings. 

You can voice your thoughts on this by sending a few e-mails if you think UofL women's sports are worthy of a show on 680, 790 or 93.9. 

Let Drew Deener know. Let John Salzman know. Let Tom Jurich and Dr. Jim Ramsey know. It's time for this glass ceiling to end.

We don't care if it's us or someone else. Just give the women a break here. Equality and fairness aside...there are some wonderful things going on in women's sports in this town. 

Mainstream media needs to recognize and give some time up for it.

A Christmas Story

Many years ago, I lived in Indianapolis for a few years. It was a job that brought me there...out of college for a few years and way before I met Sonja. I was fairly young, full of ambition and lived life with abandon and fearlessness. I had a girlfriend, a local bar I hung out at, a group of guys I played softball and bowled with and a nice apartment with great neighbors. 

I would come back to Louisville occasionally to visit family and friends...weekend stays mostly...crashing at my parents' house for a couple of nights and driving back to Indy on Sunday night. 

I planned to come in for Christmas one of those years...the plan was to attend a Christmas Eve party and then spend Christmas with my parents...heading back to Indy the following day. We worked a half-day that Christmas Eve Day and several of us met at a local establishment after work to have lunch and a few beverages. 

I hadn't done any Christmas shopping yet. Back then, my protocol was to go out on Christmas Eve Day, buy a few spur-of-the moment gifts and then distribute them to friends in Indy...taking the rest back to Louisville for family and friends. 

After a few beverages, I said my goodbyes to the gathering and went about the process of shopping. There was a big mall near our place of work and I worked my way through it among the hordes of last-minute shoppers. I then went to visit several friends, dropped off my gifts, had a few more beverages and prepared to head south to Louisville. 

I stopped at a beverage shoppe near my apartment to pick up a few items for the drive and was casually chatting to the cashier when my eye caught a rather shabbily dressed young woman standing in the wine section. I remarked something...I don't remember what...to the cashier and she revealed she had been watching her...a potential shop-lifter in her opinion. I remember wishing her well with that and left. 

Sitting in my car, I decided to watch and see if there would be any excitement inside the shop. After a few minutes, the woman went to the door, was stopped, her bag searched and finally allowed to leave after a brief animated discussion. The woman walked outside, sat on a bench outside the store and...visibly trembling...reached into her bag and produced a pack of cigarettes. She lit one up and then put her head into her hands. She was crying. 

Something came over me. I sensed something was amiss here and exited the car. I approached her, she looked up at me, tears rolling down her cheeks and I asked if there was anything I could do for her. She wiped the tears from her cheeks and began her story. 

She was homeless. Things weren't working out with her parents. She was young and had left Chicago several months ago to live with a friend in hopes of finding a job in Indy. It didn't work out and the "friend" turned out to have bad intentions toward her. After beating beaten by him one evening she left, broke and without transportation. This had occurred several days ago and she had been wandering the streets since...with just a bag and the clothes on her body. She had been sleeping in an abandoned garage near the liquor store and asking people for food and money. She had collected very little. She was hungry, tired and had decided to steal a bottle of wine, get good and drunk and then step off a bridge down the street into an icy creek below...but changed her mind at the last minute. She said there was something that she needed to do first.

I listened to the story. I made a decision. I asked her if there was anyone she knew she could stay with. She thought about that a minute and said that her parents would probably take her back in but she was ashamed to call them. I asked her name. It was Mary. She was a beautiful 19 yr. old girl with long but matted brown hair and a cute, turned up nose. 

I had plans. I had things to do. I thought about if I was in the same position. I made a decision.

I told her that suicide was a coward's way out and if it took the rest of the day, week or year....I would not let her do such a thing. I asked her if she would like a ride to Chicago. To go home. She was surprised. She asked if I was going there. I told her I had no pressing commitments and that I would like to take her to get her some food and drive her back to her home. 

She had no idea who I was. Yet, she put her trust in me. She said she would like that. I drove to a fast-food place and told her to order whatever she wanted. We got the food, she ravenously devoured it as I got on I-65 for the three-hour drive to the Windy City.

Along the way, I encouraged her to place a call to her parents...to tell them she was coming home. She was hesitant at first but finally agreed to do so and we took an exit and stopped at a phone booth. I gave her change, she made the call...spoke for quite some time and got back in the car. She was smiling. She said they had been very worried about her and wanted her home. 

As we drove, we talked. I don't recall the whole conversation but I remember parts. She had longed freedom and independence. She had graduated from high school but was stuck in a dead-end job in Chicago and decided it was time to move on. The guy she went to stay with had been a boyfriend in the past. He had changed. She spoke about the abuse, the forced sex, the beatings and the degradation. 

When we got to the rest stop near Chicago, I suggested she maybe wash up a bit. After that, we continued on. She was a delight to talk to...and she innocently inquired what my plans originally had been. I told her that I was headed to see my parents but it could wait. She got a bit nervous as we turned onto the street where her parents lived. She asked me to stop. She had a cigarette and asked me what she should say to them. I remember saying to her something along the lines of just being honest and frank. 

We pulled in the driveway. We sat in the car. She looked at me and asked if I would walk her to the door. A cold, blustery wind greeted us as we walked the sidewalk to the front door. It opened...and a man, women and little girl came running out. Embraces followed and I watched with a feeling of satisfaction. The man approached me. A short, heavy-set man with a receding hairline. He extended a hand and thanked me for bringing his daughter home. He invited me in but I declined...thanked him but told him I had to be going. 

Mary looked at me with eyes full of tears and gratitude. She asked how she could ever repay me for the trip. I smiled and told her that just seeing the family reunion was payment enough. She asked how she could get in touch with me. I dug out my wallet and handed her a business card. 

They gathered around me and hugged me. I looked at the little girl and told her to have a very, merry Christmas. She looked up at me and said:

"I will. You brought my mommy home." 

A daughter that hadn't come up once in the trip.

I headed to Louisville, arriving at the very end of the party I had planned on attending. I told my story. I slept very well that night in my old bed at my parents. 

I heard from Mary about a month later. She was going to enroll in a community college and try to start anew. She was working part-time as a waitress at a restaurant. She wondered if I would be available for a visit. She was coming back to Indy to collect her belongings but was afraid to confront the asshole alone. I assured her that me and several big, strong softball-playing friends of mine would be glad to accompany her. 

And, it went without a hitch. The asshole wasn't even there..had left the front door unlocked. That disappointed me and my friends. We were ready to apply some "frontier justice"...

Before she returned to Chicago, I asked if she would like to dine with me. She agreed enthusiastically. Dinner at my place. We combined our cooking skills to make a wonderful meal, had a few glasses of wine and I suggested she sleep in the spare bedroom and make the drive home the next morning. She called to tell parents and her daughter. 

Early that morning, asleep in my bed...I felt a brief rustle, someone climbing in and felt an arm drape over me.

"I've decided how I can repay you for all your kindness." she whispered in my ear. 

I won't go into details. You can probably guess what happened. It was a surprise but loving, sensual, delightful and ...repetitive. When she departed later that morning, she smiled at me and said that there were few heroes in this world...but I was hers and she would forever be in debt to me. We kissed and she drove away. 

That was in the 1980's. I left Indy a few years later and returned to Louisville, where I've been ever since.

Today, Mary is married, has three more children...all four of them grown and out in the world making their way... and a husband of 30+ years who is a truck driver. She got her degree as a medical assistant and works in the office of a Chicago pediatrician. I get a call from her each year around Christmastime. She sends photos of the kids and we also stay in touch via the INTERNET. We never have seen each other again...but she has a 34 year-old son, named Paul that has Sykes-like features and looks. 

I asked her about it once...in an e-mail, whether this child was mine or not. Her response was {paraphrased...I have forgotten the original words} :

"Miracles happen. Paul is a wonderful young man. I can't say for sure whether he is yours or not...I met Jerry about a week after visiting you one day, when I was working at the   restaurant, we hit it off and we were "active" pretty quickly. Paul and all my children are greatly loved by Jerry and I. Jerry knows nothing about our night. He is Paul's dad. He knows you as a stranger who provided kindness when I was at the lowest point in my life. We'll leave it there. " 

We talked today. She expressed sorrow over the death of my mother-in-law. Her mother isn't doing too well and is in a nursing home. We shared stories. She was having the kids and her Dad come to the house. They would go visit her mom later. The conversation was heart-felt. As always, we vowed to get together soon. Someday, perhaps, we will. 

A random encounter. An act of kindness. Maybe life-saving, certainly life-changing.

We do what we can in this world. Sometimes it makes a difference, sometimes not. it is all part of the plan, the destiny and the course we navigate. Sometimes, we know not why...but...it is all connected and all relevant. 

Merry Christmas.