Thurby -- 5/5/22 -- Thursday Picks at Churchill

 

Welcome to Thurby !  

The Thursday races at Churchill Downs are commonly referred to "Louisville's Day at the Track" and an 11 race card is being offered today. 

If you go, you might want to consider a poncho. Rain is expected in the afternoon. 

I've handicapped the race and have all 11 races below. I'll jump back in later this morning with any scratches or chances, so be sure to check back

****************************************UPDATED 12:20 P.M.************************************* 

RACE 1

5 -- THE BOSS FACTOR

7 --  HIGH SPIRITS

8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL

3 -- HIGHER AUTHORITY

RACE 2 

1 -- EMPIRE OF MY OWN

6  -- DIVINE GRACE

4 -- DEVIOUS DAME

7 -- YOU CHOSE WISELY

RACE 3 

5 -- COVE BLUE

1 --RYE HUMOR    scratched

6 -- MUY CARO

9 -- DAVID'S GEM

2 -- ABUELO NUNO

RACE 4

6 -- BABY YODA

7 -- DIVINE LEADER

5 -- THE QUEENS JULES

3 -- WINDY CITY'RED

RACE 5 

4 -- ADVANCED PLACEMENT (scratched)

9 -- ENOUGH ALREADY

12 -- STICKY ISSUE

5 -- TWIRLING BLUES

8 -- FIELD MARSHALL

RACE 6 

4 -- BRONZE HALO

1 -- BIG BLUE LINE

7 -- DUAL THREAT

6 -- GUT FEELING  (scratched)

3 -- GROUP EIGHTEEN

RACE 7 

 4 -- DOWNTOWN ABBY

7 -- BELLE RUBELLE

2 -- SOCIAL DILEMNA

8 -- FLASHY CHARGE

RACE 8 

2 -- BEATBOX  (scratched)

5 -- MR DUMAS

9 -- GRAY'S FABLE

6 -- SET PIECE (scratched)

4 -- KENTUCKY GHOST    (scratched)

11 -- MAX K.O.

1 -- MONARCHS GLEN

RACE 9

1 -- TOM'S REGRET

11 -- HURRICANE DEBBIE

9 -- SIMPLY SUPER

3 -- KING ADCOCK

RACE 10

2 -- BROOKE MARIE

6 -- CATCH A BID

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

7 -- GOIN GOOD

RACE 11 

5 -- SOMEBODY LOVES ME

10 -- TACHLIS

6 -- SWEET TRUFFLES

2 -- SHE'S GREEKANDSLEEK

Best of luck to you today !

paulie

Early Oaks and Derby Thoughts --Tuesday 5/3

 Now that the post positions have been assigned, let's take a look at the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby/

In the Oaks, I've liked three horses for awhile now, and that didn't change with the post assignment:

OAKS

10 -- Kathleen O  -- The Gulfstream Oaks win was impressive

7 -- Echo Zulu -- She showed she does no like to be passed in the Fair Grounds Oaks

4 -- Nest -- Her four-wide move on the turn and dominating stretch run in Ashland?  WOW !!

A longshot to consider:

1 -- Sacred Oath --Tried the boys, held her own and got third in Ark, Derby

:

In the Derby, I've wrestled with my top three for awhile now Here's what I got;

3 -- Epicenter -- I think his win in the Louisiana Derby was impressive. Rated, waited, pounced and pulled away.

1 -- Mo Donegal -- The win in the Wood was a closing nail biter but he flew that last furlong!

10 -- Zandon -- What a run in the Blue Grass ! From last to first and negotiated the traffic.  

A longshot to consider:

5 -- Smile Happy. -- 2nd in the Blue Grass and led in the stretch. That bump he got from Emmanual in the stretch probably cost him the win, in my opinion. 

paulie

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 4/30

 

Opening night at Churchill Downs tonight and the start of Derby Week in Louisville. 

A nice opening card at Churchill, I'll concentrate on the late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) but will also offer a few suggestions in a couple of the earlier races. POST TIME IS 6 P.M. TONIGHT

Good luck tonight!

(I'll return with any changes/scratches later in the afternoon) 

UPDATED 6:50 p.m.

RACE 7 

5 -- BANDMATE

3 -- MY FAVORITE UNCLE

4 -- STRONG LIGHT

10 -- TRICOLOUR

RACE 8 

10 -- BAY STORM

6 -- STERLING MISS

4 -- CLARA PEETERS scratched

2 -- MAMBA WAMBA

9 -- spicy marg

RACE 9 

3 -- BAYERNESS

5 -- CARIBBEAN CAPER  scratched

4 -- CLUB CAR

2 -- CHEETARA

RACE 10 

6 -- OUT WORK'N

5 -- ISTHMIAN  scratched

4 -- KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF

7 -- MY  HOT TODDY

1 -- VASILEVSKIY

-- #5 SPEED BOAT LOOKS THE BEST OF THE FIELD IN RACE 1.

-- #2 MY MAN FLINSTONE DROPS DOWN TO HIS LOWEST CLAIMING PRICE IN SOME TIME IN RACE 2. FIRE SALE? KENNY MCPEEK CLAIMED HIM BACK. BULLET WORK LAST OUT. 

-- #1 FRILLS ON A THREE RACE WIN STREAK. MAYBE A SINGLE IN RACE 3? 

-- #6 MISS YEARWOOD JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER IN RACE 6. LEPAROUX STAYS ON BOARD FOR IAN WILKES. 

paulie

-- 

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/23/22

 

A nice Saturday Card at Keeneland today, with the ELKHORN Stakes being the feature (race nine) 

HERE'S WHAT I GOT IN RACES 7-10

(Updated at 12:25 p.m.)

RACE 7

5 -- GAM'S MISSION

10 -- NICENO

8 -- MARKET REPORT

3 -- SWEET ENOUGH

RACE 8 

5 -- WARRANT

3 -- PROXY

3 -- DYNAMIC ONE

7 -- SCALDING

RACE 9

5 -- CHANNEL MARKER

1 -- BEMMA'S BOY

3 -- TWO EMMY'S

4 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY (scratched)

9 -- ANOTHER MYSTERY

RACE 10 

3 -- UNIKEE

1 -- GREAT ESCAPE  (scratched)

4 -- TOUGH TO TAME  (scratched)

9 -- B SUDD

2 -- CONDEMN

1A -- MOMENTUS

(I'll be back later today if any scratches occur, but the weather looks perfect for racing in Lexington)

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/16/22

 

Great card at Keeneland today, with three stakes races -- including the Jenny Wiley -- in the 11 races. Let's hope the rain stays away. I'm look at the Late Pick 4 (races 8-11)

RACE 8 

12 -- ELLE Z

3 -- CAMPANELLE

5 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

11 -- GOIN' GOOD

RACE 9 

2 -- IN OUR TIME

9 -- TAWNY PORT

7 -- MAJOR GENERAL 

11 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT

RACE 10 

3 -- SHANTISARA

4 -- REGAL GLORY

5 -- NAVRATILOVA

1 -- SCARABEA

RACE 11 

4 -- HIGHLY MOTIVATED

2 -- ESCAPE ROUTE

8 -- DUCALE

3 -- SOUP AND SANDWICH

Good luck today !  If scratches occur, I'll be back with the changes/updates. 

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 4/9/22

 Yes, they are back at Keeneland for the spring meet an a great Saturday Card awaits, with Kentucky Derby prep The Blue Grass Stakes as the feature

I'll look at races 6-9 today. A Pick 4 available and four challenging stakes races in the sequence.

RACE 6 -- THE APPALACHIAN 

3 -- SPENARELLA

4 -- DOLCE ZEL 

7 -- OURAIKA

2 -- AN AGENT MISTAKE

RACE 7 -- THE MADISON

3 -- LADY ROCKET

5 -- BELL'S THE ONE

6 -- KIMARI

4 -- JUST ONE TIME

RACE 8 -- THE SHAKERTOWN

10 -- GOLDEN PAL

5 -- BARRAZA

11 -- JUST MIGHT

6 -- THE LIR JET

RACE 9 -- BLUE GRASS

10 -- SMILE HAPPY

4 -- ZANDON

6 -- EMMANUEL

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL

I'll update later this afternoon with any scratches.

Irad Ortiz owned the track yesterday on opening day with three straight wins to close out the day and he's well positioned with mounts to have another successful day Saturday.  It'll be a chilly Saturday with high of 48 (good day for Burgoo !) but low chance of rain for the card. 

Good luck and play 'em however you like...

paulie

ARKANSAS, JEFF RUBY AND FLORIDA DERBY PICKS 4/2/22

 A big day on the Derby trail today, with prep races Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and Floridaa Derby at Gulfstream

I like SECRET OATH at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. The filly is undefeated at the track and shold best the boys in at 1-1/8th distance. Give me CYBERKNIFE for second and DOPPELGANGER to show. 

In Florida, SIMPLIFICATION is the top pick, followed by WHITE ABARRIO for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY to show. 

Let's not forget the Jeff Ruby Stakes up at Turfway today either, where TIZ THE BOMB tries the polytrack against a full field of contenders, including a couple of others I like, too in CONSTITUTIONLAWYER and STOLEN BASE 

I'll try the Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream today for wagering. Four stakes races to close out the card and a huge "Hall of Fame" jockey colony riding...

*******************UPDATED At 1:53 PM*********************

RACE 11 

1 -- MISCHEVIOUS KISS

9 -- MY PHILLY TWIRL

6 -- SHAD NATION

8 -- AMBITIEUSE

RACE 12 

7 -- KATHLEEN O 

5 -- GODDESS OF FIRE

2 -- CATICHE  (Scratched)

4 -- RUNNING LEGACY

3 -- AMANIE'S IMAGE

RACE 13 

9 -- ENGLISH BEA

7 -- PHANTOM CURRENCY

3 -- WOLFIE'S DYNAHOST

2 -- SCARLETT SKY

RACE 14 

3 -- SIMPLIFICATION

7 -- WHITE ABARRIO

6 -- CHARGE IT

9 -- O CAPTAIN

Good luck today, and I'll pop back in with any scratches/changes today as needed -- rain is expected at Gulfstream today. 

paulie