Churchill Downs Results from 4/29/17

The Handicappers took on the late pick 4 at Churchill Downs and had some big successes on opening night. A beautiful evening for racing and some beautiful payoffs. The trio produced four exactas, three trifectas, two superfectas and the late pick 3 and pick 4....which paid over $1000!  Let's look at the stats.  


PAULIE gave out 16 horses he hoped would return payouts. Out of those, seven did. He had two winners, two seconds and three thirds. He also hit two exactas and two trifectas. His best bet, value play and top jockey did not hit, though. Give him 23 points for the sequence. 

SCOTT also had 16 horses answer the call to the post. Of those, 10 paid off. He had three winners, four seconds and three thirds. He had three exactas, two trifectas and two superfectas. He also predicted the late pick 3. Unfortunately, his best bet, value play and top jockey were not winners. A very good day for Scott, who finishes second with 40 points.

ARCHIE sent 16 runners to the gate. 11 of those (out of a possible 12) hit the toteboard. Four winners, four seconds and three thirds for him. Four exactas, three trifectas, two superfectas and both the Pick 3's in the sequence and late Pick 4. His best bet and top jockey failed to win...but his value play (Endless Thyme) did win the 11th race. Archie wins the day with a spectacular 58 points.

Pick threes that pay $130 and $112 on 50 cent wagers. A pick four that pays $1063.05. Two exactas that pay over $100. All free advice that we give you every week. We are the "Wizards of Winners". Would you trade $144 for $1063? Sure you would. If you had followed Archie's picks, that's what you would have done.

Overall, the standings are: 

Archie -- 354 points
Scott -- 291 points
Paulie -- 245 points

To hear yesterday's radio show...go here: HANDICAPPING HEROES 4/29



paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Selections for 4/29/17

It is the opening night at Churchill Downs and the beginning of a great spring meet under the Twin Spires. The Handicappers are taking on the late Pick 4 at Churchill that involves a little of everything. Claiming, Maiden Special Weight, Stakes and Maiden Claiming events. Let's see what the fellas came up with! 


RACE 8 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 49,000 5 1/2 FURLONGS


PAULIE

10 - Sweet Invention
3 - Miss Kentucky
4 - Bombona
5 - Shar Ran


SCOTT 

10 - Sweet Invention
3 - Miss Kentucky
6 - Gemsaresparkling
1 - Promise of Spring

ARCHIE

3 - Miss Kentucky
10 - Sweet Invention
5 - Shar Ran
6 - Gemsaresparkling


RACE 9 WILLIAM WALKER STAKES $100,000 6 FURLONGS


PAULIE

1 - Syndergaard
5 - Classic Cotton
6 - Conquest Wildcat
7 - Silver Bullion

SCOTT

1 - Syndergaard
6 - Conquest Wildcat
3 - En Hanse 
4 - The Money Monster

ARCHIE

1 - Syndergaard
6 - Conquest Wildcat
4 - The Money Monster
3 - En Hanse


RACE 10 STARTER ALLOWANCE $20,000  6 FURLONGS


PAULIE

8 - Hotbutteredsoul
6 - Proven Warrior
7 - Restless Rambler
1 - Turn Back Time


SCOTT

7 - Restless Rambler
6 - Proven Warrior
5 - Almost English
1A - Aztec Lion

ARCHIE

1A - Aztec Lion
6 - Proven Warrior
7 - Restless Rambler
5 - Almost English


RACE 11 MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000 7 FURLONGS


PAULIE

8 - Chocolate Bouquet
9 - Greeley and Gold
7 - Cheatin Heart
5 - Pop Tarts Princess

SCOTT

10 - Abboccato
12 - Endless Thyme
9 - Greeley and Gold
7 - Cheatin Heart

ARCHIE

8 - Chocolate Bouquet
10 - Abboccato
12 - Endless Thyme
7 - Cheatin Heart



BEST BET OF THE DAY

PAULIE - 1 - Syndergaard (Race 9) 
SCOTT - 1 - Syndergaard (Race 9) 
ARCHIE - 1 Syndergaard (Race 9 ) 

VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY

PAULIE - 9 - Greeley and Gold (Race 11) 
SCOTT - 4 - Almost English (Race 10) 
ARCHIE - 12 - Endless Thyme (Race 11) 

TOP JOCK OF THE SEQUENCE

PAULIE - John Velazquez
SCOTT - Ricardo Santana
ARCHIE - Brian Hernandez, Jr



Be sure to catch Handicapping Heroes on the radio...Saturdays at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM in Louisville and streaming live at www.crescenthillradio.com
Download the WCHQ app! 

Here is Scott and Paulie's Facebook Live segment: 

SCOTT AND PAULIE SELECTIONS LIVE FOR 4/29/17

Looking at the Kentucky Oaks -- Paulie picks

I've come up with my top five for the Kentucky Oaks. Scott and Archie will be providing theirs also as time allows. Hold your nose...and away we go!


1) Miss Sky Warrior. She's won her last five, including an impressive romp in the Gazelle at Aqueduct. Paco Lopez never really asked her...and she won going away...maybe ten lengths. Watch it below...

SKY WARRIOR IN GAZELLE

2) Paradise Woods, at 8-1, blitzed them all in front-running fashion in the Santa Anita Oaks. A very impressive win. Richard Mandella has a hot one. Watch the race below:

PARADISE WOODS IN SANTA ANITA OAKS

3) Ever So Clever. A very nice win in the Fantasy at Oaklawn. A nice stretch run to catch the leader and pulling away as they reached the wire. That's a long stretch at Churchill. This one could relish it.

EVER SO CLEVER IN FANTASY

4) Salty. She ran her eyeballs out to win the Gulfstream Oaks with a nice sustained move from the backstretch to complete domination down the stretch.

SALTY WINS GP OAKS

5) Vexatious.  Battled traffic in deep stretch and finally got clear to turn on the rush...finished third to Ever So Clever...but a clean trip and added stretch in Oaks could get her there first.

VEXATIOUS IN FANTASY

Top Five Derby Contenders 4/25/17

TOP FIVE DERBY CONTENDERS 4/25/17

It is truly hard to believe that we are just 11 days away from the running of the Kentucky Derby! I have donned the wizard hat and contemplated all the perimeters and possibilities, applied sound logic and pure buffoonery. Using all my powers and consulting with various forms of internet information...I have come up with this esteemed decision. 

My picks from last week haven't changed any...


1) ALWAYS DREAMING. Todd Pletcher trained. Probable jockey 
Johnny Velasquez. He's being shipped to Churchill today. Watch for him. 

2) GIRVIN. I like the way he ran in Louisiana. I don't quite understand why
Joe Sharp is training him at Keeneland..but he'll ship to Churchill on Friday.

3) CLASSIC EMPIRE. Two for two at Churchill. Julian Leparoux on board. 2 yr. old of the year. A lot to like here...

4) IRISH WAR CRY. Jockey Rajiv Maragh might be the "feel good" story here with his comeback after injury in 2015. Winner of the Wood...he has a shot. 

5) McCRAKEN. "Crackers" loves Churchill. Ian Wilkes will have him ready to roll. He needed the third place finish in the Bluegrass. He's "home" now.

Hear Paulie's on Soundcloud here: PAULIE TOP 5


Archie's picks have not changed from last week: 

1) GUNNERVERA. Archie is high on this runner bouncing back from his third-place finish in the Florida Derrby. The horse has shown "bounce" trend in his career...good race, bad race.

2) CLASSIC EMPIRE: His win in the Arkansas Derby was enough to move him up in Archie's rankings. That long Churchill stretch and coming back to a track he loves can't hurt, right?

3) McCRAKEN. Another that could improve now that he has a race under his belt. The home track angle applies here...he's happy to be back home and the workouts are showing that.

4) TAPWRIT. Didn't fire so well in the Blue Grass Stakes (5th.) but comes out of the Todd Pletcher barn and should be respected.

5) ALWAYS DREAMING. The Florida Derby win was huge. Can he pull off that kind of performance in Kentucky?

Results from Saturday 4/22/17

The Handicappers took on the challenging late Pick 4 at Keeneland on Saturday and knocked it out of the park. They provided tons of winners, the late Pick 4, exactas, trifectas, superfectas and daily doubles. Here the specifics..


PAULIE ended up with 14 runners breaking from the gate after a couple of scratches. He had seven of them hit the board. Three winners and four second place finishes. He also hit three exactas. Unfortunately, his best bet of the day, value pick and top jock of the sequence did not produce. Give Paulie 23 points.


SCOTT had 14 go to the post also. Out of those eight made money. He handicapped three winners, three places and two shows. Two exactas and a trifecta also for Mr. Gold Room. The late Pick 3 also. His value play and top jock of the sequence didn't win but his best bet of the day won (Awestruck). Scott ends up with 34 points. 


ARCHIE had a banner day. 15 of his selections participated. 10 of them finished in the top three! That's an incredible 83% success rate. Four winners, three seconds and three thirds. Three exactas, two trifectas, a superfecta, two Pick threes and the Pick 4. Although his best bet of the day and value play fell short, his top Jock (Joel Rosario) won two of the four races. "The Arch" ends with a very impressive 57 points for the day. 

Do return payouts like $388.60, $161.40 and $98.90 on 50 cent wagers impress you? That's what we're giving away free here with our handicapping reports. 


Here's yesterday's show replay:  HANDICAPPING HEROES 4/22/17


CUMULATIVE TOTALS

Archie increases his lead and now has 296 points. Scott follows with 251 points. Paulie can "see em all" with 222 points. 


paulie
xxxxx

Selections for Saturday, April 22nd.

The handicappers have set their sites on Keeneland and studied the late Pick 4 at the historic Lexington track. It's liable to be a wet and sloppy go of it up there today...so put on your boots, raincoat and open your umbrella as we go through the picks. 


RACE 7 -- Claiming $50,000 --  7 Furlongs


PAULIE

6 - Westfest
5 - Enchantera
1 - Entertainer
3 - Stone

SCOTT

3 - Stone
6 - Westfest
7 - Town Classic
1 - Entertainer

ARCHIE

1 - Entertainer
6 - Westfest
7 - Town Classic
5 - Enchantera


RACE 8 -- Allowance  $72,000 -- 6 furlongs


PAULIE 

2 - Kidnap
3 - Lenstar
5 - Bam Bam Bryan
6 - Aquamarine

SCOTT

3 - Lenstar
5 - Bam Bam Bryan
6 - Aquamarine
4 - Mr. Sheen

ARCHIE

5 - Bam Bam Bryan
6 - Aquamarine
3 - Lenstar
2 - Kidnap


RACE 9  Elkhorn (Grade 2) $250,000 -- 1 1/2 Miles -- TURF


PAULIE 

9 - Charming Kitten
8 - Taghleeb
6 - Bullards Alley
2 - Danishy Dynaformer

SCOTT

8 - Taghleeb
4 - Itsinthepost
6 - Bullards Alley
10 - Roman Approval

ARCHIE

5 - Bigger Picture
1 - Interpol
4 - Itsinthepost
8 - Taghleeb


RACE 10 -- MSW $70,000 -- (about) 7 Furlongs


PAULIE

3 - Dreaming of Della
2 - Awestruck
7 - Golden Domer
1 - Loran Holiday

SCOTT

2 - Awestruck
6 - Conquest Classic
7 - Golden Domer
8 - Naples Mist

ARCHIE

2 - Awestruck
7 - Golden Domer
9 - Clever Serve
6 - Conquest Classic


BEST BET OF THE DAY

PAULIE - 3 - Dreaming of Della - 10th Race
SCOTT - 2 -  Awestruck  - 10th Race
ARCHIE - 5 - Bam Bam Bryan - 8th Race


VALUE PLAY

PAULIE - 6 - Westfest - 7th Race
SCOTT -  6 - Bullards Alley - 9th Race
ARCHIE - 1 - Interpol - 9th Race

JOCK OF THE SEQUENCE

PAULIE  - Paco Lopez
SCOTT -  Luiz Saez
ARCHIE - Joel Rosario 

Watch as Scott and Pauie do their selections live on Facebook at this link: SCOTT AND PAUL DISCUSS THE SELECTIONS

BE sure to catch HANDICAPPING HEROES live today at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM 

LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES LIVE

Top Derby Five

We are, indeed, getting closer to Derby. With the final prep races in the books now...let's take a look on how they affect our previous Derby rankings.

PAULIE:

1) ALWAYS DREAMING. I am still big on this Todd Pletcher runner and the way he won the Florida Derby. He's seventh in total points earned.

2) GIRVIN. Winner of the Louisiana Derby, Girvin turned in quite a performance that day and holds a great local interest with trainer Joe Sharp. He's also atop the points earned list.

3) CLASSIC EMPIRE. I was waiting for the Arkansas Derby to see how he would run and he got to the wire just in time with a nice closing move down the stretch. Mark Casse will have him raring to go and the horse loves Churchill.

4) IRISH WAR CRY. He won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and Graham Motion is one of the best in the business at getting them ready.

5) MCCRACKEN. "Mac" drops a little from my previous rankings but I'm still not ready to give up on him. He needed the Bluegrass and finished third. Recent works indicate he's happy to be back at Churchill and he's another great local story with trainer Ian Wilkes.


Here more on these at this link:

DERBY CONTENDERS 4/17/17


ARCHIE has complied an updated list on his top five:

1) GUNNERVERA. Archie is high on this runner bouncing back from his third-place finish in the Florida Derrby. The horse has shown "bounce" trend in his career...good race, bad race.

2) CLASSIC EMPIRE: His win in the Arkansas Derby was enough to move him up in Archie's rankings. That long Churchill stretch and coming back to a track he loves can't hurt, right?

3) McCRACKEN. Another that could improve now that he has a race under his belt. The home track angle applies here...he's happy to be back home and the workouts are showing that.

4) TAPWRIT. Didn't fire so well in the Blue Grass Stakes (5th.) but comes out of the Todd Pletcher barn and should be respected.

5) ALWAYS DREAMING. The Florida Derby win was huge. Can he pull off that kind of performance in Kentucky?


SCOTT offers these as his top six currently. We'll let him toss in an extra...he's been working hard.

1) CLASSIC EMPIRE. In addition to the discussion above, this one was the 2-year old champion last year and did show he can go wide and still make up ground.

2) GIRVIN. Worked four furlongs in 47.8 over at Trackside Training Facility a few days ago with Rosie Napravnik on board. A bit fast than Joe Sharp wanted but he cooled out just fine.

3) ALWAYS DREAMING. Is at Palm Beach Downs in Florida where he recorded a 49.55 for four furlongs work. Johnny Velazquez on board. Unsure if final work will be there or at Churchill.

4) McCRAKEN. He's three for three lifetime at Churchill Downs....including the win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

5) STATE OF HONOR.  Is the second place finish in the Florida Derby good enough to get him to the wire first. He'll need to stay on top for a longer time and longer stretch.

6) CONQUEST MO MONEY. The surprise second place finisher in the Arkansas Derby would need to be supplemented for $200,000 to run in the Derby. He earned $200,000 for his place last out.


-paulie

Results from 4/15/17

Our points leader ARCHIE checks for late breaking news. 

The handicappers handicapped the Arkansas Derby and the Stakes Pick 4 at Keeneland yesterday and met with some successes. Classic Empire proved to be the best in the Arkansas Derby with a stretch run that was quite impressive and will no doubt establish him as one of the favorites...if not the favorite...to win the Kentucky Derby.

We do apologize the our radio show HANDICAPPING HEROES did not make the airwaves until 12:30 yesterday. The Crescent Hill Easter Parade got off to a late start and Crescent Hill Radio decided to extend live coverage of the event  past what they originally planned to. So, basically it was out of our control. We do have the broadcast linked up further down into today's article.

Let's see how the guys did:


PAULIE offered 20 horses to consider. Out of those he had 10 hit the board. Four winners, three seconds and three thirds. He also provided two exactas and two trifectas. Unfortunately, his best bet of the day, value play and top jockey of the sequence did not come through. He ends with 31 points.


SCOTT also put forth 20 runners that made the gate. 11 of those made him money. Three winners, four seconds and four thirds. Scott predicted two exactas and two trifectas. His value play and jockey for the sequence did not win but his best bet of the day (Lady Aurelia) did win convincingly. Scott finished the day with 41 points

Archie celebrates his win with a beer later in the evening
It may be the only known photo of him holding a beer.

ARCHIE provided 20 horses that he thought rated a chance. 10 of those came through. Four winners, four seconds and two shows on the day.

He provided three exactas and two trifectas. His best bet and value play of the sequence were unsuccessful but his top jockey (John Velazquez) did score a win for him.

Give Archie 43 points and a narrow win for the day.





REPLAYS OF RACES BELOW


ARKANSAS DERBY REPLAY


JENNY WILEY REPLAY


LEXINGTON STAKES


CUMULATIVE TOTALS

Archie maintains his lead and now has 239 points. Scott pursues in second with 217. Paulie trails both with 199. 


IF YOU MISSED YESTERDAY'S BROADCAST BECAUSE OF THE CHANGED TIME...HERE IS A LINK WHERE YOU CAN HEAR IT IN IT'S ENTIRETY: 

link:  HANDICAPPNG HEROES 4/15/17


HAPPY EASTER TO ALL OUR READERS AND LISTENERS!

paulie
xxxxx

Selections for Saturday, April 15th

THE HANDICAPPERS turn their thoughts and skills toward two tracks today. The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is the last Derby prep race and they'll try to take that down along with the All Stakes late pick4 at Keeneland. 


ARKANSAS DERBY (Race 11 - Oaklawn) 


Paulie

2 - Classic Empire
12 - Malagacy
4 - Petrov
9 - Untrapped

Archie

12 - Malagacy
2 - Classic Empire
11 - Conquest Mo Money
1 - Rockin Rudy

Scott 

11 - Conquest Mo Money
2 - Classic Empire
12 - Malagacy
6 - Lookin At Lee


KEENELAND RACE 7 -- BenAli  Gr. 3


Paulie

6 - Bird Song
3 - Watershed
7 - Conquest Enforcer
2 - Eagle

Archie

4 - Scuba
6 - Bird Song
3 - Watershed
2 - Eagle

Scott

2 - Eagle
6 - Bird Song
4 - Scuba
7 - Conquest Enforcer


KEENELAND RACE 8 --  GIANT'S CAUSEWAY 


Paulie

7 - Lady Aurelia
4 - Exaggerated
2 - Triple Chelsea
1 - Ruby Notion

Archie

7 - Lady Aurelia
5 - Rapid Rhythm
10 - Pretty Perfection
12 - Miss Katie May

Scott 

7 - Lady Aurelia
10 - Pretty Perfection
4 - Exaggerated
5 - Rapid Rhythm

KEENELAND RACE 9 -- LEXINGTON  Gr. 3

Paulie

4 - No Dozing
10 - West Coast
3 - Senior Investment
1 - Resiliency

Archie

10 - West Coast
6 - Convict Pike
3 - Senior Investment
4 - No Dozing

Scott

6 - Convict Pike
10 - West Coast
4 - No Dozing
1 - Resiliency

KEENELAND RACE 10 -- Jenny Wiley Gr. 1 

Paulie

1 - Lady Eli
6 - Time and Motion
3 - Catch A Glimpse
5 - Kitten's Roar

Archie

1 - Lady Eli
6 - Time and Motion
7 - Illuminant
3 - Catch A Glimpse

Scott

1 - Lady Eli
8 - Quidura
3 - Catch A Glimpse
4 - Dickinson





BEST BETS

Paulie - 4 - No Dozing - Race 9
Archie - 1 - Lady Eli - Race 10
Scott - 7 - Lady Aurelia - Race 8

VALUE PLAY

Paulie - 2 - Triple Chelsea - Race 8
Archie - 4 - Scuba - Race 7
Scott - 6 - Convict Pike - Race 9

JOCK OF THE SEQUENCE

Paulie - Joel Rosario
Archie - John Velazquez
Scott - Joel Rosario



Be sure to catch Handicapping Heroes Saturday at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM or on-line at www.crescenthillradio.com  to get much more information on these selecctions. Download the WCHQ app. and tell your friends! 


Paulie
xxxxx

Updated Derby Contenders

Hard to believe but the Kentucky Derby is less than four weeks away. How did the weekend change the Derby rankings for the handicappers? Tale a look below to see the current rankings from Paulie,

Archie and Scott may follow as well with updated rankings, so be sure to check back....

PAULIE

1) Always Dreaming. Still keeping this Toddie P. runner on top. Go back and review the Florida Derby. You'll know why

2) Girvin. That Louisiana Derby wind continues to look more impressive the more I go back to watch it. OUTSIDE AND MADE THE MOVE to win going away. Nothing out of this last weekend tops that.

3) Gunnevera. I haven't changed my mind on this runner. Made up big ground in his last and Churchill has a long, long stretch.  Still respect.

4) Irish War Cry.  Looked good in winning the Wood and putting away Battalion Runner.  He settled, made his move in the stretch and was the best. It accounts for something, right?

5) McCraken. Not ready to give up on this one just yet...although if CLASSIC EMPIRE runs well this weekend, I might. McCraken obviously needed a race and got a third place finish. We'll see.....

ARKANSAS DERBY

The Arkansas Derby this Saturday at Oaklawn remains the best chance for those on the "points" bubble to get into the 20 horse Kentucky Derby field. With a scoring system of 100 for a win, 40 for second, 20 for third and 10 for fourth...it is conceivable that the top three finishers could gain an entry berth.

Lookin At Lee, Classic Empire, Rockin Rudy, Petrov, Silver Dust, Untrapped, Malagacy and Sonneteer as probables for the race. Malagacy has 50 points and is already one of the top 20...so a win here isn't "do or die". Untrapped has 34 points (20th out of 20 currently in points...so a top four finish would benefit. Classic Empire has 32 points and could use a nice run so that Mark Casse can get him in the Derby. The other five runners probable for the race are not in the top 25 contenders...so a first or second place finish would be needed to make the field on the first Saturday in May.

Quite a few of these met in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn in mid-March. Malagacy got the two length win..and you could have thrown a blanket over Sonneteer, Untrapped and Petrov for second, third and fourth. Lookin At Lee also tested the Rebel

Classic Empire is my early pick here to win with Malagacy second, Petrov third and Untrapped 4th.
One has to wonder how One Liner wold have done against these. He beat several in the Southwest...winning easily by four lengths...but was taken off the Derby trail by trainer Todd Pletcher because of dissatisfaction on the recent works.


TODD PLETCHER ON TOP

Todd could be a very busy man on Derby Day. Five of the horses he trains are in the top twenty points total currently. Always Dreaming (6th), Tapwrit (11th), Malgacy (12th), Patch (17th.) and Battalion Runner (18th) could give Pletcher 1/4th of the field if things stand. Master Plan, another Pletcher runner, is 25th. in the points system and could make the gate if multiple defections occur.


TOP TEN IN POINTS

1. Girvin                                                                6. Always Dreaming
2. Gormley                                                            7. Gunnevera
3. Irap                                                                   8. Practical Joke
4. Irish War Cry                                                     9. J Boys Echo
5. Thunder Snow                                                   10. State of Honor

paulie

Results from 4/8/17 -- Blue Grass, Wood and SA Derby

The Handicappers took on three Derby prep races and the late Pick 4 at Keeneland yesterday and had some successes on a day where favorites were getting upset by some definite long-shots. An already cloudy Derby picture got even murkier by the finishes and the winners in the Wood Memorial (Irish War Cry), Santa Anita Derby (Gormley) and BlueGrass Stakes (Irap). 

Let's see how the numbers rolled for the guys: 


PAULIE put forth 24 runners in the six race selection process and 12 finished in the money. Three winners, four second place finishes and five thirds. He also hit an exacta and trifecta. Unfortunately, his best bet of the day ran third, his value play is still running and top jock of the sequence (Brian Hernandez, Jr) could not get McCraken to the wire first. Paulie finishes with 27 points.

ARCHIE gave us 24 possibilities and 11 of his did finish in the money. Three winners, four places and four shows for the bagel king. He also tallied on two exactas and a trifecta. Archie's best bet was McCraken. His value play didn't hit the board but he did pick up points with Jose Ortiz at jockey in the eighth race. A game effort that scored him 38 points for the day.

SCOTT selected 24 horses and out of those 12 were good at the window. Two winners, six places and four shows for the gatekeeper. Scott provided two exactas and a trifecta as well. His best bet finished out of the money, his value play did the same but he did pick Jose Ortiz as his top jock and Ortiz did score on Paulassilverlining in the 8th. Scott finishes with 39 points and wins the day's contest. 

Out of the six races that the guys handicapped, only one favorite won. The BlueGrass blew apart completely with Irap pulling the upset victory. Gormley added credence to the philosophy he's a "bounce horse" with the SA Derby win and Irish War Cry bested favorite Battalion Runner in the Wood. 

WATCH: WOOD MEMORIAL

WATCH: SANTA ANITA DERBY

WATCH: BLUE GRASS STAKES


CUMULATIVE TOTALS


In the contest, Archie maintained his lead and now has 196 points. Scott still at second with 176 and Paulie can see them all with 168. 

Here is the rebroadcast of Saturday's Show:  HANDICAPPING HEROES 4.8.17


paulie
xxxxx

Selections for Saturday April 8, 2017

Selections for Saturday 4/8/17

The Handicappers punched the clock for overtime in today's picks. Six stakes races...which include three Derby preps and a key Oaks prep race. The late pick four at Keeneland. Here's what the lads came up with. 

To hear the broadcast, go here. HANDICAPPING HEROES 4/8/17

AQUEDUCT -- THE WOOD MEMORIAL


SCOTT: 

2 -- Mo Town
3 -- Battalion Runner
7 -- Cloud Computing
5 -- True Timber

ARCHIE: 

3 -- Battalion Runner
7 -- Cloud Computing
8 -- Irish War Cry
1 -- Glennrichment

PAULIE: 

2 -- Mo Town
3 -- Battalion Runner
8 -- Irish War Cry
7 -- Cloud Computing


SANTA ANITA DERBY 

SCOTT 

9 -- Iliad
8 -- Gormley
3 -- Battle of Midway
11 - Irish Freedom

ARCHIE

9 -- Iliad
2 -- Reach The World
3 -- Battle of Midway
8 -- Gormley

PAULIE

9 -- Iliad
8 -- Gormey
13 -- Royal Mo
6 -- American Anthem



KEENELAND RACE 7 -- THE SHAKERTOWN

SCOTT

7 -- Hogy
3 -- Green Mask
8 -- Partly Mocha
2 -- Rainbow Heir

ARCHIE

2 -- Rainbow Heir
7 -- Hogy
8 -- Partly Mocha
3 -- Green Mask

PAULIE

6 -- Mongolian Saturday
2 -- Rainbow Heir
3 -- Green Mask
7 -- Hogy


KEENELAND  RACE 8 -- THE MADISON

SCOTT

1 -- Paid Up Subscriber
5 -- High Ridge Road
6 -- Paulassilverlining
4 -- Constellation

ARCHIE

5 -- High Ridge Road
2 -- Clothes Fall Off
6 -- Paulassilverlining
1 -- Paid Up Subscriber

PAULIE

2 -- Clothes Fall Off
3 -- Kathballu
5 -- High Ridge Road
6 -- Paulassilverlining


KEENELAND RACE 9 -- THE ASHLAND


SCOTT

3 -- Pretty City Dancer
5 -- Summer Luck
2 -- Elate
6 -- Daddy's Little Darling

ARCHIE

8 -- Tapped
2 -- Elate
3 -- Pretty City Dancer
5 -- Summer Luck

PAULIE

5 -- Summer Luck
6 -- Daddy's Little Darling
8 -- Tapped
3 -- Pretty City Dancer


KEENELAND RACE 10 -- THE BLUEGRASS STAKES


SCOTT

7 -- Practical Joke
2 -- McCraken
3 -- J Boys Echo
4 -- Tapwrit

ARCHIE 

2 -- McCraken
4 -- Tapwrit
7 -- Practical Joke
3 -- J Boys Echo

PAULIE

2 -- McCraken
3 -- J Boys Echo
4 -- Tapwrit
7 -- Practical Joke



VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY

Scott:  8 -- Partly Mocha -- Race 7 
Archie:  5 -- High Ridge Road -- Race 8  
Paulie:  6 -- Mongolian Saturday -- Race 7 


BEST BET OF THE DAY 

Scott:  3 -- Pretty City Dancer -- Race 9 
Archie:  2 -- McCraken -- Race 10
Paulie :  2 -- McCraken -- Race 10


TOP JOCK OF THE SEQUENCE

Scott:  Jose Ortiz
Archie:  Jose Ortiz
Paulie:  Brian Hernandez, Jr


BE SURE to catch the broadcast today at noon at www.crescenthillradio.com


This is one of the funnest and lively shows we've done. Derby fever (or something) must have gotten a hold of the guys. Listen for Spanky's musical selections in the background. Dean Martin, he ain't....

LINK:  HANDICAPPING HEROES 4/8/17




paulie
xxxxx

What did Saturday Teach Us?

Yes, we are sneaking up on the Kentucky Derby. The First Saturday in May is now a little over a month away. Two key preps for the Derby were run on Saturday. How did it affect the future race.?


Let's look at the Louisiana Derby first. GIRVIN went in as the prohibitive favorite and didn't disappoint the betting crowd. Unhurried early...he rallied from mid-pack and overcame PATCH in the stretch...going on to win by 1 1/4th lengths. The win gives rider Brian Hernandez, Jr a lot to think about. BJ is also the rider on McCRACKEN...who is the tepid favorite right now at 5-1 in the future pool. Hernandez, Jr will team up with McCracken this Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Who knows...if BJ decides to go with "the Mac", maybe Girvin trainer Joe Sharp could coax his wife...former jocker Rosie Napravnik...to come out of retirement and take the mount. She works the horse in morning workouts. 

WATCH THE RACE AT THIS LINK  LOUISIANA DERBY

In the Florida Derby, Todd Pletcher scratched BATTALION RUNNER for another day and ALWAYS DREAMING was his runner. It was a wise move. The horse tracked Three Rules early, went to the lead and never looked back...winning the 1-1/8 miles in a very impressive 1:47.47. Johnny Velasquez just sprinted away from the field at the 1/8 pole and took Always Dreaming to the wire with a very convincing win. Even money favorite GUNNEVERA broke slowly, trailed for at least half the race but closed strong...even though it was way too late...to grab third. 

WATCH THE RACE AT THIS LINK  FLORIDA DERBY

* PLETCHER LOADED *

Todd Pletcher, simply put, has a lot of marbles in this game. Always Dreaming, One Liner -- winner of the Rebel --, Patch, Battalion Runner, Tapwrit -- winner of the Tampa Bay Derby -- and Malagacy.  This six pack could break off and run their own Derby division. Our buddy Archie Karel's adage "Todd Pletcher on Saturday" is spot-on accurate as we get closer to the first Saturday in May. 

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*  PAULIE'S "Way too early" TOP FIVE * 

The way I see it right now...here's my top five

1) Always Dreaming 

His Florida Derby romp sold me. He could make a mockery of the rest down that long Churchill stretch. He's got the right guy in the saddle, too, with John Velasquez.

2) Girvin

I liked the way he seperated himself in the the stretch at the Fairgrounds and caught and passed the leader. I'll wait for and see who will be piloting him before mocing him out of second.

3) Gunnevera

Made up considerable ground to get the show money in Florida. Churchill has a long stretch. I just need to have some confidence that he won't be as far back in the Run for the Roses. 

4) McCracken

The first horse that drew my "winner possibility" interest. Loved his 2 yr. old campaign. Once again, he has a prep race coming up and how he does in that will be the key on whether I move him up or down in my rankings. 

5) Classic Empire

A crazy good work this morning at Ocala and he is the Breeder's Futurity and Breeders Cup winner. Regular rider Julian Leparoux may have a tough decision to make if the runner performs well in the Arkansas Derby on April 15th. 

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*  SCOTT HARRIS' TOP FIVE AS OF NOW *

1) GIRVIN

Very impressive in both the risen Star and Louisiana Derby

2) ALWAYS DREAMING

Todd Pletcher trainee made it look like a walk in the park in the Florida Derby and the colt and his connections will bring their talents all the way from South Beach to the Bluegrass. 

3) J BOYS ECHO

Dale Romans trained runner looks to bring redemption to the Albaugh family. J Boys Echo has taken a path through the Big Apple but plans to throw a welcome home party under the Twin Spires on Derby Day. 

4) McCRACKEN

This three year old has a victory over the Churchill Downs surface, so there is no question he likes the track.. He does leave a couple of questions to be answered. Has he recovered from his minor ankle sprain? Can he even make the Derby field? He needs a top three finish in the Blue Grass Stakes this weekend at Keeneland. 

5) STATE OF HONOR

Ran a good second in the Florida Derby behind Always Dreaming. He's trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux. He gave Leparoux some trouble being rank through the first turn and halfway down the backstretch in the Florida Derby. If he can settle into a stalking trip in the Kentucky Derby, he could earn all the honors on the first Saturday in May. 

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*   ARCHIE KAREL'S TOP FIVE  *


1) MCCRACKEN

Needs to come in first or second in his next race to qualify but he owns Churchill and has yet to be his best.

2) ALWAYS DREAMING

A monster race last out but on a speed biased track but he is rounding into form.

3) GIRVIN

This horse is killing it, however, what have the Fairgrounds preps added to the Derby value in the past five years? 

4) TAPWRIT

Only beaten by McCracken in the Sam Davis. HE ran great in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

5) CLASSIC EMPIRE

Needs a top two finish in the Bluegrass to get in but for now will leave him in the mix.


Good racing ahead and the potential for a star-studded Derby. 

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-paulie