Saturday, June 8, 2019
Paulie Plays for Belmont Day and recap !!!
This Saturday Belmont race day card is imposing, impressive and intriguing in terms of handicapping. I've chosen to concentrate on Races 7-11 for my picks today. All high quality stakes races here, all Grade I and some tough decisions.
To play a multi-race Pick 5 (or even Pick 3) looks like it could be quite costly, so I'm going this route. I've identified my to five horses in each race. I'll try a $1 exacta box in each race with these and a .50 cent trifecta box. We're looking at an outlay, then, of $50 per race and a sum total of $250 wagered.
RACE 7 -- ACORN -- 1 MILE
7 - GUARANA
1 - SERENGETI EMPRESS
3 - COOKIE DOUGH
8 - QUEEN OF BEAS
9 - CECE
RACE 8 -- WOODY STEPHENS -- 7 FURLONGS
9 - MIND CONTROL
1 - HONEST MISCHIEF
3 - BORRACHO
4 - COMPLEXITY
8 - HOG CREEK HUSTLE
RACE 9 -- METROPOLITAN -- 1 MILE
3 - MITOLE
1 - COAL FRONT
2 - MCKINZIE
9 - PRINCE LUCKY
4 - THUNDER SHOW
RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN -- 1-1/4TH MILE (TURF)
8 - BRICKS AND MORTAR
4 - QURBAAN
7 - OLYMPICO
10 - CHANNEL MARKER
9 - EPICAL
RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES -- 1-1/2 MILE
10 - TACITUS (I think he'll like the extra distance)
9 - WAR OF WILL ( All reports are he's looking good and ready to go)
3 - MASTER FENCER ( Made up a lot of ground in Ky. Derby in stretch)
7- SIR WINSTON ( Was closing in the Peter Pan)
4 - TAX ( Likes a fast track, adds Irad Ortiz)
I gave you 25 horses to consider over the five race sequence on Belmont Day at Belmont. Minus a scratch...24 went to the gate.
There were 15 "money" or win, place and show spots up for grabs. How'd I do?
I provided five winners! Some nice $2 win prices included in there, with Hog Creek Hustle ($39.80) Sir Winston ($22.40) and Mitole ($9.00)
I also gave out three horses who ran second. Three selections came in third. That a 73% success race in filling the money sports (11-15) and 46% rate on all my selections making money (11-24).
The $1 Pick 4 that ended in Race 11 paid $4,236.00. It would have cost you $500.
Sadly, the reality here is that I wasn't willing to toss down $500.
It should be noted that there were also Three Pick 3 chances in the sequence. Starting with race seven, they would have cost you $125.00, $100.00 and $100.00 to play on the $1 wager. Those paid $341.00, $199.50 and $147.50. A total investment of $325 would have returned you $688. A profit of $363.
Last but not least, a NYRA Pick 5 was offered for races 7-11. A $1 wager on it, using my picks, would have been expensive at $3,000. It returned $20,405.50, though, for a profit over over $17,000.
Maybe the old adage "it takes money to make money" was justified yesterday.
I got a nice e-mail this morning (Sunday) from a reader who decided to take my picks and play them "her" way. She put a $2 WPS bet on each of the five horses over the five race sequence. How did she do? She stuck $50 in her on-line account and sat back and enjoyed the racing while her husband was off to Patterson Stadium and then the track for baseball and racing.
In race seven, she wagered $30 but got back just $21, so she was -$9 going into race eight.
Her $30 investment returned $71.80 in the eighth race for a profit of $41.80 on the race and $32.80 for the day.
Race nine's $30 wager brought back $26.60, for a loss of $3.40 on the race but still an overall profit of $29.40.
In the tenth race, one of my picks was scratched, so the total investment was just $24. That investment paid just $8.40, though...so she lost $15.60 on the race and her profit for the day was down to $13.80.
In the Belmont Stakes, the 11th race, the $30 investment brought back $44.40. A return profit of $14.40 in the race and an overall profit of $28.20 on the day.
We like it when people make money...