She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Sunday, November 3, 2019

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RECAP


It was a good day playing the Breeders Cup Saturday card for me yesterday at Santa Anita. Out of the nine races, I had seven winners, seven seconds and three thirds. That's a 47% "in the money" percentage and that's not bad. 

I went after the races two different ways. First off, the usual $2 across the board on four runners per pace. That turned out to be $216 spent and $211 collected, so that was a bit of just exchanging money. 

The real success was in the Pick 4's. I played three of of the 50 cent variety...each one costing $128.

 The first one, from races 4 through 7 was an "almost". I hit three out of the four races but race five was my downfall -- no winner there. That was a $128 loss.

Next, I went after races 6-9. That was the bonanza ! The $128 wagered turned into a $1156 payout, 

I spent that same $128 for a late Pick 4 covering races 9 through 12. Not so good there, with just three out of four races putting me in the winners circle. Another $128 loss. The total Pick 4 profit, however, was great, $772 to the good. 

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I also got some great news Saturday morning. I had entered a "syndicate" late Pick 4 for Friday with five other people. We each tossed in $100. I gave some suggestions but didn't know the final horses that were bet. 

It was pretty much "drop off the money and make wise choices, fellas" kind of situation. Didn't even go into the track (because I've been "banned" by Churchill from going to "certain places"... long story there I'd prefer not to go into). Actually met a syndicate member in the lot and handed the $100 to him. We were both wearing grey raincoats and...just kidding !! 

(Note to Churchill -- I don't miss you. On-line works just fine for me.)  I know you're monitoring this website and my Facebook posts, also. Knock yourself out... 

That $600 turned into $18171 !!  After a tip to the teller, each syndicate member got back $3000 for their $100 invested !

I got the call Friday night about the win, but it went to voice mail and I didn't realize it or listen to the message until early Saturday. I figured we were beaten when a 45-1 shot won the final race in the sequence. Turns out, the group included the horse ! 

So, naturally...I stayed with the group for the late pick 4 on Saturday. Somehow, in Race 10, we failed to include 8-1 Blue Prize with Joe Bravo on board, so we got beaten there. I'm just as much to blame as anyone in the syndicate, I didn't suggest the runner. None of us did. We ran second, third, fourth, fifth and last in the tenth race. 

Toss in a 45-1 one day and leave out a 8-1 the next day. Yep, that's horse racing. . 


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We'll look at Churchill next Saturday. From afar, of course. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, November 2, 2019

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY RECAP AND SATURDAY PICKS

FRIDAY FLOP

It was not a great day for me on the Friday Breeders Cup Day selections. I gave you four horses each in the five races and managed to come up with only one winner, two seconds and two shows. That's just a 25% "in the money" average and will get you nothing but a trip to the ATM machine. 

Two-year-olds. So unpredictable. At Santa Anita or anywhere. Out of the $120 invested on $2 win. place and show ventures on these 20 horses, they paid a total of $92.20. If it hadn't been for BILLY BATTS second place showing in the Juvenile Turf -- ($33.40 and $18.00) it would have been much worse. I didn't touch the board in races 8 and 9 at all. 

Turn the page and move on...

Nine huge races for Saturday. Let's get at them. 

SATURDAY PICKS


RACE 4 -- FILLY & MARE SPRINT -- 7 FURLONGS --  $1 MILLION

1 -- COVFEFE
4 -- COME DANCING
6 -- BELLAFINA 
9 -- SPICED PERFECTION


RACE 5 -- TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- $ 1 MILLION

1 -- TOTALLY BOSS
2 -- PURE SENSATION
6 -- STORMY LIBERAL
7 -- LEINSTER


RACE 6 -- DIRT MILE -- 1 MILE -- $1 MILLION

2 -- IMPROBABLE
3 -- SPUN TO RUN
4 -- MR MONEY
5 -- OMAHA BEACH


RACE 7 -- FILLY & MARE TURF -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

1 -- INDESSA
2 -- SISTER CHARLIE
7 -- VASILIKA
12 -- FANNY LOGAN


RACE 8 -- SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS -- $2 MILLION

1 -- CATALINA CRUISER
4 -- MITOLE
6 -- SHANCELOT
3 -- FIRENZE FIRE


RACE 9 -- TURF MILE -- 1 MILE -- $2 MILLION

2 -- LUCULLAN
6 -- GOT STORMY
9 -- CIRCUS MAXIMUS
11 -- UNI


RACE 10 -- DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

4 -- MIDNIGHT BISOU
5 -- DUNBAR ROAD
7 -- SECRET SPICE
9 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS


RACE 11 -- TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE -- $4 MILLION 

2 -- ACCLIMATE
9 -- BRICKS AND MORTAR
10 -- OLD PERSIAN 
11 -- ARKLOW


RACE 12 -- CLASSIC -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $6 MILLION 

6 -- ELATE
8 -- MCKINZIE
10 -- VINO ROSSO
11 -- CODE OF HONOR


Good luck today and bet 'em anyway you want ! 

paulie
xxxxx










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Friday, November 1, 2019

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY PICKS


It's "babies day" at Santa Anita for Friday Breeders Cup racing. From races 5-9, we get three turf races and two dirt. All two-year olds. Key scratches litter this card and there may be more to come but we'll give you what we got as of Friday morning and check back with us later in the day to see if there are some changes we need to make.


RACE 5 -- JUVENILE TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- GRADE II -- $1 MILLION

7 -- KIMARI
5 -- ENCODER
1 -- CHIMNEY ROCK 
3 -- ANOTHER MIRACLE


RACE 6 -- JUVENILE TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

8 -- BILLY BATTS
4 -- DECORATED INVADER
6 -- GRACEFUL KITTEN
5 -- VITALOGY


RACE 7 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

6 -- BAST
7 -- WICKED WHISPERER
2 -- TWO SIXTY
4 -- BRITISH IDIOM


RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

9 -- ALBIGNA
10 -- FAIR MAIDEN
6 -- UNFORGETTABLE
1 -- LIVING IN THE PAST


RACE 9 -- JUVENILE -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

1 -- DENNIS' MOMENT
6 -- EIGHT RINGS
5 -- SCABBARD
3 -- SHOPLIFTED


GOOD LUCK ON THE FRIDAY CARD AND PLAY 'EM ANYWAY YOU WANT !


CHECK BACK SATURDAY.


paulie
xxxxx 

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Keeneland Results from 10-26-19


If there is anyone more glad than I to see the Keeneland meet end, point them out to me.

On a rainy Saturday, closing day for their Fall Meet, the Lexington track taught me yet another lesson.

I gave you (16) horses to consider for the Late Pick 4. Two got scratched, so 14 broke from the gate. Out of those, I managed two winners, two places and two shows. Six out out 14 is about 43% and nothing tp be proud of. Expect the unexpected and I should probably avoid handicapping this track in the Spring.

I was entirely off the board in the final - a MSW affair on the turf.

$2 across the board on all would have cost $84. I got back $46.

OH WELL, I move on and will have both Friday and Saturday Breeders Cup picks for you next week. Let's hope a change in venue brings a little better luck.


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, October 26, 2019

KEENELAND PICKS 10-26 -- LATE PICK 4


Back at it today for what looks to be a very wet day for Saturday racing at Keeneland. The card is solid with one stakes race (Fayette), two allowance races and a maiden special weight through Races 7-10. Let's hope we have a little luck in our picks. 

It's Closing Day at Keeneland and also the first half of the "Lexington Doubleheader" -- with UK Football hosting Missouri following racing. Gonna be a lot of wet and high spirited people in Lexington this Saturday...

Here we go...


RACE 7 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- ALLOWANCE 75K 

2 -- LAYLA MOOR
3 -- COCO CHANEL
4 -- DELTA KINGDOM
7 -- WITH DIGNITY


RACE 8 -- 7 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE 73K

2 -- BOTERO 
1 -- DIZZY SIGHT
7 -- OFF THE RECORD
8 -- HOLLY BLAME


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8th MILE -- FAYETTE -- 200K

3 -- TOM'S D'ETAT
8 -- BAL HARBOR
5 -- MOCITO ROJO
2 -- MR FREEZE 


RACE 10 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 71K

4 -- CARDIAC KID
11 -- SUGGESTED
8 -- SUMMER PALACE
3 -- BLANKET OF ROSES

Good luck on today's card! Play 'em however you like. 


paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, October 20, 2019

Keeneland Results -- 10/19/19

Sometimes, despite all the handicapping, analysis work and searching for trends...the horses fail to agree with your research. 

Such was the day yesterday at Keeneland. The "shots" were finding success in the late Pick 4 sequence and that's not a good thing when you're not playing them. 5-1, 18-1, 13-1 and 24-1. I won't belabor this any further. 

I gave you (16) horses to consider. Out of them, I managed three "seconds" and one "third"..  That's a pretty woeful 25% "in the money". 

That $96 I put down for $2 WPS on all 16 returned a paltry $30. 

There are going to be days like Saturday. As a handicapper, you shake it off, go back and look for any type of trend in the winners...but there was nothing. Speed won, closers won, different post positions won and four different trainers/jockey combinations won. 

A day at the races.. Keeneland being Keeneland.  Move on. 


paulie
xxxxx . 











Saturday, October 19, 2019

KEENELAND PICKS 10/19/19 -- LATE PICK 4


After a week off FROM HANDICAPPING last week to watch a little pigskin on the road, i'm back and ready to tackle a very difficult late Pick 4 at Keeneland today.


RACE 7 -- MAIDEN 71K -- 6 FURLONGS


1 -- HIGH HOLY
7 -- GOLD STREET
10 -- MR. MONOMOY
3 -- HANSENS MISCHIEF


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 77 K -- 1-1/16 MILES  (TURF)


11 - PERU
12 - KALLIA
8 -- BOXWOOD
7 -- PHANTOM OPENING


RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN (G II) 250K -- 7 FURLONGS


6 -- RESTLESS RIDER
1 -- ROYAL CHARLOTTE
3 -- INDIAN PRIDE
11 -- IRISH MISCHIEF


RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE 73K -- 5 1/2 FURLONGS  (TURF)


10 -- UNCAPPED
5 -- SAYYAAF
4 -- FOOCH
6 -- JOYFUL HEART


Good luck on today's card and bet 'em anyway you want !!


paulie
xxxxx