PAULIE PICKS -- A top five Derby Contender list to consider

SOME DERBY THOUGHTS


In a race where favorites have won each year since the Bush presidential administration, the logical picks would be to go with the favorite. That wasn't hard at all last year with Justify, although some of us out here believed Audible might get the nod. 

That was yesterday (or last year), though, and yesterday's gone. (to paraphrase an old Herman's Hermits ditty). 

I'm currently looking at the five horses below as having the best chance to dance in the winner's circle at Churchill on Saturday, May 4th. One of them will most likely be the favorite. 

GAME WINNER Thinking maybe he goes off around 6-1. He was the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion as a two-year old. Since then, he's 0-2 in 2019. He's been trying, he's been close and you have to think that if he gets a good trip on the first Saturday in May, he might just triumph down that long Churchill stretch. He likes running at Churchill, remember. 

ROADSTER This guy could be your Derby favorite and I'll guess around 4-1. He beat Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby. He has throat surgery to clear up a breathing problem when he was two. He's trained by Bob Baffert (who has an army of them) and a big question is who will ride...Mike Smith or someone else?

OMAHA BEACH. He may not be the Derby betting odds favorite (I'm going to guess around 10-1) but he has big momentum after winning the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel. This one will run in any type of conditions and will shine. OMAHA BEACH IS MY PICK TO CAPTURE THE ROSES.  Mike Smith has to decide whether he'll ride or not. If not, you can be assured trainer Richard Mandela will enlist someone else very capable. 

IMPROBABLE. I expect he'll be a 10-1 or so choice on Derby Day.  He was fractious at the gate in Arkansas. He's lost two in a row now, but ran well in each. He picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr in the saddle, since brother Jose is going with Tacitus. He loved Churchill as a two-year old and that could be a huge factor. The question is, how will he respond when he's eye-to-eye with one or more of them in the stretch? 

TACITUS. Bettors will probably send him off around 8-1 or so.  He's gone a different route than most of the contenders, getting wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and in the Wood at Aqueduct. We've mentioned Jose Ortiz staying on board for trainer Billy Mott. I wonder how he'll hold up against the other four listed here, though.  He's never run at Churchill, either.


I'll be back in a few days with some Oaks ideas. Until then, good racing luck and wager responsibly. After all, you're betting against me and the guy in the corner -- not the track. 


Paulie

PAULIE PICKS


A new start. 

Here, you will find commentary and selections from me on horse racing in Kentucky and beyond. 

We'll keep you up on the Derby and Oaks trail, the Triple Crown and other big thoroughbred racing days throughout the year. 

Stay tuned. I'll post my top five Derby and Oaks picks in a couple of days. 

Paulie
xxxxx

It's been fun, but we are done

Thank you for checking out Handicapping Heroes.

We are no longer active. We have also stopped our radio show and our weekly articles. I'll be introducing a new site here eventually that will reflect my own picks, thoughts and selections. Radio? Maybe down the road. 

We'll see you at the track.



Paulie, Archie, Hollywood and in memory of our co-founder the late Scott Harris. 

PLEASE HELP SCOTT'S FAMILY

Our co-founder and good friend, the late Scott Harris, left a rich and lasting legacy for us.

His Family is undergoing a very tough stretch right now. His lovely wife Jamie has a broken hip and cannot work right now.

We ask, here at Handicapping Heroes. that you consider helping them in their time of need. Please go to the link below to support in any way to can.


                      ********  CLICK THE LINK   HELP SCOTTY'S SURVIVORS  ********

HANDICAPPING HEROES -- Merry Christmas

From Arch, Hollywood and Paulie:

MERRY CHRISTMAS !!

Elvis says it best in the link below.


LINK:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJcJbVBwREc

Scotty loved Elvis as well, so think of him
while Elvis testifies:

We'll see you in the spring with 2019 Handicapping Heroes !!

paulie
xxxxx



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HANDICAPPING HEROES -- RESULTS FROM THE LATE PICK 4 -- CHURCHILL DOWNS 11/24/18

 The Handicappers fired away at the Saturday "Stars Of Tomorrow" card at Churchill and had a few success. No one saw the 10th race major upset coming...where Forloveofcountry scored at huge odds, maybe you could pick this horse because of hot riding Tyler Gaffalione but he certainly wasn't in any of our top four picks. 

The results: 

ARCHIE picked 16 horses for the four race sequence and had two winners, two places and a show. 31% "in the money". He also had an exacta in the 12th race along with the other Handicappers. HE FINISHES WITH 13 POINTS. 

PAULIE also sent 16 choices to the dirt. He had two winners, three seconds and a third. A 38% "in the money" percentage. With the exacta, PAULIE SCORES 15 POINTS 

HOLLYWOOD selected 16 horses for the sloppy/muddy conditions. He ended with three winners, two seconds and a show. Good for a 38% "in the money" rate. HOLLYWOOD TAKES OUR FINAL 2018 HANDICAPPING CHALLENGE WITH 16 POINTS. 

FINAL CUMULATIVE STANDINGS

PAULIE             303
ARCHIE            285
HOLLYWOOD    256

(replay of Saturday's show below)

HANDICAPPING HEROES 11/24/18 

The Handicappers hope you've enjoyed our 2018 picks and made a bit of money, We will be back in 2019 around the start of March...to guide you through the ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY and Keeneland, Churchill and other great racing! 


Paulie, Archie and Nahshon "Hollywood" thank you for reading and listening. We miss you, Scotty, but are carrying on in your tradition and we'll see everyone in March! 



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HANDICAPPING HEROES -- SELECTIONS FOR LATE PICK 4 -- CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 11/24/18

This is our final Handicapping Heroes post until the spring of 2019, when we'll resume giving you analysis and picks on the Derby trail, most likely starting off with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream on March 2nd. 

We've had some peaks and valleys in 2018. What stands out the most is the loss of co-founder and "heart and soul" of the site and show -- Scotty Harris. It was Scott who started things off with me when we were doing podcasts on his phone for racing and putting them on Facebook and YouTube. 

We miss Scott every day. Hollywood came in to be our new "third" with me and Arch and has done admirably. We appreciate him joining us. 

To the picks: 


Race 9 -- GOLDENROD STAKES (G II) -- $200,000 -- 1-1/16TH MILES


PAULIE

5 - RESTLESS RIDER
8 - BREAK CURFEW
4 - CHAMPAGNE ANYONE
3 - REFLECT

ARCHIE

5 - RESTLESS RIDER
8 - BREAK CURFEW
7 - PRINCESS CAUSEWAY
3 - REFLECT

HOLLYWOOD

1 - GOLD CREDIT
6 - LIORA
8 - BREAK CURFEW
3 - REFLECT

Race 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $75,000 -- 1 MILE 


PAULIE

9 - KING FORD
12 - CLASSIC CZAR
4 - SYNTHESIS
1 - SO ALIVE

ARCHIE

1 - SO ALIVE
5 - BORRACHO
9 - KING FORD
2 - TIEGAN


HOLLYWOOD

1 - SO ALIVE
4 - SYNTHESIS
11 - THOUSAND PERCENT
12 - CLASSIC CZAR
Race 11 -- KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- $200,000 -- 1-1/16TH MILES


PAULIE

13 - KNICKS GO
1 - SIGNALMAN
4 - DUNPH
9 - CURRENT

ARCHIE 

13 - KNICKS GO
1 - SIGNALMAN
12 - KING FOR A DAY
4 - DUNPH


HOLLYWOOD

13 - KNICKS GO
7 - LIMONITE
1 - SIGNALMAN
14 - TOPPER T


Race 12 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $76,000 -- 1-1/16TH MILES


PAULIE

6 - LOCALLY OWNED
10 - WAR OF WILL
9 - CURLIN GREY
5 - A.K. SAFARI

ARCHIE

6 - LOCALLY OWNED
10 - WAR OF WILL
2 - DERBY DATE
5 - A.K. SAFARI

HOLLYWOOD

10- WAR OF WILL
15 - PROUD NATION (AN ALSO ELIGIBLE)
6 - LOCALLY OWNED
5 - A.K.SAFARI
4 - GENTLE WARRIOR (4TH PICK IF PROUD NATION DOESN'T GO) 


It's been a fun time with all of you. For now, we round the final turn and head for the wire. We'll have our final recaps here tomorrow. Be sure to listen today at noon for the HANDICAPPING HEROES RADIO SHOW on WCHQ 100.9 FM locally, on the WCHQ app or listen live at the station website (link below) 

www.wchqfm.com




Paulie
xxxxx




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