She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Saturday results from Churchill


An interesting day two for the Churchill meet. 

In the late Pick 4, only one favorite got his picture taken, and what a promising one in Dennis' Moment, in the Iroquois Stakes, He toyed with the rest of the field. Watch this one, readers. 


I had 15 of my 16 picks break from the gate...British Idiom, was scratched in the Pocahontas. Out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 53% in the money percentage. 

If you are a "numbers" player...the #2 post position produced three winners on the 11 race card. #4 had two winners and the post positions #1, #6, #7, #8, #10 and #11 one winner each.

A Pick 4 wager that fell apart in the ninth race with Portrait unable to close in the Pocahontas and  knock me out of the wager. Bye, bye $96 investment.  

A $2 across the board wager on all 15 of my runners cost $90. It returned $105.80, so a small profit there. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Saturday 9-14-19 Churchil Late Pick 4



Huge opening weekend Saturday card today at Churchill. We'll try our skills on the late Pick 4 (Races 8-11). Three graded stakes and a very challenging maiden special weight rounds it out: 


RACE 8 -- LOCUST GROVE -- Grade III


3 - My Lady Curlin
5 - Escape Clause
7 - Go Google Yourself
2 - Moonlit Garden


RACE 9 -- POCAHONTAS -- Grade II


7 - British Idiom
6 - Morning Gold
3 - Portrait
8 - Lotta Ott


RACE 10 -- IROQUOIS -- GRADE III


4 - Rowdy Yates
8 - Dennis' Mom
3 - Scabbard
9 - Lebda


RACE 11 -- Maiden Special Weight -- $95,000


10 - Celtic Mischief
3 - Sprawl
9 - Hillbilly Deluxe
2 - Maxfield



Good luck today and remember our motto  "It takes money to make money." 


paulie
xxxxx 



Sunday, September 8, 2019

Success at KY Downs on Saturday


I ventured into the parimutuel pool yesterday at Kentucky Downs and came out refreshed and had the correct sequence of numbers in the Pick 4 to triple my investment. 

My wager of $144 returned $431.95. 

I also put a 2 across the board wager on all of my sixteen picks. The outlay of $96 brought back $87.20...so that didn't do quite as well.

Let's see how the picks did. I had four winners, two seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% in the money percentage.

The brief meet at Kentucky Downs is a handicapper's dream,,,and a bit of a nightmare. You have the best jockeys and trainers from across the nation (and Europe) coming in.

To walk out of there with a profit is a "pat on the back" achievement. I'LL REFER back to my two adages. 1) You need to be unafraid to put out the money to make money and 2) you can pick the winners but you can't pick what you'll get paid. 

Kentucky Downs ends their meet Thursday. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, September 7, 2019

SATURDAY KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-7-19


A fine day of racing awaits at Kentucky Downs this Saturday waits! 

I'm concentrating on the Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10), where three Grade III turf races are on the board. Some excellent runners in this sequence and it was hard to narrow it down to jus four picks per race. 

Here we go: 

RACE 7 -- RUNHAPPY TURF SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- WET YOUR WHISTLE
3 -- IMPRIMIS
8 -- LEINSTAR
10 -- TOTALLY BOSS


RACE 8 -- THREE CHIMNEYS -- 1 MILE

3 -- KALLIO
4 -- VIVA VEGAS
7 -- MITCHELL ROAD
9 -- MS BAD BEHAVIOR


RACE 9 -- SPENDTHRIFT FARMS -- 6 1/2 FURLONGS

3 -- OLEKSANDRA
5 -- COEXISTANCE
7 -- MORTICIA
9 -- TINY TINA


RACE 10 -- CALUMET FARMS -- 1-1/2 MILE

2 -- MY BOY JACK
7 -- PILLAR MOUNTAIN
9 -- ZULU ALPHA
10 -- ARKLOW

Horses are listed in post position number, not preference. 

Best of luck to you today, play 'em anyway you like and let's make some money, honey !!


--paulie--

Sunday, September 1, 2019

KENTUCKY DOWNS OPENING DAY RESULTS


Sometimes the opening day of a meet offers some surprises. On Kentucky Downs opening day, we look at Races 7-10 and there were NO favorites who hit the wire first in any of these four. I did have some success in giving you three out of the four winners in the sequence.

Here's how the day went: 

I gave you 16 horses over the four race sequence, two got scratched -- so I had 14 runners leave the gate. Out of those, I had three winners, but nothing in the place or show spots. That's not a real great "in the money" percentage (21%). 

Race 7 paid me nicely with a $12 return on the $2 wager. Race 8 was even better, with a $22.80 win price. In Race 10, another $12 payoff on the win. 

Figuring a $2 win on all 14 runners ($28). the payback was $54.80, so that was profitable.

$2 across the board on all 14 ($84) would have returned $90.60, so I squeaked by with a small profit there. 

Playing the #7 horse in all four races would have been profitable the #7 won the seventh and ninth races and finished second the the tenth. 

It's called gambling and sometimes the best laid plans, study and handicapping doesn't always agree with the final results. The Pick 4 in the sequence paid $2066 on a ,50 cent wager.

Arguably the toughest race was the ninth (which I did not have the winner)...but playing my picks from yesterday and altering them by taking "ALL" in that race would have brought a Pick 4 cost of $384. ...so, once again, the adage of "it takes money to make money" would have returned roughly the same profit as a hitting a 2-1 shot. 

paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Kentucky Downs Opening Day

\September brings the brief but very exciting meet at Kentucky Downs. Turf racing, full fields and some potentially high returns on investments.

I'm going for the Late Pick 4. This sequence is Races 7-10. Four nice stakes races.  As always, bet 'em however you feel.


RACE 7

3 -- Stave
9 -- Limari
10 -- Smart Emma
7 -- Hanalel Moon


RACE 8

1 -- Snapper Sinclair
4 -- Hembree
6 -- Siem Rep
9 -- Mr Cub

RACE 9 

4 -- Lil Miss Hot
6 -- Weekend Fun 
10 -- Sunset Promise
12 -- Fly So Pretty


RACE 10

1 -- Memorable
4 -- Night Train
9 -- Our Country
12 -- Peace Achieved


Good luck and here's hoping your tickets go to the window and not the floor !!!

paulie
xxxxx








Sunday, August 25, 2019

SARATOGA TRAVERS DAY RESULTS ON PICKS


Not a great start at all in my early handicapping on Saratoga Travers Day. 

Let's face it, I was out of the Pick 5 after the first leg of the sequence. It got better, though

I gave you Memories of Peter in the 1st race as a long-shot special. He ran well -- just off the lead -- for the entire race, but came in fourth after a three-way photo for place. 

Place and show runners in Race 7, effectively killing the Pick 5, 

The "whenever I don't bet John Velasquez, he wins" curse continued in the eighth race with a second place finish,

Then, it picked up a bit. Both runners I selected in race 9 ( Midnight Bisou and Elate) ran first and second.   Race 10 we continued to improve with the exacta, trifecta and superfecta when three of my four picks finished in the money and my fourth pick ran fourth. 

We also had the Travers nailed down (Race 11) with the exacta and trifecta when it finished Code of Honor, Tacitus and Mucho Gusto. 

So, I put out 17 horses in all yesterday that I thought might hit the board. 

I had three winners, five seconds and three thirds -- which is 65% of horses selected that hit the board. The trifectas paid OK ($59.50 and $36). The Pick Three for races 9-11 was so-so at $63.50. It got a little better for Races 10-12 ($97.75). 

To slightly alter my theory of it takes money to make money, let's say yesterday was more like "it takes money to lose money". I invested $242 and got back $161.25. Ouch...

If I'd stuck with just Pick Threes, the outlay would have been $138 (on the $1 variety) and a return of the $161.25 mentioned above. Sometimes, it's how you bet them.


paulie
xxxxx