CHURCHILL PICKS -- 7/2/22

 

A VERY NICE card at the ol' Twin Spires today for Stephan Foster Day and five stakes races (6-10), so we'll look at those to play today. 

RACE 6  -- TEPIN STAKES

4 -- WICKED HALO

8 -- PATNA  scratched

1 -- HEARTY CONSTITUTION

6 -- RUNAWAY WIFE   scratched

4 -- WICKED HALO

3 -- VERYLITTLECENTS

RACE 7   -- AMERICAN DERBY STAKES

9 -- RATTLE N ROLL

4 -- KITODAN

7 -- RED RUN

 10 -- WAR CAMPAIGN scratched

5 -- MCLAREN VALE

RACE 8  -- FLUER DE LIS STAKES

5 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

1 -- SUPER QUICK

4 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

RACE 9  -- KELLY'S LANDING STAKES

5 -- BANGO

4 -- ALOHA WEST

9 -- MILES AHEAD

3 -- KNEEDEEPINSNOW

RACE 10 -- STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES

6 -- MANDALOUN

5 -- PROXY

3 -- OLYMPIAD

2 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

Enjoy your 4th of July weekend, good luck today, PLAY EM ANYWAY YOU LIKE, and stay cool !!

paulie

 

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/18/22

Night racing tonight at the Twin Spires, which is probably a good thing, given the excessive heat we've had lately that cancelled Wednesday and Thursday Racing.  

Average fields tonight in the final four races --  but pretty evenly matched == so it could be a "big price" night. 

Here's what I got in Races 8-11. 

RACE 8

6 -- CONSPIRACY FACT 

3 -- WARRIOR JOHNY

1 -- CURLIN'S MALIBU

5 -- ACTIVE DUTY

RACE 9 

5 -- LORD DRAGON

9 -- PALACE COUP

1 -- CHANTRY FLATS

4 -- FROSTED GRACE

RACE 10 

9 -- TARABI

7 -- FAMED

2 -- ONTHEONESAND TWOS

4 -- CANCEL THIS

RACE 11 

10 -- LADY PELE

6 -- REPEALING

7 -- CLASSIC COYNE

6 -- ROYAL FLOWER

I'll keep an "eye out" for scratches and update as a can, 

JUST A NOTE FOR NEXT WEEK (6/25/22):

There will be no Paulie Picks next Saturday. My schedule has me busy all day. I hope to return to posting Paulie's Picks on July 2nd (7/2/22)

Good luck today,

paulie

PROFIT/LOSS -- CHURCHILL PICKS 6/12/22

 

I didn't do as well on the Belmont wagering and picks as I hoped. Out of the 16 horses I put out there to consider, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money" percentage. The big downfall was Race 10, where Tribhuvan (at 19-1) won . I had him as my "if scratches occur" pick -- which mens, basically, I thought he was the fifth best horse in the race. No one scratched in the race, though, so I didn't use him in any exotics or vertical wagers. I figured he's try to set the pace, but didn't think he could maintain it the entire race. Channel Maker, who I expected to go with him, stumbled out of the gate and didn't. 

Such is the life of wagering. 

I looked at my last 30 days of wagering, and found these results:

-- 45 wagers

-- 42.5 win % on wagers

--  $1516 wagered 

--  $3077 payoff

-- $1561 profit

Onward, and upward.

Here's what I like at Churchill today: 

--   Race 2:   I'll play #2 WICKED HALO to beat #5 PRETTY BIRDIE.  Straight out $50 win bet

-    Let's also try an early Pick 5 --- it's a .50 cent wager. 

RACE 1 -- 1.3.4.7

RACE 2 -- 2,5

RACE 3 -- 1,2,3,6

RACE 4 -- 5,6,7,9

RACE 5 -- 1.3.5.6

Cost  $128

Good luck!

paulie

BELMONT PICKS -- 6/11/22

 Let's take our Saturday handicapping and wagering to New York today -- to the site of the third jewel of the Triple Crown...Belmont Park and the Belmont Stakes. 

Nine stakes races on the card today up there, I took interest in the four leading to and including the Belmont Stakes. (races 8-11). All four are Grade I races, so, needless to say, these are very good runners at the track today. 

RACE 8 -- JAIPUR STAKES

5 -- ARREST ME RED

4 -- CASA CREED

8 -- SCUTTLEBUZZ

13 -- GREGORIAN CHANT

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 12 -- GEAR JOCKEY)

RACE 9 --   METROPOLITAN HANDICAP 

1 -- FLIGHTLINE

2 -- SPEAKER'S CORNER

4 -- HAPPY SAVER

3 -- ALOHA WEST

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- INFORMATIVE )

RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN STAKES

9 -- SANTIN

10 -- CHANNEL MAKER

2 -- GUFO

8 -- HIGHLAND CHIEF

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 7 -- TRIBHUVAN )

RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES

6 -- MO DONEGAL

1 -- WE THE PROPLE

4 -- RICH STRIKE

3 -- NEST

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- CREATIVE MINISTER )

OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 

RACE 3 -- (4) MATAREYA AND (5) EDHO ZULU THE TWO TO BEAT.

RACE 4 -- I'LL TAKE (3) SPEAK OF THE DEVIL OVER (2) REGAL GLORY

RACE 5 -- (5) FIRST CONSTITUTION ALWAYS RUNS WELL AT BELMONT

RACE 6 -- WHO BEATS (1) JACK CHRISTOPHER? 

RACE 7 -- TOUGH... BUT (1) LETRUSKA IS MY PICK. JOSE ORTIZ 7 FOR 8 ON HER

Good luck today!  

paulie

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 6/4/22

 A nice day of racing lined up at Churchill today with (6) stakes races on the 11-race card. 

We'll look at all (6) stakes races, that start on Race 5 (The Regret) and then roll through Races 7-11.  My availability to jump in and update scratches today will be limited....so...

Like last week, I'm listing my top four picks and then an alternative pick, in case there is a scratch. Weather today is rain-free, though, and mid-80's temperatures. Central Avenue will be busy today -- with NCA Regional baseball going on at Jim Patterson Stadium. The Louisville game (vs. Michigan) is at 4 p.m. 

RACE 5 -- REGRET STAKES

3 -- MCKULICK

2 -- BESIDE HERSELF

1 -- WALKATHON

6 -- CANDY RAID

(4 -- KNEESANDHIPS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 7 --  SHAWNEE STAKES 

5 -- PAULINE'S PEARL

3 -- AVA'S GRACE

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL  {scratched)

4  -- ARMY WIFE

(2 -- SHE'S ALL WOLFE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 8 -- ARLINGTON STAKES

5 -- FIELD PASS

1 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE

4 -- GET SMOKIN

6 -- GRAY'S FABLE

(2 -- FLORIFORM -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 9 -- ARISTIDES STAKES

5 -- BOB'S EDGE

6 -- TOP GUNNER

8 -- LONG RANGE TODDY

2 -- MILES AHEAD

( 4 -- NECKER ISLAND -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

RACE 10 -- BLAME STAKES

6 -- SCALDING

8 -- AMERICAN REVOLUTION

3 -- TITLE READY (scratched)

1 -- PROXY

5 -- DYNAMIC ONE -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 11 -- AUDUBON STAKES

8 -- SUMMER ANTHEM

2  -- GRAND SONATA

7 -- SMOKIN T

11 -- MAJOR GENERAL

( 6 -- RED RUN -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR) 

Bet 'em any way you like and GOOD LUCK today !!

paulie 

CHURCHILL PICKS -- 5/28/22

 A great weekend for racing at Churchill this Memorial Day Weekend. We'll look at the final four races out there today -- a nice stakes race, high level allowance and allowance optional claiming affairs and a maiden special weight close out the card. 

In case of scratches today, I've listed a "fifth horse" today in my picks, since I won't be around to come in and do any changes/updates. 

Best of luck today!

RACE 8 

4 -- WAR CAMPAIGN

10 -- PIONEERING SPIRIT

7 -- BRIGHT PROSPECTOR

3 -- RIDLEY'S MANOR

( 13 -- GUN RUNNER -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 9 

3 -- GUN IT 

5 -- DENNIS' MOMENT

2 -- AWESOME GERRY

6 -- EBBEN

( 1 -- ATOKA -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 10 

7 -- TEMPLE CITY TERROR

2 -- DISAPPEARING ACT

8 -- LUCK MONEY

1 -- STAND TALL

( 5 -- FEDERALIST PAPERS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

RACE 11

2 -- ARI OAKLEY

1 -- STATIC FIRE

8 -- ONTHEONESANDTWOS

6 -- BALI DREAMING

( 10 -- CODE FOR SUCCESS -- IF SCRATCHES OCCUR)

Play 'em anyway you like and have a winning day !

(A neat thing I heard the other day)..."It all begins with the effort. You have to put out the best effort you have...because your "rep", your past performances and your presence don't scare your opponent. They are there to take something away from you. A win. You must deny that. You must have the better effort. I hear losing coaches, players and others say that 'we weren't ready for them' or 'they out-played us in so-and-so quarter or stretch' and what it means is their effort was better than yours. They took it away from you. Me? I don't like to give away what I want. I am always going to give my best effort. I'm not out there for the popcorn, the fan recognition or because I had nothing else better to do. I want to win, so I must put out the better effort." 

paulie

paulie

 

 

PREAKNESS PICKS -- 5/21/22

Today we get the second leg of the triple crown -- The Preakness at Pimlico. 

With Rich Strike opting out, Epicenter deservedly gets the morning line favorite tag, but I do think he'll get a challenge from a few in here. The filly Secret Oath could challenge, Early Voting is getting a lot of backing and support and Creative Minister and Simplification wouldn't surprise too much, in my eyes, if they get the Black Eyed Susan garland. 

There is a nice Pick 4 that starts up there in Race 10 that ends with the Preakness and that's what I've handicapped for you today.

Good luck and I'll try to jump in if there are scratches or changes in my picks, 

RACE 10  JAMES W MURPHY STAKES -- 1 MILE (TURF)

10 -- JOE

5 -- READY TO PURRFORM

7 -- RIOT HOUSE  (scratched)

8 -- SHAKE EM LOOSE

2 -- LOCAL MOTIVE

RACE 11  SIR BARTON STAKES -- 1-1/16TH MILE (DIRT)

1 --ETHEREAL ROAD

5 -- B DAWG

8 -- UNIKEE

6 -- MR JEFFERSON

RACE 12 -- JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT -- FIVE FURLONGS (TURF)

2 -- CAROTARI

7 -- GRATEFUL BRED

9 -- HOLLIS

3 -- SEVEN SECRETS

RACE 13 -- THE PREAKNESS -- 1-3/16TH MILES

8 -- EPICENTER

4 -- SECRET OATH

5 -- EARLY VOTING

6 -- CREATIVE MINISTER

As I always say, bet 'em however you like.  I fooled around with a few bets yesterday and favorites were getting routinely slaughtered in the final four on the card. 

paulie