KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/16/21

 It was a "true to form" kind of day at Keenelland yesterday. I handicapped the final four races on the card and my top selection won two of the races -- my second selection won the other two. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider. Out of those, I had four winners, four seconds and one third. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage. I fill nine of the 12 "payable spots for a 75% success rate. 

Let's break it down: 

RACE 7 -- BIG CITY MOMMA (3-1) used a nice stretch move under Tyler Gaffalione to win for trainer Shug McGaughey in the maiden race. I had that one and second place finisher STREET MISERY. 

RACE 8 -- SHANTISARA (5/2) prevailed in the stretch in the QEII Stakes -- a nice ride from west coast import Flavien Prat for Chad Brown. I also gave you TECHNICAL ADVISOR, who ran a strong second. 

RACE 9 -- DUCALE (4/5) took them wire-to-wire -- holding off WINTER POOL and MALIBU STAR in the stretch. I gave you all three. Florent Geroux on board for the Brad Cox runner. 

RACE 10 -- SOCIAL CHATTER (7/2) came flying from far back to squeak out the win for Rafael Bejarano and Victoria Oliver. I had that one and GHOSTING KIM, who narrowly lost.

When you have four winners, and none of them are over 3-1 in the final odds, chances are the Pick 4 isn't going to be a huge one, and that was the case yesterday -- paying $85.95 on the .50 cent wager . It may have been tempered a bit by the inclusion of the #7 in Race 9 in the payout-- a late scratch. 

So, it was the scenario of hitting the late Pick 4 but losing money on the wager.  That'll happen sometimes -- when you play a ticket that includes the possibility of some "shots" coming in for you -- when ...and "they" don't...and favorites prevail. At least I didn't have to toss the ticket on the ground as a complete loser. 

We'll give it a "go" next Saturday.

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/16/21

 

It looks to be a beautiful. fall type day for racing at Keeneland today, no rain in the forecast and temperatures in the 60's. A good card, with two challenging allowance races, a maiden race that looks pretty tough and the Qoeen Elizabeth II, Grade I Cup Stakes. Two turf, two dirt. 

Let's get to it: 

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN -- 84K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- BIG CITY MOMMA

2 -- SOVEREIGN APPROVAL

5 -- STREET MISSION

3 -- SOUTH GEORGIA

RACE 8  -- QE II CUP -- 500K -- 1-18TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- EMPRESS JOSEPH

3 -- SHANTISARA

2 -- TECHNICAL ADVISOR

8 -- FLIPPANT

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 86K -- 1 MILE

1 -- MALIBU STAR

5 -- DUCATE

4 -- WINTER POOL

2 -- OTTOTHELEGEND

RACE 10 -- ALLOWNCE -- 88K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

1 -- SOCIAL CHATTER

4 -- CHILI PETIN

3 -- GHOSTING KIM

6 -- SIGNIFY

THE PLAY: 

Let's chase a late Pick 4 here (races 7-10) and take my first three picks in Race 7. I'll follow that up with my top four picks in Race 8 -- and include #10 CLOSING ROMANCE in the OE II -- this one has been a West Coaster -- has been in the money seven out of nine times and run in eight stakes races out there. In Race 9, I'll take my top four and might consider #9 Mr. Tip -- he goes from turf to dirt and has faced tougher in his career. I'll end with my top four picks in the Race 10 closer -- this one is wide open, honestly, and -- keep an eye open -- if #13 or #15 get "in" off the AE list -- they should be respected. Add them, if needed, and replace the 6 and/or the 4. 

1,2,5/2,3,4,8,10/1,2,4,5,9/1,3,4,6  =  Cost $150

Good luck today! 

paulie

KEENELAND RESULTS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stakes racing yesterday at Keeneland -- not the best results for my handicapping efforts though. 

I gave you 20 horses total in the five races (Race 6-10) and out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and four thirds. That 45% "in the money" is nothing to stop the presses over. Out of the 15 possible "payout" spots -- I had nine of them -- I won't boast about a 60% success rate. 

RACE 6 -- It went according to form and my handicapping. GOLDEN PAL (1/2) took the Woodford and got a great ride from John Velasquez. I also had EXTRAVAGENT KID for second and COUNTY FINAL, who got third. At least it was a good start to my handicapping.

RACE 7 -- Even money BELL'S THE ONE was the one in the TCA stakes. Popular Kentucky circuit rider Corey Lanerie had the ride I had him, as well as third place runner ESTILO TALENTOSO

RACE 8 -- BLOWOUT blew by the field to capture the First Lady Stakes at 5-1 with popular west coast jockey Flavian Prat riding for Chad Brown. I had that one, but couldn't come up with a place or show in the race. 

RACE 9 -- Here's where it "blew up" for me. I did not have 9-1 winner Rattle N Roll. Brian Hernandez Jr took this one on an outside path as the entered the start of the final tuen and just demolished the field for the Kenny McPeek horse. I had DOUBLE THUNDER who followed for second and CLASSIC CAUSEWAY who faded to third. Didn't see that one coming.

RACE 10 -- A longshot -- IN LOVE (12-1) moved well in the stretch to take the Turf Mile Stales for Alex Achard and Paula Lobo. I didn't have that one, just SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN for third. 

The Pick 4 paid $1689 on a .50 cent venture. I went a different way -- putting $2 to win on each of my 20 runners. I got back $19.80 on the $40 wager. I didn't get to see any of the races "live" -- I was watching Louisville lose a heartbreaking football game yesterday -- so I didn't know about my beat-down until Sunday morning. 

We'll give it a go next Saturday

paulie

KEENELAND PICKS -- 10/9/21

 Some great stAkes racing on the opening weekend at Keeneland for the fall, and today's card has five stakes -- three on the turf and a combination of sprints and distances. Let's get to it! 

RACE 6 -- WOODFORD STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 5-1.2 FURLONGS (TURF) 

2 -- GOLDEN PAL

4 -- FIRECROW

6 -- EXTRAVAGENT KID

7 -- COUNTY FINAL

RACE 7 -- TCA -- GII -- $250K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- ESTILO TALENTOSO

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

1 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

3 -- INTHEMIDSTOFBIZ

RACE 8 -- FIRST LADY STAKES -- GI -- $400K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

3 -- ALTHIQA

5 -- HENDY WOODS

9 -- BLOWOUT

7 -- DADDY IS A LEGEND

RACE 9 -- BREEDERS CUP FUTURITY -- GI -- $500K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

5 -- DON'T WAIT UP 

3 -- STELLAR TAP 

13 -- CLASSIC CAUSEWAY

1 -- DOUBLE THUNDER

RACE 10 -- TURF MILE STAKES -- GI -- $750K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

10 -- ORDER OF AUSTRIALIA

13 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

11 -- DIAMOND OOPS

7  -- PIXELATE 

THE PLAY

Race 6 starts a Pick 5, so let's go for it. Speed seemed to be holding up pretty well yesteday on opening day -- but it is way too early to say if that's going to be a track trend.  

We'll start with 2,4,6 in Race 6, go with 1,4,6 in Race 7 and then 3,9 in Race 8. Let's use 3.5.13 in Race 9 and then all four picks in Race 10 -- 7,10,11,13.  

Playing the .50 version of the Pick 5 gets us "in the game" for $108 and gives us good coverage. 

Keeping up on scratches today will be tough -- warning you in advance --  I've got another commitment this afternoon....but with the forecast dry, sunny and in the mid 80's -- I can't see too many bailing out today

Good luck!

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 10/2/21

A interesting, if a bit strange, final four races at Churchill yesterday.

I gave you 16 horses to consider, and had to jump back in to take care of a couple of scratches in the two stakes races of the four I handicapped. Out of the picks I had just two winners, three seconds and two thirds.  A 43% "in the money" isn't up to my usual standards. 58% success in hitting the "payable" spots isn't great either. 

KNICKS GO (2/5) played with the field in the Lukas Classic Stakes before going on to win. INDEPENDENCE HALL followed him home for second and I did have those two picks. It was a nice Breeders Cup tune up for Brad Cox's horse and Joel Rosario did enough to make sure he won and didn't get into any trouble

Race 9 was a disaster. I didn't get any of my four picks in the money. 6-1 SHE CAN"T SING, with Javier Castellano in saddle probably should have been one of my four picks for the racce, butI liked others better. Shows what I know, right? 

In the ACK ACK Stakes, PLAINSMAN (5-1) got it done for Brad Cox and Joel Rosario again. I did lke that one as well as the heavy favorite BEAU LIAM who ran second. 

In the nightcap it was bombs away with 20-1 HAPPY AMERICAN upsetting the rest. I had the second, third and fourth place finishers but could not come up with the Neal Pessin trained, James Graham ridden winner. (You know that James Graham -- he's a cracker) 

The Pick 4 payout (2-11-7-7) was good, not great paying $648.20 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't have it, and congrats if you did, 

The horses move to Keeneland next week. We'll try our luck there.

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 10/2/21

 A huge card at Churchill today with two stakes and a very competitive allowance race mixed in the final four race of the day . Let's jump into it! 

RACE 8 -- LUKAS CLASSIC -- GIII -- $400K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

2 -- KNICKS GO

3 -- TACITUS

5 --INDEPENDENCE HALL

6 -- SPRAWL 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $141K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- PORTAL CREEK 

8 - HIMIKO 

6 -- VELVET CRUSH

1 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

RACE 10 -- THE ACK ACK STAKES -- GII -- $300k -- ONE MILE

10 -- BEAU LIAM

7 -- PLAINSMAN

9 -- SOUTH BEND

6 -- ALOHA WEST SCRATCH

8 -- ATOKA

RACE 11 -- ALLOWANCE -- $127K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

4 -- LAUGHING BOY

10 -- RUNNIN RAY

9 -- CALIBRATE

13 -- FIRST  LINE SCRATCH

12 -- CHEFFY

I'll try to jump in later in the day with any scratches and changes in my picks, if they occur. 

THE PLAY

I'll chase a late Pick 4, going two deep in Race 8 (2,3), and then taking all four of my picks in Race 9 - 11. 

Cost: $64

2,3/1,6,8,9/6,7,9,10/4.9.10,13

Good luck today! 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 9/25/21

 So, it wasn't the best day for handicapping for me at Churchill Saturday. I gave out 16 horses that I thought might do well in the final four races, and had two winners, two seconds and a third. That 31% "in the money" number isn't very good at all. Filling five of the 12 "payable spots equates out to 42%, and that much lower than I usually hit. (Mama said there would be days like this). 

Race 8 -- CARRIBEAN CAPER (2/5) took a lot of money and Colby Hernandez got the job done for Al Stall. I also had SOMEONE SAID SO for second. My top pick Patty H was a disappointment. 

Race 9 -- KING FURY lived up to the 1/2 post time odds and secured a win for Brian Hernandez. Jr and Kenny McPeek in the Bourbon Trail. I also had DR.JACK for second. 

Race 10 -- In the Harrods Creek Stakes, I drew a goose egg. Everett's Song (13-1) was the longshot winner, with Pablo Morales along for the ride. 

Race 11. -- This was the "woulda, coulda,shouda" race. I debated long and hard about including Howling Time (5-1) in my top four picks but didn't. He took the final with Joe Talamo riding for Dale Romans.  My top pick, BACK TO NORMAL managed third. 

The Pick 4  (2-4-10-6) got you $139.80 on a .50 wager.  

We'll dust ourselves off, get up after the knockout pinch and get back on our feet for next week. 

paulie