She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Sunday, November 29, 2020

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/28/20

 An interesting day of racing at Churchill yesterday, no doubt. I handicapped the final four races on the card and "got the sweep" -- hitting all four of them with winners. In fact, I had the top three finishers in all four events (Races 9-12) in a sequence where we saw a 9/2, even money, 2-1 and 4-1 take the prizes. 

I gave you 24 horses to consider over the final four races, 12 finished in the money for a 50% IN THE MONEY percentage. I DID GO 12 FOR 12 in the payout slots. 

Race 9 featured 9/2 odds TRAVEL COLUMN overcoming a tough trip and blowing by odds-on favorite SIMPLY RAVISHING in the stretch for the win. The favorite did not hit the board, which set up a nice trifecta for me that paid $81.05 on the .50 cent, five horse tri box in the Golden Rod Stakes  

Race 10 was all about the favorite. MANDALOUN toyed with the field before destroying the rest in the stretch to win pretty easily. That trifecta wasn't a great pay, returning $38.80, but, it covered the $30 tri boxes I settled on as my wagering strategy yesterday. 

Race 11 gave us 2-1 KEEPMEINMIND getting to the winner's circle in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. This one was a "last to first" winner, trailing the field until the top of the stretch, and then swinging seven-wide and charging down the center of the track to catch and pass the leader and win by a length. The tri paid $35.70. If you were playin Pick 3's, sorry about your luck...you got back just $19 on a .50 cent wager. 

Race 12 belonged to RUNWAY MAGIC. He broke his maiden in front running style and held off the rest at 4-1 odds. A good ride from Julian Leparoux to hold off hard-charging OUTASITE and REPO ROCKS. A trifecta return of $41.25, the Pick 3 got you $23.30 and the Pick 4 was worth $169.50.

If you followed my picks yesterday, you experienced the rarity of hitting the Pick 4 and actually losing money. As we've said here beffore, though, I can pick winners, but I can't pick what they pay. At least they were winners.

Today concludes the Fall Churchill meet and there are mandatory payouts for all the multi-race options. Due to commitments at my other site (CARDINAL COUPLE) I won't be providing any picks for the clsoing card. 

WE'LL SEE YOU IN 2021. Stay safe and best of luck to you! 


PAULIE  

Saturday, November 28, 2020

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 11/28/20

 A great card for Saturday racing, highlighted by two stakes races in the final four. It's "two-year old" day today at Churchill, with the Golden Rod Stakes and Ky Jockey Club Stakes to be run in Races 9 &11.. 

The two-year olds can be quite unpredictable. If you're going to do the "multi race" wagers, be sure and protect yourself and give yourself enough coverage. To be honest with you, Race 9 looks like (at least on paper) Simply Ravishing's to lose. After that, it's throw a dart at a board, pretty much. Bot, I've put some time into it and got the best I can come up with here for you in the final four races of the day. 


RACE 9 -- GOLDEN ROD STAKES -- GII - $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

8 -- SIMPLY RAVISHING

5 -- TRAVEL COLUM

6 -- CLAIRIERE

3 -- COACH

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):

9 -- PRINCESS THEOREM

10 -- ALEXANDRIA


RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

4 -- PICO D' ORO

10 -- MANDALOUN

11 -- ULTIMATE

3 -- TWILIGHT BLUE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER): 

1 -- KING'S OVATION

6 -- FOUNDER


RACE 11 -- KY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- GII -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- SITTIN ON GO

4 -- KEEPMEINMIND

2 -- SWILL 

3 -- ARABIAN PRINCE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER): 

5 -- INSPECTOR FROST

7 -- KING FURY


RACE 12 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

10 -- RUNWAY MAGIC

11 -- GROUP HUG

6 -- LAUGHING BOY

7 -- OUTASITE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER):

4 -- REPO ROCKS

9 -- SABUDA

 

THE PLAY: 

I'll probably go with the trifecta boxes again today, they really paid off Friday. A couple of Pick 3's aren't out of the question as well. As for a Pick 4, I'll offer one here -- but haven't decided if I want to play it yet or not. (These last three races are VERY challenging) 

Pick 4 possibility:

Race 9 -- 5,6,8

Race 10 -- 1,3,4,6,10,11

Race 11 -- 1,2,3,4

Race 12 -- 4,6,7,9,10,11

COST: $216 on the .50 bet

If that's a bit pricey for you, you could try a "single" in Race 9 with SIMPLY RAVISHING, but I rarely "single" and -- based on what the Pick 4 paid yesterday -- with NO favorites winning in the final five races and a $7000+ payday in the sequence, the old adage "spend a little more to make a bunch" seems like it could be a wise one to follow. 

In any event, play 'em anyway you like. I'll probably go deep on things, I'm way ahead for the meet and the year and can do it.

This will be the final Paulie Picks edition until mid January, when Pegasus World Cup goes at Gulfstream and, soon after. important Derby Preps start to come together. See ya then! 


paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS 11/27/20

 I outlined five races for Friday's card at Churchill and had some successes with the picks. I looked at the final five on the Friday card (Races 7-11) and came up with four winners, four places and four shows. I offered 29 "horses to consider" after scratches, so the "in the money percentage was 41%. When you consider there were 15 "money spots"(win, place and show) to fill, and I filled 12 of them, that percentage is 73%

We hit two Pick Threes in the sequence and also three trifectas. Let's look at the results. 

Race 7 gave us the top three finishers out of my picks. Funnybet took the race at 4-1 odds and this one was my top pick. That trifecta returned $48.50 on the .50 cent box. 

Race 8 belonged to Villanelle. She went off at 4-1 odds. I also had the trifecta in this race and it paid $119.50 on the .50 cent box. 

Race 9 ended with Hog Creek Hustle holding off the rest in the stretch and it was my top pick in the race. "The Hog" went off at 3-1 odds. That also gave me the first Pick 3 I attempted and it paid $57.80 on the ,50 cent attempt. 

Race 10, the Clark Handicap delivered a bit of a price upset when Bodexpress crossed the line first at 11-1 odds. I loved the runner, though, it was my top pick and set up a nice trifectas that returned $196.50. The finish also gave me my second Pick 3 of the five race sequence that paid $318 on the ,50 attempt. 

Race 11 was the only surprise (for me) in the sequence. I was a just a couple of strides away from getting Shell Shock home first (at 12-1 odds), when Atlanta his nose in front to take the win, I didn't have this first time starter in my picks...but got a belated second and third in the race. I can't blame the jock on Shell Shock (Albin Jimenez) for the narrow loss, but I do have to wonder if a more experienced...well, never mind. My favorite in the race (My Mane Girl) never fired and there was a key scratch when (Silverbella) backed out of the affair. 

The Pick Four (2-4-8-3) paid $7889 on the .50 cent wager. I didn't try it, if you did, I hope you figured Atlanta in that final leg somehow. 

Saturday's card looks challenging, indeed.  I'll have a new post later this morning with my picks for it. 

Friday, November 27, 2020

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS 11-27-20

 The Clark Handicap is the feature for Friday Churchill racing and the Grade I event looks like a good one with plenty of talent on hand. There's also TWO great allowance races, a maiden affair and a optional claiming event in the final five races, so let's go get that money! 


RACE 7 -- ALLOWANCE -- 5OK -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

2 -- FUNNYBET

7 -- GRAYSONSMACHOGAL

4 -- MALIBU MARLEE

8 -- STRIPPING

(IF SCRACTHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER 9 -- TONAL VISION, 1 -- HASHTAG WINNER)


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE --  87K -- 1-1/16TH MILE 


7 -- LONGPANTS REQUIRED

6 -- TEMPERS RISING

1 - O SERAPHINA

2 -- VILLANELLE

( IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 5 -- QUIET DIGNITY, 9 -- MYLASTFIRSTKISS) 


RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1 MILE

4 -- HOG CREEK HUSTLE

8 -- LOOKING AT BIKINIS

2 -- SIGNALMAN

5 -- DABO 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER -- 9 -- HOME BASE, 1 -- THIRSTFORLIFE) 


RACE 10 -- CLARK HANDICAP -- GI -- 500K -- 1-1/8TH MILE

8 -- BODEXPRESS

12 -- BY MY STANDARDS

9 -- OWENDALE

3 -- CODE OF HONOR

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/OTHERS TO CONSIDER) -- 7 -- MR FREEZE, 5 -- AURELIUS MAXIMUS) 


RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 85K -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- MY MANE GIRL

7 -- SILVERBELLA

4 -- SPEIGHTLY SHIRL

9 -- FAVORITE SIN 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR/ OTHER TO CONSIDER) -- 5 -- SHELL SHOCK, 8 -- KISS THEORY)


THE PLAY: 

I had success with a couple of Pick 3's last Saturday, so I'll go back there again with a Race 7,8,9 try and a Race 9,10,11 wager.   There's a Pick 5 here, it could get pricey so buyer beware. The Pick 4 starts on Race 8, I'm passing on it but don't let my hesitance stop you. Trifectas look promising today also, I'll probably do some "boxing" on those. 

Good luck! 

paulie


Sunday, November 22, 2020

CHURCHILL RESULTS 11/21/20

A bit of a cloudy, drizzly day at the Twin Spires yesterday but some very good racing and I did pretty well. I gave you my picks for the final four races on the card (races 7-10) and ended up hitting the Pick 4 and both Pick 3's I tried. 

After scratches, I had 21 runners compete in the four races, out of those -- I had four winners, four places and two shows. That's a 48% "in the money percentage. I filled 10 of the 12 "payable" spots available -- for a  83% success rate there. 

The two Pic 3's I tried (Races 6-8 and 8-10) paid $235.60 and $20.55 on the .50 variety. That's $256.15 total and I invested $144.00 -- so I ended up with a $112 profit. On the Pick 4, .50 variety - the return was $311.95 and the investment was $144 -- so the profit was $167. 

The trifectas weren't quite as profitable. I did (4) tri boxes of five horses -- which cost $30 each on the .50 wager. I hit to of them -- paying $89.76 in Race 7 and $59 in Race 9....so a return of $148 on an investment of $120 and a $28 profit

It was my "if scratches occur -- others to consider" selections that bailed me out. In Race 7 RADIANTRHYTHM got the win at 10-1 odds and this one wasn't one of my top 4. Race 8 brought THREE TIPSY CHIX home first at 5/2 and this one was in my top four. FINITE was "all that" in Race 9 and was a popular pick (and my top pick) at 6/5 odds. In Race 10, the scratch of BLANKET OF ROSES made handicappers scramble and NEW EAGLE ended up a 2-1 price and won. I has this one on my "alternate" list. 

Sometimes you have to go deep. It may cost you a bit more, but, it'll usually provide a winning ticket. If it's maybe a "chalky" day -- like the final three races were -- with 5/2, 6/5 and 2-1 winners -- remember that a winning ticket is just that and that's why we play them.

It beats throwing a loser on the ground, tight? 

I hear horseplayers talk about not wanting to invest a bunch of money in a particular sequence or type of bet...but that is a "scared" philosophy and usually ends up in a losing ticket. Sometimes, you have to include the favorites with your long shot picks. 

Like anything else in financial realms, you have to spend a little money to make a little money. I wagered a total of $408 in my bets yesterday. I got back $717. I'll take a profit of $300+ any day at the track, and if I have to spend a little extra to get the reward, the ultimate success justifies the initial investment. If the profit exceeds the investment...guess what? YOU MADE MONEY!

As my late friend Gold Room Scotty used to say, "We can pick the winners, we just can't pick what we'll get paid." 

With Thanksgiving just around the corner, I'll have "day after Turkey Day" selections here Friday and then my usual Saturday selections. 

Since I won't see you until after Thanksgiving, I hope yours is a good one. I know the travelling aspects are risky now and your crowd may be smaller than most years in a lot of cases...but, remember, the sacrifices we make today will pay off down the road, so attribute it to planning for the future, watch a lot of sports over the Thursday-Sunday stretch and stay healthy.


paulie


Saturday, November 21, 2020

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS -- 11/21/20

 It looks to be a good day for racing this Saturday at Churchill -- the rain maybe coming in later, but, a wide variety of types of races. We have a optional claimer, maiden special weight, Grade III Chilukki Stakes and we end up with a lower level claimer. 

It's been decided that Churchill won't run on the turf for the remainder of the meet, the surface isn't responding well to this wacky fall weather, so to the dirt we go and stay. Let's look at the late Pick 4. 


RACE 7 --OPTIONAL CLAIMING 20K -- SIX FURLONGS

7 -- KIFFLE

5 -- TAKE CHARGE ERICA 

6 -- IT'S COLD IN DEHERE

8 -- JUST FLY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHER TO CONSIDER: 4-- RADIANTRHYTHM -- 9 -- PARKING TICKET)


RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECUAL WEIGHT -- 85K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 -- WILD COMBO

12 -- TROUBLE MAKING

10 -- FOOLERY

1 -- THREE TIPSY CHIX

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 13- EUPHONIC -- 6 -- MARION FRANCIS) 


RACE 9 -- CHILUKKI STAKES -- G III - 100K -- ONE MILE

2 -- FINITE 

3 -- GRAND CRU CLASSIC

6 -- RISKY MANDATE

9 -- SANENUS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 1 -- NEW ROO -- 4 -- WHOA NELLIE)


RACE 10 -- CLAIMING -- 10K -- 1-1/16TH MILE

1 -- BAHAMA CHANNEL

8 -- BLANKET OF ROSES

11 -- SMIRK

7 -- MARTIAL EAGLE

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- OTHERS TO CONSIDER: 2 -- GAMBLERS FANTASY -- 4 - NEW EAGLE) 


The Play:

So many ways to go after these final four today, depending on how much you want to "put down" to invest. I'll probably go with a couple of  .50 cent Pick 3's and I'm going to back track here in doing so with a VERY competitive 6th race where (4) horses stand out and above the rest. 

So, I'll try: 

Race 6 -- 1,2,3,6

Race 7 -- 4,5,6,7,8.9

Race 8 -- 1.5,6,10,12,13

Cost: $72

*********************************


Race 8 -- 1.5.6.10.12.13

Race 9 -- 2,3,6,9

Race 10 -- 1,2,4,7,8,11

Cost $72


Just to keep things interesting, I'll toss in a small Pick 5 as well, starting in Race 6: 

1,2,3,6/ 5,6,7/5,10,12/2,3,9/1/8/

Cost $108

You can devise a Pick 4 out of this, of course -- and I'd suggest 

5,6,7/ 1,5,10,12/2,3,6,9/1,8/11

Cost $72

Play 'em  anyway you like...trifectas could get pricey if you "box" so maybe do some wheeling with the picks. ..

Good luck! 


paulie



Sunday, November 15, 2020

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/14/20

 A good day yesterday handicapping the final four races at Churchill Downs. I had three scratches face me, so I had to do a bit of late scrambling with the bets and the feature race-- the 9th and Grade III Ms. Revere was moved to the dirt from the turf, but I still managed to hit that one. 

In the final analysis, I had 20 runners go forth...when you look at my top picks and my "if scratches occur" selections. Out of those, I had 4 winners, 4 seconds and 1 show.  So, it wasn't a grand day for trifectas, but, I did give you four exactas and the Pick 4. The "in the money" percentage was 45% and I filled nine of the 12 "payable" slots for a 75% success rate there. 

Race 8 brought BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL to the wire first and he rewarded us at 14-1 with Julian Leparoux on board for one of my favorite Churchill trainers --  Paul McGee. MAKE NOISE scratched, which necessitated putting Big Beautiful Wall into the mix and he got it done  That exacta paid $131 on the $1 investment. 

Race 9 saw PATIO FLAG draw a lot of money after VILLANELLE scratched and she edged out the favorite OCEAN BREEZE at 7-5 odds to get to the wire first. The combination  of Santana riding and Asmussen training scores again and the $1 exacta paid a small $4.80 

Race 10, the feature racce -- the Ms. Revere Grade III,  drew a lot of money on winner PRINCESS GRACE after favorite HENDY WOODS scratched and she fulfilled the backers belief at 5-2 odds. PASS THE PLATE, trained by Paul McGee, could not catch her in the stretch. Meet leading rider Florent Geroux was the winning jockey and the $1 exacta got you $16.60. That race was the only trifecta I hit, receiving $68.70. If you decided to "roll your Pick 3's" in the final four races this one rewarded you with a $89.50 payout on the .50 cent attempt. 

The final race of the day Race 11 is where I thought there might be a longshot winner. It ran pretty true to form, though, with 5-2 HONORIFIQUE nosing out ROOKERY for the final win on the day. $.9.90 on the $1 exacta, that rolling Pick 3 got you $27.40 on the .50 cent wager and the late Pick Four, with the numbers 9-2-4-12 rewarded you with $370.35 on the ,50 cent try. Tyler Gaffalione rode the winner. 

If you played the Paulie Picks for the final Pick 4 verbatim, you laid out $135 for a $370 return, so that gave you a +$235 profit. The trifectas, though cost $30 a race for $120, and just got me back $68, so I lost $52 there. But, that still had me up $183 on the day. I'll take it. 

If you had gone the five-horse, $1 exacta box route for the four races, you would have turned your $80 investment into $162, a $82 profit...so congratulations if that's how you played the day. 

                                                         *********************************                   

We'll give it a go again next Saturday for closing weekend at Churchill. A longstanding tradition of mine of hitting the track on the Friday after Thanksgiving probably isn't going to happen, with this Covid shit getting worse each day, but, I may look at the final four races there as well and offer you FRIDAY and SATURDAY selections next week. 


paulie 

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