CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 11/29/21

 So, another "close but no cigar" in my Saturday picks. I gave you 16 horse to consider yesterday in the final four races at Churchill.  I had three winners, four seconds and three thirds -- good for a 69% "in the money" number.  I filled 10 of the 12 payable spots for a 83% success rate. 

Race 9 -- I  had the exacta with TEJANO TWIST (6/5) first and BARBER ROAD second. Joe Rocco got the win for W. Bret Calhoun with a perfectly timed ride. 

Race 10 -- I hit the trifecta with DREAM LITH (9-1) first, YUUGIRI second and SANDSTONE third. Ramon Vasquez in saddle for Roberto Doidoro. 

Race 11 -- SMILE HAPPY (9/2) knocked off the two favorites to win the Ky Jockey Club Stakes. Corey Lanerie guided him home for Kenny McPeek. I had CLASSIC CAUSEWAY for second and WHITE ALBERRO for third. 

Race 12- Another trifecta for me with MARISSA'S LADY (3-1) getting the win for Rafael Bejarano and William Morey. I also had MALAREYA in second and SWEET DANI GIRL in third. 

A nice Pick 4 if you were smarter than me and included SMILE HAPPY in it -- $502.20 on the .50 cent wager. 

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I now "take the rest of the year off" and I'll start Paulie Picks up again when they return to Keeneland in the spring of 2022.   Thank you for following and we'll see ya then. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWND SELECTIONS -- 11/27/21

 

A nice Saturday card at Churchill as the fall meet winds down. Four stakes races (9-12) close it out, so that's where we'll go.

This will be the final Paulie Picks for the year. We'll pick it back up when the ponies return to Keeneland in the spring of 2022. 

UPDATED 411 pm

RACE 9 -- LIVELY SHIVELY -- $200K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 -- TEJANO TWIST

8 -- HOIST THE GOLD

7 -- BARBER ROAD

3  - CHATTALOT

RACE 10 -- GOLDENROD STAKES -- GII -- $400K-- 1-1/16TH MILE

4 -- SANDSTONE

1 -- FAMED

6 - -YUUGIRL

7 -- DREAM LITH

RACE 11 -- KY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES -- GII -- $400K -- 1=1/16TH MILE

5 -- HOWLING TIME

1 -- CLASIC CAUSEWAY

6 -- TIZ THE BOMB scratch

10 -- WHITE ALBARRO

7 -- VIVAR

RACE 12 -- FERN CREEK STAKES -- $200 K -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

6 -- MARISSA'S LADY

8  -- SWEET DANI GIRL

2 -- MALAREYA

1 -- GOLDEN SIGHTS scratch

5 -- KNOWING GLANCE

THE PLAY

I'll chase my final Pick 4  of the year. 

Going three deep in Race 9 (5,7,8) then four deep in Races 10-12, off my picks. You could go "single" in Race 9 on Tejano Road, he's that good -- but it's horseracing and anything can happen...t's your call. COST $96

See ya in the spring!

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 11/20/21

 Another "oh,so close, but no cigar" day for me in handicapping the late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs. I gave you 16 horses I thought would run well Saturday and had three winners, three seconds and three thirds in Races 8-11. That's a 56% "in the money" percentage.  Out of the 12 "payable" spots  -- I Filled nine, for 75% success, 

RACE 8 -- CENTER AISLE got the win (6/5) pretty easily with Joel Rosario riding for Paulo Lobo. I had her, second place MISS MOSAIC and third place SUN PATH. A good start to the sequence.

RACE 9 -- This one was the wrecker. TULANE TRYST launched a late stretch drive (2-1) to catch and pass my top pick COOL QUEST right at the wire. Churchill favorite jockey  Brian Hernandez, Jr sunk my Pick 4 for Charlie DeVaux. So close...

RACE 10 -- In the Chilukki Stakes, OBLIGATORY (3/2) got the win for Joel Rosario and Billy Mott. I had her, MALERA for second and MISS BIGLY for show.

RACE 11 -- DAME JOVIALE broke her maiden in the final (6-1) with James Graham in the saddle and George Arnold training. I had her, along with TAKE A STAND for second

The Pick 4 paid $95.65 on the .50 cent wager. 

A Big stakes card at Churchill next Saturday and we'll give it a go

paulie 

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS -- 11/20/21

 

A cool but clear and dry day for Fall racing at Churchill Downs this Saturday. A bit of everything in the Late Pick 4 -- with a optional claiming, allowance, stakes and maiden races to close out the card. iT'S, OF COURSE, ALL ON THE DIRT. The track should be fast. 

I'll checK back later today for scratches and update my picks as needed Good Luck!

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING - 63K - SIX AND 1/2 FURLONGS

4 -- CENTER AISLE

7 -- MISS MOSAIC

3 -- SUN PATH

2 -- SLAM DUNK 

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -  127K - SIX FURLONGS

1 -- COOL QUEST

2 -- PIRATE RICK

6 -- GULFSTREAM WAY

3 -- NAME REJECTED

RACE 10 -- CHILUKKI STAKES -- 300K -- ONE MILE

 7 -- OBLIGATORY

3 -- MATERA

4 -- MISS BIGLY

1 -- SHE CAN'T SING

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN -- 120K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- FABULOUS FANNY

9 -- LISCOLVIN

7 -- DAME JOVIALE

5 -- TAKE A STAND

THE PLAY

I'll stand by my top four picks in each of the four races and play my late Pick 4 that way. It'll cost you $128 on the .50 cent Pick 4. 

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS RESULTS -- 11/13/21

 

An OK Day handicapping Churchill Saturday's card, but I ultimately fell short on the goal of hitting the late Pick 4. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider in Races 8-11, I had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% in the money number. I filled eight of the 12 payable slots.--good for a 66% success rate. 

(Honestly, I made my money yesterday on Race 5 yesterday.  I loved Parlance, with Leparoux riding for Steve Asmussen and he won convincingly. That $60 investment ($20 WPS) brought me back $212 and paid for my Pick 4 foolishness. 

RACE 8 -- EPICENTER (3-1) knocked me out of the Pick 4 early. A wire-to-wire win for Joel Rosario and Asmussen. I had SEAL BEACH, who ran a good second. 

RACE 9 -- GIRL WITH A DREAM was sent off at even money and got it done for Rosario again, this time with Brad Cox training. I also had PIPELINE GIRL, who ran third. 

RACE 10 -- SCONSIN scratched and that was my top pick in the Dream Supreme Stakes. I did have BELL'S THE ONE,(4/5) who nudged out CLUB Car, who I also had. Corey Lanerie won on his 47th. birthday for Neil Pessin. I also had FRANK'S ROCKETTE who ended up third. 

RACE 11 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT (2-1) ran down ALMANZO to win the final. I had both. James Graham on board for J. Keith Desormeaux. I also had QUICK TO BLAME who gathered show money. 

The Pick 4 paid a paltry $30.65 on the .50 cent ticket. 

We'll give it a "go" next week.

paulie

CHURCHILL DOWNS PICKS 11-13-21

Cloudy and cold at Churchill today. 

Ive looked at thee Late PICK 4 and my picks are below: 

RACE 8 -- MSW -- $120K -- ONE MILE

5 -- MASK PATROL

7 -- SEAL BEACH

8 -- SEVEN FLAT

6 -- CLOUDY

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- $127K -- SIX FURLONGS 

3 -- GIRL WITH A DREAM

5 -- LADY DANAE

7 -- PIPELINE GIRL

1 -- SUNDAY GRACE

RACE 10 -- DREAM SURPREME STAKES -- $300K -- SIX FURLONGS

4 -- SCONSIN

6 -- BELL'S THE ONE

7 -- FRANK'S ROCKETTE

5 -- CLUB CAR

RACE 11 -- MSW -- $120K -- ONE MILE

1 -- ALMANZO

4 -- CALL ME MIDNIGHT

9 -- OILER

8 -- QUICK TO BLAME

(ALSO WATCH -- 10 -- BRAWNDO) 

I'm playing the Late Pick 4 with my picks. Let's win one !

Good luck today!

paulie

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RESULTS --- 11/6/21

 A great day of racing in the Breeders Cup yesterday with a few big surprises several amazing finishes. No rain and a nine race Breeders Cup Stakes race sequence I attempted to handicap. 

I provided 34 horses (after scratches) to consider in the nine races. Out of those, I had six winner, six places and five shows. That equals out to a 50% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 27 "payable" spots I filled 17 for a 63% success rate. 

RACE 4 -- CECE upset GAMINE to take the F&M Sprint. at 6-1 odds. I had both. A well timed ride by Victor Espinoza for Michael McCarthy. 

RACE 5 -- In the Turf Sprint, GOLDEN PAL (5/2) proved to be best. I had him and LT.DAN who ran second. Irad Ortiz, Jr had the mount for Wesley Ward.

RACE 6 -- What a convincing win in the Dirt Mile by LIFE IS GOOD (3/5). I had that one and GINOBILI, who ran second. Another win for Irad Ortiz, Jr, this time for Todd Pletcher. The Pick 3 paid $55.05 on the .50 cent wager. 

RACE 7 -- In the F&M Turf, a bit of a surprise when LOVES YOU ONLY got the win at 4-1 odds. The Japanese entry beat my picks MY SISTER NAT, who ran second and WAR LIKE GODDESS, who got third. Yuga Kawada got his firsst-ever Breeders Cup race win and Yoshitu YAhagi trained. A $26.75 Pick 3 payout.

RACE 8 -- ALOHA WEST hit the wire first in the Sprint, and I had him at 11-1 odds. A great ride from Jose Ortiz for Wayne Catalano. I also had DR.SCHIVEL, who got second in a photo. $80.50 on the Pick 3. 

RACE 9 -- SPACE BLUES ruled in the Turf Mile at 2-1 odds. I also had SMOOTH LIKE STRAIGHT who ran third. The Irish entry was piloted by William Buick and trained by Charles Appleby. 

RACE 10 -- A big bomb exploded in the Distaff when 45-1 shot MARCHE LORRAINE crossed the wire first. Oisin Murphy got his first Breeders Cup Day win ever for Japanese trainer Yoshito Yagagi. I had MALATHAAT, who got third. The Pick 3 was worth $1679.50 !! 

RACE 11 -- YIBIR (8-1) took a highly contested Turf race. The Great Britain entry was ridden by William Buick for Charles Appleby. I had TEONA, who ended up third. $947.75 on the Pick 3. 

RACE 12 -- It was KNICKS GO from gate-to-wire in the Classic at 2-1 odds. I loved this one, and had him, along with third place runner ESSENTIAL QUALITY. Joel Rosario with the win for Brad Cox. The Pick 3 paid $917.50 and if you were fortunate to hit that Late Pick 4 -- congratulations on a $4403.75 pay day.  It should be noted they ran the "Derby Distance" of 1-1.4th miles in 1:59:57 --  almost breaking the Breeders Cup record of 1:59:02 back in 2004 at Lone Star Park by Ghostzapper.

It was a rough day of wagering for me, I tried (6) rolling pick threes and the Late Pick 4. A layout of $288 and return of just $55.05. Maybe that's why I don't bet California tracks anymore...A good day for Japanese racing, Charles Appleby, William Buick and Irad Ortiz, Jr who all got two wins. 

We'll "give it a go" next Saturday at Churchill.

paulie