Sunday, June 16, 2019
The rain held off and it was a picture perfect night for racing at Churchill Downs.
I handicapped the six stakes races on the card (5-10) and ended up with one scratch. Paddy's Day didn't go in the 10th. Maybe waiting for St. Patrick's Day?
Out of the 23 horses I gave you that actually broke from the gate...I had five winners, three places and three shows. We captured 11 of the 18 possible "pay" spots (61%) and 48% of my picks hit the board.
Some nice prices as well.. MARCH TO THE ARCH in the sixth paid $23.00 on a $2 win ticket. QUIP in the eighth returned $13.80 for a $2 place bet. HARD LEGACY in the ninth was worth $13.80 for $2 to win and RB TEXAS HOLD EM got you $17.80 on a $2 win wager.
Following the $2 across the board strategy that was implemented last week by a reader, I laid out $138 on $2 win, place and show total bets on my 23 runners. I got back $157. A $19 profit isn't worth running down Central Ave. screaming your lungs out about...but it's enough to handle a few beers and a dog out there "on them".
Race 8 was the race that kept me from going 6 for 6 with winners...my picks ran second with QUIP and third with TOM'S D'ETAT. I probably should have tossed SEEKING THE SOUL...the winner of Race 8 in there...but neither Yoshida nor Gift Box ran like I thought they would and Johnny V. edged quip by a neck with a nice stretch run.
Otherwise, I gave you MR. MONEY (5TH RACE), MARCH TO THE ARCH (6TH RACE), ELATE (7TH RACE), HARD LEGACY (9TH RACE) AND RB TEXAS HOLD EM (10TH RACE) as winners...and they did.
If you were playing the Pick 3, 4 or 5 wagers, it wasn't a good night for you.
I'll be back later this month with a look at more racing.
Churchill Downs goes to night racing today for Stephan Foster Night. They're having a Mardi Gras theme, so, if you go...dress and act accordingly. Beads and gumbo maybe? You make the call. Maybe a Hurricane or two.
There are six stakes races on the card and some very good ones, so let's take a look at all six and see who I'm looking at to make money.
RACE 5 -- MATT WINN STAKES
2 - SIGNALMAN
6 - MR. MONEY
4 - KNICKS GO
3 - NO LO CONTESTO
RACE 6 -- WISE DAN STAKES
6 - SIEM RIEP
9 - MARCH TO THE ARCH
12 - ADMISSIONS OFFICER
10 - EL PICARO
RACE 7 -- FLEUR DE LIS STAKES
3 - ELATE
2 - SHE'S A JULIE
5 - BLUE PRIZE
4 - GO GOOGLE YOURSELF
RACE 8 -- STEPHEN FOSTER STAKES
10 - QUIP
9 - TOM'S D 'ETAT
6 - GIFT BOX
12 - YOSHIDA
RACE 9 -- REGRET STAKES
4 - VARENKA
10 - GAMBLIN TRAIN
11 - PRINCESA CAROLINA
5 - HARD LEGACY
RACE 10 -- PRESIDENT OF THE U.A.E. STAKES
5 - EASTER MAN
6 - RB TEXAS HOLD 'EM
8 - PADDY'S MAN
9 - QUICK AND RICH
There is a chance for rain this evening (it's Louisville and a weekend, so that's almost always a certainty) so be ready for scratches and such. Like I say, play 'em anyway you want. Good luck!
Saturday, June 8, 2019
This Saturday Belmont race day card is imposing, impressive and intriguing in terms of handicapping. I've chosen to concentrate on Races 7-11 for my picks today. All high quality stakes races here, all Grade I and some tough decisions.
To play a multi-race Pick 5 (or even Pick 3) looks like it could be quite costly, so I'm going this route. I've identified my to five horses in each race. I'll try a $1 exacta box in each race with these and a .50 cent trifecta box. We're looking at an outlay, then, of $50 per race and a sum total of $250 wagered.
RACE 7 -- ACORN -- 1 MILE
7 - GUARANA
1 - SERENGETI EMPRESS
3 - COOKIE DOUGH
8 - QUEEN OF BEAS
9 - CECE
RACE 8 -- WOODY STEPHENS -- 7 FURLONGS
9 - MIND CONTROL
1 - HONEST MISCHIEF
3 - BORRACHO
4 - COMPLEXITY
8 - HOG CREEK HUSTLE
RACE 9 -- METROPOLITAN -- 1 MILE
3 - MITOLE
1 - COAL FRONT
2 - MCKINZIE
9 - PRINCE LUCKY
4 - THUNDER SHOW
RACE 10 -- MANHATTAN -- 1-1/4TH MILE (TURF)
8 - BRICKS AND MORTAR
4 - QURBAAN
7 - OLYMPICO
10 - CHANNEL MARKER
9 - EPICAL
RACE 11 -- BELMONT STAKES -- 1-1/2 MILE
10 - TACITUS (I think he'll like the extra distance)
9 - WAR OF WILL ( All reports are he's looking good and ready to go)
3 - MASTER FENCER ( Made up a lot of ground in Ky. Derby in stretch)
7- SIR WINSTON ( Was closing in the Peter Pan)
4 - TAX ( Likes a fast track, adds Irad Ortiz)
I gave you 25 horses to consider over the five race sequence on Belmont Day at Belmont. Minus a scratch...24 went to the gate.
There were 15 "money" or win, place and show spots up for grabs. How'd I do?
I provided five winners! Some nice $2 win prices included in there, with Hog Creek Hustle ($39.80) Sir Winston ($22.40) and Mitole ($9.00)
I also gave out three horses who ran second. Three selections came in third. That a 73% success race in filling the money sports (11-15) and 46% rate on all my selections making money (11-24).
The $1 Pick 4 that ended in Race 11 paid $4,236.00. It would have cost you $500.
Sadly, the reality here is that I wasn't willing to toss down $500.
It should be noted that there were also Three Pick 3 chances in the sequence. Starting with race seven, they would have cost you $125.00, $100.00 and $100.00 to play on the $1 wager. Those paid $341.00, $199.50 and $147.50. A total investment of $325 would have returned you $688. A profit of $363.
Last but not least, a NYRA Pick 5 was offered for races 7-11. A $1 wager on it, using my picks, would have been expensive at $3,000. It returned $20,405.50, though, for a profit over over $17,000.
Maybe the old adage "it takes money to make money" was justified yesterday.
I got a nice e-mail this morning (Sunday) from a reader who decided to take my picks and play them "her" way. She put a $2 WPS bet on each of the five horses over the five race sequence. How did she do? She stuck $50 in her on-line account and sat back and enjoyed the racing while her husband was off to Patterson Stadium and then the track for baseball and racing.
In race seven, she wagered $30 but got back just $21, so she was -$9 going into race eight.
Her $30 investment returned $71.80 in the eighth race for a profit of $41.80 on the race and $32.80 for the day.
Race nine's $30 wager brought back $26.60, for a loss of $3.40 on the race but still an overall profit of $29.40.
In the tenth race, one of my picks was scratched, so the total investment was just $24. That investment paid just $8.40, though...so she lost $15.60 on the race and her profit for the day was down to $13.80.
In the Belmont Stakes, the 11th race, the $30 investment brought back $44.40. A return profit of $14.40 in the race and an overall profit of $28.20 on the day.
We like it when people make money...
Saturday, June 1, 2019
The Twin Spires get illuminated tonight with a "throwback theme" to 1969 and racing that begins at 6 p.m.
I've selected four plays for the evening:
RACE 3 : #4 Rumandice looks far and away the best here. You won't get much of a price on this one but could be a "single" for vertical stuff like Pick 3's or the early Pick 4. I'll go $50 to win.
RACE 7: I'm going to try a .50 cent trifecta layer here that will feature #5 Grandezza and #10 Second Coming on top. I included #5 and #10 with #3, #6, and #8 for second and went really deep for third with #1, #2, #3, #5, #6, #8 and #10. $20 is the cost on the .50 cent version
RACE 8 : This late Pick 4 looks like it could produce a nice return, so let's spend a bit to make a bunch. I'll go the .50 cent Pick 4 -- starting with #2, #3 in the eighth, #2, #5, #6, #9 #10 in the ninth, #1, #2, #3, #6, #7 in the tenth and finish it with #1, #4, #5 #9 in the eleventh. Cost you a "C" note.
Yes, it's a $100 wager and might be a bit steep for some, but, I think it'll easily pay $300 or more on the .50 cent variety, though, and probably much more. You could form a "pool" and include a couple/few folks to lighten the load, of course. A Pick 3 for races 9.10,11 gets you out for $50 and I'll probably venture there as well
Total outlay for the night: $220. I expect much more coming back to me.
#4 RUMANDICE was the best in Race 3 and deservedly so, got hammered at the windows.
Still I got back $90 for $50 wagered and we always accept a outcome that is profitable.
My Race 7 trifecta probably should have been just a straight out WPS on #5 Grandezza. He won for fun and returned $6.20 on a $2 wager. The trifecta was spolied by the 19-1 #1 horse running second, I figured that one was no better than third, so we dropped $20 there.
I bet the late Pick 3 and Pick 4 as outlined above. I did a .50 cent variety in both sequences.
Out of that total of $150 wagered, the returns were $65.15 on the Pick 3 and $162.20 on the Pick 4. Not as high of a return as I hoped for (are they ever?) but $237 is what I collected for this outlay of $150 and that's a profit of $87.
So, for the night, on these four selected wagers, I made a profit of $107. I'll walk out of there anytime with that. Sometimes a bettor tries to "beat the track" and go for every win in every race. Last night, I got selective and it was beneficial.
Be sure to check back on Belmont Day (June 8th.) for a few selections from that card and also from what looks to be shaping up to be a very nice card at Churchill, too.
Monday, May 27, 2019
Only a couple of picks here today for you today out at Churchill. Be advised, front-runners and inside posts have been performing very well out at the Twin Spires. Don't let odds scare you.
RACE 3 --- I'll solo Juliet Foxtrot here in anything I do. She debuted well for Brad Cox and should make it two in a row.
RACE 8 -- Looking at a stone cold, trifecta box with SOAP BUBBLE, TOBACCO ROAD and WHISKEY ECHO here. A late Pick Three with BREAKFAST POND AND DADDY'S MELODY in race seven, the aforementioned three in Race 8 and the "all" button in the final might make you a few shillings.
Have a great Memorial Day weekend.
(Recap...the $5.40 back on $2 bet on Juliet Foxtrot set up a nice profit. It was a day to play Julian Leparoux...he won four out of the last five races and that helped the bankroll as well. )
Thursday, May 16, 2019
Saturday, May 11, 2019
Churchill Downs has a 100 K Stakes race going on Saturday. Gee, I wonder where they found the money to do that?
Anyway, it's the Mamzelle Stakes, it'll go on the turf and it's a sprinter for 5 furlongs. It is RACE 9 ON THE CHURCHILL CARD
Wesley Ward has entered three runners and I definitely like two of them
#5 Chelsea Cloisters will get Brian Hernandez, Jr to ride. This one ran a huge race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year at 24-1 against Bulletin to finish second. "C.C." went toe-to-toe with the winner before fading near the wire. A trip to Keeneland this spring in another Stakes race produced a third place finish, once again, contending and fading late. The works have looked good and Chelsea could get the win today. Maybe 7/2 odds, if you're lucky. My top pick.
#7 Catherinethegreat has Julian Leparoux riding for Mark Casse and this filly goes to the turf for the first time and at a shorter distance than she did in the fall, where she ran against Restless Rider and other top quality horses at Keeneland and Saratoga. She had a graded stakes win at Saratoga last summer and has been training great for her 2019 opener. She should love the turf and the shorter distance
#9 Abyssinian is the second of three Wesley Ward entries and one I do like a lot. Tyler Gaffalione takes over in the saddle. This gal ran into Bulletin this spring at Keeneland and finished a closing third. Nothing but "bullet" works since that one indicate to me she's ready to try the Churchill turf.
Bulletin isn't in the house today. My second pick.
#12 Play On. Brad Cox goes to Shaun Bridgmohan for the ride today. She did finish behind Chelsea Cloisters this spring at Keeneland but Shaun wasn't on her that day and she won three in a row with him piloting at Fairgrounds and Gulfstream over the winter. She'll contest the early pace and have something to say about the finish.
(Ward's other horse is #1 Iva. She seems to win when Julio Garcia is on board and that's the case today but she got blown out in the Grade III Beaumont this spring at Keeneland and I have a hard time seeing her making a difference today. )
PAULIE PICKS 5-9-7-12
Next Saturday they'll contest the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The Preakness is run at Pimlico (for now...the track is falling apart, Maryland won't put any money into it and Laurel Race Course and others want that jewel....)
No Country House. No Maximum Security. No Code of Honor. No Tacitus. No Game Winner. No Omaha Beach or Roadster. Almost all the horses getting Derby chatter aren't contesting the Preakness. Only four of the 21 who were Derby considerations go to Baltimore, as of now.
Here's 11 who could show up.
ALWAYSMINING -- DANIEL CENTENO rides. Won the Tesio Stakes last out
ANOTHERTWISTAFATE -- JOSE ORTIZ up. 2nd in the Lexington
BODEXPRESS -- (NO JOCKEY NAMED) -- 13th in the Kentucky Derby
BOURBON WAR -- IRAD ORTIZ, JR on board. 4th in the Florida Derby
IMPROBABLE -- MIKE SMITH the jockey. 4th in the Kentucky Derby.
LAUGHING FOX -- RICARDO SANTANA gets the call. Won the Oaklawn Park Invitational
OWENDALE -- FLORENT GEROUX in the saddle. 1st in the Lexington
SIGNALMAN -- BRIAN HERNANDEZ, JR pilots. 3rd in the Blue Grass
WAR OF WILL -- TYLER GAFFALIONE returns. 7th in the Kentucky Derby
WARRIORS CHARGE -- JAVIER CASTELLANO jocks. Won an allowance race at Oaklawn
WIN WIN WIN -- JULIEN PIMENTEL has the reins. 9th in the Kentucky Derby.
You have a week to figure this mess out. As of right now, I'm looking at Improbable, War of Will and the Ortiz brothers mounts...Anothertwistafate and Bourbon War. We'll review it more on Friday.