KEENELAND RESULTS FROM 10/5/19

A pretty good day at my attempts to pick winners at Keeneland. The 10th race blew up completely on me, though...I even went five deep trying to snag the late Pick 4 and couldn't even get a horse in the money.

Buzz kill. 

I did have three winners in the sequence though, two seconds and a third. I provided seventeen runners to consider, six "hit the board" for a "in the money" percentage of 37.5% which is a little lower than I usually come up with, 

A $2 win, place and show wager total of $102 on all 17 brought back $82, so we dropped $20 on that venture. A $1 exacta box on my picks in the four race sequence cost $56 and returned $54, 

I got saved in the ninth race, though...with a .50 cent pick three that covered races seven through nine...which cost $32 and returned $89..

So a $135 lesson. I can't understand how I misjudged a $1 million turf race so badly...but, apparently...based on the payouts...a lot of people were on that wrong barge with me.  

That darn tenth race. It blew the tote board up. A 8-1 winner and higher odds than that in second and third. 

We move on with the gentle reminder that, despite our best intentions, we can't always win every race.  


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I'll be back in two weeks. A little sortie with the wife will have me out of the loop for a couple of days...in terms of handicapping and such. Given the way the results have come out in the first two days of the Keeneland meet, maybe that's not a bad thing !!


paulie
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KEENELAND 10/5/19 PICKS

The second day of racing at Keeneland's Fall Meet has a very enticing Pick 4 sequence which starts in the seventh race and has three Grade I and one Grade II races , so that is where I'll go today. 

RACE 7 -- SIX FURLONGS -- TCA -- GRADE II -- 250K

1 -- OURS TO RUN
3 -- SPICED PERFECTION
7 -- TALK VEUVE TO ME
8 -- CHALON


RACE 8 -- ONE MILE (TURF) -- FIRST LADY -- GRADE I -- 400K

3 -- JULIET FOXTROT
6 -- VASILIKA
4 -- UNI
11 -- RUSHING FALL


RACE 9 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILE -- BREEDERS FUTURITY -- GRADE I -- 500K 

1 -- TAP IT TO WIN
6 -- MAXFIELD
8 -- AJAAWEED
10 -- GOUVERNEUR MORRIS


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE (TURF) -HADWELL -- GRADE I -- 1 MILLION DOLLARS

3 -- BANDUA
4 -- VALID POINT
6 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE
11 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH  
13 -- DIVISIDERO 


(Note -- I'll probably go five deep in the final, depending on how the day goes early. So many great runners in the $1 million Shadwell.)

Play 'em however you like. We had success at Churchill with the $2 WPS wager on the runners -- $24 per race -- except for the final...a $30 wager.  It's a safe way to play. Today also might be a good day to play a $2 EXACTA box with the selected runners. A investment of $24 a race with four selections and $40 with five.  

Good luck and, remember...it takes money to make money


paulie
xxxxx

SATURDAY RESULTS FROM 9/28/19

Saturday wasn't exactly what I wanted, as far as results went, I did not hit the Late Pick 4, but there were some successes.
.
Out of the 16 runners I had in Races 8-11...I had (2) winners, (3) second places and (3) shows.
A 50% "in the money" percentage. A $2 across the board wager on all was a $96 investment. It returned $98.60 so a small profit there. We did catch a 9-1 and 5-1 on top in our wins, so that was pretty cool.

We'll close the book on the .Twin Spires now until November and head east on I-64 to see what Keeneland has to offer


paulie
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CLOSING NIGHT AT CHURCHILL PICKS 9-28-19

11 races on the closing night of the September meeting at Churchill. A TOUGH LATE PICK 4 SEQUENCE...no doubt about it...but we'll go after it and see how we do. 

RACE 8 -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) -- JEFFERSON CUP --$125K

6 -- TRACKSMITH
4 -- MICK'S STAR
5 -- FARAWAY KITTEN
1 -- SCARS ARE COOL


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- LUKAS CLASSIC GIII -- $250K

8 -- KUKULKAN
10 -- MOCITO ROJO
4 -- QUIP
7 -- PIONEER SPIRIT


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE -- OPT. CLAIMING -- $34K

9 -- PATTI PATTI PATTI
6 -- KIMBERLY DREAM
8 -- DARLIN ROSE
4 -- COLORIN COLONEL


RACE 11 -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS -- CLAIMING -- $20K

5 -- JIMMY JOE
9 -- LONTANI
11 -- GRADE
6 -- ALL AROUND 
12 -- ADMIRAL BROWN

(YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED I GAVE YOU FIVE PICKS IN RACE 11. I'M  "GOING THE 
EXTRA MILE" HERE...SINCE IT IS THE FINAL RACE ON THE FINAL NIGHT, THESE
ARE PRETTY CHEAP CLAIMERS AND ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.) I MAY ROLL THE DICE ON THE SUPER HIGH FIVE, 

TOTAL OUTLAY IF YOU PLAY THE PICK 4 IS $160. SINCE I AM "WAY UP" ON THE
TRACK FOR THE SEPT. MEET, I DON'T MIND GOING THE EXTRA $32 TO SEE IF I
CAN TAKE DOWN THE PICK 4. 

PLAY 'EM HOWEVER YOU LIKE, THOUGH, AND REMEMBER WHAT I SAY: 

IT TAKES MONEY TO MAKE MONEY.

paulie
xxxxx

SATURDAY 9-21-19 RESULTS FROM CHURCHILL

I tackled the late Pick 4 at Churchill Saturday and hit it. Because of a couple scratches in the last race, the cost dropped in half to play it ($64). It returned $166.95, on the 50 cent wager,  so that was a profitable play with abut a $100 profit. . 

Our tout on Blunt Force in the second race turned out O.K. as well. Although the Paul McGee runner didn't win, Ol' Blunt ran a strong second, surrendering the lead in the final 1/16th after forging to the lead in the stretch. The $2 pay out was $5.40 to place and $2.20 to show...so, for every $6 invested on a win, price and show bet -- you got a profit of $1.60 back. I ventured $20 to win, $30 to place and $50 to show and thought for a moment I was going to sweep the whole mutual return. I gladly accepted the $40 profit. We'll keep an eye on this runner. 

On the late Pick 4 sequence, the numbers: 

Out of the 14 runners we chose that broke from the gate in the four races, I scored four winners, two places and one show. A 50% "in the money" average. A $2 win, place and show on all 14 cost $84. I got back $84.10. 

Coufefe, the huge favorite in Race 10, toyed with the small field before drawing away in the stretch. Look out, BREEDERS CUP, she's coming to see you !!

Renaissance Frolic looked great in winning the 8th race as my third pick, Wasabi Girl was my top pick in the 9th race and ran down Josie, my second pick to win, and -- despite only having two horses in the 11th race, In Good Spirits got the win and Hey Kitten finished third.  

Play certain numbers? #6 hit the board in three of the four races. So did #3. #1 got two payouts out of the four races. 

paulie
xxxxx 

Saturday 9-21-19 Churchill Picks -- Late Pick 4

We'll try the late Pick 4 again at Churchill's September meet (races 8-11) and hope for a little better success than last week. Four challenging races await, with two nice optional claiming affairs -- one of the turf -- the Dogwood Stakes (with a prohibitive favorite in a small field) and a maiden special weight on the turf to close it out. 

Here we go. 

RACE 8 -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,500 


1 - CAPE ANGEL
2 - BEMMA'S BOY
6 - RENAISSANCE FROLIC
5 - HE'S CHEEKY 


RACE 9 -- 6 FURLONGS OPTIONAL CLAIMING $75,000 


5 - WASABI GIRL
11 - JOSIE
7 - AMERICAN LEGEND
3 - BANKER'S CHARM


RACE 10 -- THE DOGWOOD STAKES 7 FURLONGS $125,000


6 - COUFEFE
1 - BELL'S THE ONE
2 - TAKE CHARGE ANGEL 
5 - CHAMPAGNE ANYONE


RACE 11 -- 1 MILE (TURF) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $95.000


3 - HEY KITTEN
1 - IN GOOD SPIRITS
12 - SHE CAN'T SING
11 - RAIN DANCE


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<SPECIAL !! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

( I'm hearing some GREAT THINGS about a horse in today's second race. #5 BLUNT FORCE -- a Paul McGee runner -- came into his own this summer with a win at a mile down at the ol' pea patch -- ELLIS PARK -- this one could be one to watch at 1-1/16th and might have a bit of a price. A nice closing stretch run against similar down there could be repeated today. Consider.) 


Good luck today and play 'em anyway you see fit !! 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday results from Churchill

An interesting day two for the Churchill meet. 

In the late Pick 4, only one favorite got his picture taken, and what a promising one in Dennis' Moment, in the Iroquois Stakes, He toyed with the rest of the field. Watch this one, readers. 


I had 15 of my 16 picks break from the gate...British Idiom, was scratched in the Pocahontas. Out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 53% in the money percentage. 

If you are a "numbers" player...the #2 post position produced three winners on the 11 race card. #4 had two winners and the post positions #1, #6, #7, #8, #10 and #11 one winner each.

A Pick 4 wager that fell apart in the ninth race with Portrait unable to close in the Pocahontas and  knock me out of the wager. Bye, bye $96 investment.  

A $2 across the board wager on all 15 of my runners cost $90. It returned $105.80, so a small profit there. 


paulie
xxxxx