Saturday Late Pick 4 Gulfstream 2/22/20

A challenging, late Pick 4 sequence to consider in South Florida, so let's give it a whirl. A good jockey colony on hand, top trainers and two stakes races and two allowance races make up the four-race slate. 

RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE -- 7 FURLONGS -- DIRT

7 - SILVER RATIO
8 - VIOLENT CITY
2 - BAD LITTLE BEAST
3 - COST BASIS

(Note:  These four look like the main contenders and I couldn't make an argument for any others, so we'll go with these.) 

RACE 9 -- STAKES 100k -- 6 FURLONGS -- DIRT

2 - LASTING LEGACY
5 - JACKSON
4 - ADMIRAL LYNCH
1 - EPIC DREAMER

( Note:  I do like longshot Jackson in here, the connections arre "right" but Lasting Legacy will be tough to beat, I tossed in the other two in case it "falls apart" in the stretch.) 


RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE -- 1 MILE -- TURF

10 - LARGENT
1 - AWARD WINNER
11- UNCLE MOJO
3 - PROLIFERATE

(Note:  Toughest race of the sequence for me to handicap. A challenging turf mile. In addition to the four about, I do think Bourbon Winner has to merit some consideration, so I'll toss him in the fray as well) 


RACE 11 -- STAKES -- 6 FURLONGS -- 6 FURLONGS -- DIRT

2 - SOUND MACHINE
5 - FRANK'S ROCKETTE
6 - STILL ALIVE

(Note:  It's a two-hose race between Sound Machine and Frank's Rockette the way I see it. I did toss Still Alive in because of rider Lopez and his fondness of "getting out and going") 

Good luck today an bet 'em however you want! Remember, never put the mortgage on a mudder! 


paulie
xxxxx 

SATURDAY RESULTS FROM RISEN STAR AT FAIRGROUNDS

RISEN STAR RAISES BANKROLL 

I've had a saying here at Paulie's Picks over the years, Sometimes you need to spend a little money to make a little money. That proved to be the case yesterday when I outlined a comprehensive but a bit expensive Pick 4. The $128 investment returned $1840.30 on a fifty cent Pick Four wheel. If you played it as a $2 wager, the cost would have been $512, but your return was $7,361.20. 

On the day, I offered a total of 19 horses to consider for the sequence. I ended up playing 17 of them. Seven runners in race 10, three runners in race 11, four horses in race 12 and three horses in race 13. Out of the 17, I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 59% "in the money number, and we filled 75% of the win, place and show pool for the sequence. No matter how you played the picks, you had success. I hit three exactas, two triectas, both Pick 3's and the Pick 4. 

The winners paid $18.00, $7.40, $17.00 and $27.80. Exactas returned $18.80, $15.00 and $83.20. The trifectas awarded $73.20 and $287.00. The two Pick 3's in the four race sequence were worth $450.00 and $914.80. 

It was a good day at Fairgrounds, no matter how you bet the picks. 

Knocking off the favorites in each race boosted the pot. Off our "watch" list in the 10th, Factor Time wired the field at 8-1 odds. My top pick in the 11th, Finite, upset heavily favored British Idiom at 5-2 odds. Mr. Monomoy, another top pick for me, ran past Enforcable to win at 8-1 odds.in Race 12. In the 13th. race, Modernist, rode the rail like I surmised he would, and upset Anneau D'or at 13-1 odds. 

I love days like this. 

Obviously, I'm not going to guarantee you these kind of results each Saturday here. But, it's a nice start to the "Derby trail" handicapping. A friend, Curtis F., called me after the 13th. race ecstatic. He tried the two Pick 3's in the sequence, spent $112 on the first Pick 3 and $64 on the second pick 3...$1 wheels each, and cashed out for $682. He also dabbled in a few win wagers and cleared about $150 on those. 

He highly recommends The Winners Circle off-track wagering facility, off Eastern Blvd., in Clarksville, IN. I haven't made the excursion there yet, but, others have told me it's a nice facility.  

Wake up, Kentucky legislatures. You could do the same. 



paulie
xxxxx

RISEN STAR KICKS OFF DERBY TRAIL

Welcome back to Paulie Picks! 

Fair Grounds is the place to be today, with the Risen Star for three-year olds split into two divisions, the Rachel Alexandra for 3 yr. old fillies taking place and a very challenging Grade III in Race 10 for four year olds and up. 

Let's take a look at who Paulie picks in these four. There is a late Pick 4 available here, beginning in Race 10,  so we'll try to hit it, as we shake off the dust on our handicapping skills and look at the racing in New Orleans today. 


RACE 10 -- FAIRGROUNDS STAKES -- GRADE III -- (TURF) -- 1-1/8TH MILES

2 - SYNCHRONY
5 - DONTBLAMEROCKET
9 - CAPTIVATING
12 -MIDNIGHT TEA TIME

(Note:  these are my top four picks, but it is a race I might go deeper in for the Pick 4. I'm also considering #4 - Factor This, #10 Space Mountain and #1 Wound Tight. The key here is to advance out of the first race, right? There are a couple of races upcoming where I feel we can "shorten up" the ticket.)  

RACE 11 -- RACHEL ALEXANDRA -- GRADE II --  (DIRT) -- 1-1/16TH MILES

6 - BRITISH IDIOM
7 - FINITE
5 - TEMPERS RISING 
3 - SWISS SKYDIVER

(Note: I will probably shorten the ticket here and go with my top three picks. #6 will get the money, #7 won the Silverbulletday and #5 was flying at the end from far back). 

RACE 12 -- RISEN STAR -- GRADE II -- (DIRT) -- 1-1/8TH MILES

9 - MR MONOMOY
8 - ENFORCEABLE
2 -- SILVER STATE
11 - SCABBARD

(Note: I like these four, they ran 1,2,3 in the Lecomte at Fairgrounds and Mr. Monomoy may have been the best horse in the Lecomte, He finished third due to traffic trouble on the turn for home but still gained the lead and led until the final jumps. Enforceable won and looked good doing it. Silver State closed on the outside to nip Mr. Monomoy for place. Scabbard ran evenly for fourth. I'm not seeing any invaders coming in and knocking off any of these.)

RACE 13 -- RISEN STAR -- GRADE II -- (DIRT) -- 1-1/8TH MILES

8 - ANNEAU D 'OR
5 - LIAM'S LUCKY CHARM
1 - MODERNIST
12 - NY TRAFFIC

(Note: Anneau D 'Or barely missed in the Breeders Cup and in the Los Al Grade II Futurity. Here's an West Coast invader who makes sense here.  Liam's Lucky Charm has developed a "bounce" pattern, winning 3 of his 5 races. He won last out at Tampa Bay, so, will he bounce here? I'll include him anyway. Modernist likes the tail, likes to run on the lead and play "come catch me". He has the rail but hasn't faced this level of competition yet. NY Traffic destroyed the field at Gulfstream last time out. He moves up in class but must be considered.) 

Good luck today, play 'em anyway you want and don't spend the mortgage money on mudders. 

--paulie-- 
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5

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RECAP

It was a good day playing the Breeders Cup Saturday card for me yesterday at Santa Anita. Out of the nine races, I had seven winners, seven seconds and three thirds. That's a 47% "in the money" percentage and that's not bad. 

I went after the races two different ways. First off, the usual $2 across the board on four runners per pace. That turned out to be $216 spent and $211 collected, so that was a bit of just exchanging money. 

The real success was in the Pick 4's. I played three of of the 50 cent variety...each one costing $128.

 The first one, from races 4 through 7 was an "almost". I hit three out of the four races but race five was my downfall -- no winner there. That was a $128 loss.

Next, I went after races 6-9. That was the bonanza ! The $128 wagered turned into a $1156 payout, 

I spent that same $128 for a late Pick 4 covering races 9 through 12. Not so good there, with just three out of four races putting me in the winners circle. Another $128 loss. The total Pick 4 profit, however, was great, $772 to the good. 

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I also got some great news Saturday morning. I had entered a "syndicate" late Pick 4 for Friday with five other people. We each tossed in $100. I gave some suggestions but didn't know the final horses that were bet. 

It was pretty much "drop off the money and make wise choices, fellas" kind of situation. Didn't even go into the track (because I've been "banned" by Churchill from going to "certain places"... long story there I'd prefer not to go into). Actually met a syndicate member in the lot and handed the $100 to him. We were both wearing grey raincoats and...just kidding !! 

(Note to Churchill -- I don't miss you. On-line works just fine for me.)  I know you're monitoring this website and my Facebook posts, also. Knock yourself out... 

That $600 turned into $18171 !!  After a tip to the teller, each syndicate member got back $3000 for their $100 invested !

I got the call Friday night about the win, but it went to voice mail and I didn't realize it or listen to the message until early Saturday. I figured we were beaten when a 45-1 shot won the final race in the sequence. Turns out, the group included the horse ! 

So, naturally...I stayed with the group for the late pick 4 on Saturday. Somehow, in Race 10, we failed to include 8-1 Blue Prize with Joe Bravo on board, so we got beaten there. I'm just as much to blame as anyone in the syndicate, I didn't suggest the runner. None of us did. We ran second, third, fourth, fifth and last in the tenth race. 

Toss in a 45-1 one day and leave out a 8-1 the next day. Yep, that's horse racing. . 


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We'll look at Churchill next Saturday. From afar, of course. 


paulie
xxxxx

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY RECAP AND SATURDAY PICKS

FRIDAY FLOP

It was not a great day for me on the Friday Breeders Cup Day selections. I gave you four horses each in the five races and managed to come up with only one winner, two seconds and two shows. That's just a 25% "in the money" average and will get you nothing but a trip to the ATM machine. 

Two-year-olds. So unpredictable. At Santa Anita or anywhere. Out of the $120 invested on $2 win. place and show ventures on these 20 horses, they paid a total of $92.20. If it hadn't been for BILLY BATTS second place showing in the Juvenile Turf -- ($33.40 and $18.00) it would have been much worse. I didn't touch the board in races 8 and 9 at all. 

Turn the page and move on...

Nine huge races for Saturday. Let's get at them. 

SATURDAY PICKS


RACE 4 -- FILLY & MARE SPRINT -- 7 FURLONGS --  $1 MILLION

1 -- COVFEFE
4 -- COME DANCING
6 -- BELLAFINA 
9 -- SPICED PERFECTION


RACE 5 -- TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- $ 1 MILLION

1 -- TOTALLY BOSS
2 -- PURE SENSATION
6 -- STORMY LIBERAL
7 -- LEINSTER


RACE 6 -- DIRT MILE -- 1 MILE -- $1 MILLION

2 -- IMPROBABLE
3 -- SPUN TO RUN
4 -- MR MONEY
5 -- OMAHA BEACH


RACE 7 -- FILLY & MARE TURF -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

1 -- INDESSA
2 -- SISTER CHARLIE
7 -- VASILIKA
12 -- FANNY LOGAN


RACE 8 -- SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS -- $2 MILLION

1 -- CATALINA CRUISER
4 -- MITOLE
6 -- SHANCELOT
3 -- FIRENZE FIRE


RACE 9 -- TURF MILE -- 1 MILE -- $2 MILLION

2 -- LUCULLAN
6 -- GOT STORMY
9 -- CIRCUS MAXIMUS
11 -- UNI


RACE 10 -- DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

4 -- MIDNIGHT BISOU
5 -- DUNBAR ROAD
7 -- SECRET SPICE
9 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS


RACE 11 -- TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE -- $4 MILLION 

2 -- ACCLIMATE
9 -- BRICKS AND MORTAR
10 -- OLD PERSIAN 
11 -- ARKLOW


RACE 12 -- CLASSIC -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $6 MILLION 

6 -- ELATE
8 -- MCKINZIE
10 -- VINO ROSSO
11 -- CODE OF HONOR


Good luck today and bet 'em anyway you want ! 

paulie
xxxxx










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BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY PICKS

It's "babies day" at Santa Anita for Friday Breeders Cup racing. From races 5-9, we get three turf races and two dirt. All two-year olds. Key scratches litter this card and there may be more to come but we'll give you what we got as of Friday morning and check back with us later in the day to see if there are some changes we need to make.


RACE 5 -- JUVENILE TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- GRADE II -- $1 MILLION

7 -- KIMARI
5 -- ENCODER
1 -- CHIMNEY ROCK 
3 -- ANOTHER MIRACLE


RACE 6 -- JUVENILE TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

8 -- BILLY BATTS
4 -- DECORATED INVADER
6 -- GRACEFUL KITTEN
5 -- VITALOGY


RACE 7 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

6 -- BAST
7 -- WICKED WHISPERER
2 -- TWO SIXTY
4 -- BRITISH IDIOM


RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

9 -- ALBIGNA
10 -- FAIR MAIDEN
6 -- UNFORGETTABLE
1 -- LIVING IN THE PAST


RACE 9 -- JUVENILE -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

1 -- DENNIS' MOMENT
6 -- EIGHT RINGS
5 -- SCABBARD
3 -- SHOPLIFTED


GOOD LUCK ON THE FRIDAY CARD AND PLAY 'EM ANYWAY YOU WANT !


CHECK BACK SATURDAY.


paulie
xxxxx 

Keeneland Results from 10-26-19

If there is anyone more glad than I to see the Keeneland meet end, point them out to me.

On a rainy Saturday, closing day for their Fall Meet, the Lexington track taught me yet another lesson.

I gave you (16) horses to consider for the Late Pick 4. Two got scratched, so 14 broke from the gate. Out of those, I managed two winners, two places and two shows. Six out out 14 is about 43% and nothing tp be proud of. Expect the unexpected and I should probably avoid handicapping this track in the Spring.

I was entirely off the board in the final - a MSW affair on the turf.

$2 across the board on all would have cost $84. I got back $46.

OH WELL, I move on and will have both Friday and Saturday Breeders Cup picks for you next week. Let's hope a change in venue brings a little better luck.


paulie
xxxxx