Monday, October 31, 2016

Results from Sunday Oct. 30th -- HANDICAPPING HEROES


The Handicappers went after the final four races on opening day at Churchill Downs Sunday and fared pretty well overall. Let's look at the numbers. 





SCOTT HARRIS provided 16 horses that he felt might return a payout. Of those, seven did. 44% return on the day for the Scottster. Out of those, he had two winner, three places and two shows. His Best Bet of the Day also came through in McCracken. Scott also provided an exacta in the sequence that returned $172.70 in the seventh race. On the day, give Scott 26 points





ARCHIE KAREL served up 16 horses as well. Only five of Archie's pick returned money. 31% for the Cubs fan. No winners for Arch, four seconds and a third. His Value Play of the Day did hit in the 10th. race in Clever Girl which paid $19.20. 
Archie ends up with 19 points. 





PAULIE only had 14 horses enter the gate because of a couple scratches. six of those made the tote board for a 43% in the money percentage. Paulie provided three winners, two places and a show. He had two exactas...one paying $110.20 and also the late pick three for $332.05. His jockey of the day, Brian Hernandez, Jr., also won one race in the sequence.  PAULIE bests the boys with 28 points. 


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In the total standings, Scott increased his lead over Archie 136-114. It should be noted that Paulie, serving as moderator and not participating in the overall points race...has beaten the Handicappers the last two weeks. 

Go Paulie, go Paulie...GO Paulie! 


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Some other notes of interest: 

-- Paulie's selections in races 8,9, and 10 would have cost you $24 to bet if you had put them in a 50 cent late Pick Three. Your return was $332.05. Here's the stupid part. Paulie played a 50 cent late Pick Four that cost $72. He did not include his top pick in the 10th race in the sequence...trying to save a little money. He hit the first three races, thanks to Scott's wise pick of Mythical Tale in the seventh. Unfortunately, he didn't play the Pick 3 that was in races 7-9. 

The Pick four...for 50 cents paid $8010.90. Sometimes, you just need to bite the bullet and put down the extra $24 it would have cost to include a horse, in this case. 

-- If you had combined Scott and Paulie's picks in the four race sequence, it would have been a bit pricey...$525 to be exact...but you would have won the $8010.90. That's the equivalent of putting $525 to win on a 14-1 shot...

-- The guys provided four winners for you and none of them went off lower than 6-1 odds. That's some nice handicapping. 


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Breeders Cup  is getting close! This weekend! As I have done the past several years...I'll post my picks here the day before the Friday and Saturday races. In past years, Sonya has also joined me...we'll see if we can get her to do it again. I'll also extend an offer to Scott and Archie to list their selections here as well.

We'll handicap how ever many races the guys want for Breeders Cup Saturday on our Saturday morning show that starts at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM and streaming live on the Internet at www.crescenthillradio.com. You can also go back and listen to previous broadcasts at:

LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES 10/30/16 broadcast 


paulie
xxxxx



Saturday, October 29, 2016

Selections for Opening day at Churchill Sunday 10/30/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicappers decided to take on opening day at Churchill this Sunday for today's column and radio show. A challenging card of two-year-olds..the guys are going after RACES 7-10...the late pick four. 

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TO HEAR THESE PICKS ON THE HANDICAPPING HEROES RADIO SHOW...

link: www.crescenthillradio.com

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SCOTT HARRIS starts us out:

Race 7 --  Mdn Special Weight 58k 2 yr. old fillies - 6 furlongs


(5) CASH IN has had several bullet works preparing for her debut and Brian Hernandez, Jr. teams up with Brad Cox. (3) BELLA VERDE is another first time starter who has also been working well (9)CHEVY TO THE LEVY was closing strong last time out and gets Julian Leparoux in the saddle (11) MYTHICAL TALE has also worked well at Churchill for her opener.

Selections -- 5-3-9-11


Race 8 -- Street Sense Stakes 80k 2 yr olds - 1 mile


(2) McCRACKEN won at Churchill back on Oct. 2nd. for Brian Hernandez, Jr. HE returns for Ian Wilkes. (5) SPEEDMEISTER took the victory at Keeneland for Mark Casse and Leparoux going away. Will come just off the pace. (4) GUEST SUITE is another closer who won at Keeneland and gets hot Robby Albarado. (6) SINGING BULLET ran in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity last out. Romans brings him back to a level where he might have better luck. 

Selections -- 2-5-4-6


Race 9 -- Spendthrift Stakes 300k 2 yr olds - 7 furlongs

(9) HUNKA BURNING LOVE looked sharp in a Keeneland win last out. Michael Maker switches to Florent Geroux in the saddle? (5) SOUTH SEA broke maiden at Belmont in last...William Mott stays with Joel Rosario in the stirrups. (12) COOL ARROW has back-to-back wins and Joe Sharp keeps Brian Hernandez, Jr. as the rider. (13) HOLLOW POINT ran an encouraging third here at Churchill in October against a tough field and has been working well since. 

Selections -- 9-5-12-13


Race 10 -- Mdn Special Weight 58k 2 yr. old fillies - 1 1/16 miles


(6) CLEARLY CLAIRE comes in from Keeneland and has been working very impressively at Churchill for Phillip Bauer. Corey "Mr Churchill" Lanerie rides. (1A) CUDDLE KITTEN closed well at Keeneland last time out. It's a Ramsey horse but Joe Sharp trains. Interesting. (10) DELROCK missed by a nose at Saratoga in her last and will look to go wire-to-wire on the lead against these these. (7) SUSIE'S DADDY had a third place finish against similar here at Churchill in Oct. Albarado saw enough to ride her again in this one. 


Selections -- 6-1A-10-7

SCOTT'S BEST BET OF THE DAY: (2) McCRACKEN in the 8th
SCOTT'S VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY: (3) BELLA VERDE in the 7th
SCOTT'S TOP JOCK IN THE SEQUENCE:  JULIAN LEPAROUX


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PAULIE PICKS

Race 7 

(16) SHORE THING
(9) CHEVY TO THE LEVY
(10) OH MAYBE BABY
(1) JUNO MOON

Race 8 

(5) SPEEDMEISTER
(2) McCRACKEN
(9) GENERAL OBVIOUS
(10) BALANDEEN

Race 9 

(6) ALL RIGHT
(12) COOL ARROW
(10) MENACE THE DENNIS
(4) WARRIOR CLUB

Race 10

(11) CLEVER GIRL
(6) CLEARLY CLAIRE
(1A) CUDDLE KITTEN
(1) GENTLE KITTEN. 

PAULIE'S BEST BET OF THE DAY : (6) ALL RIGHT IN THE 9TH
PAULIE'S VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY: (9) GENERAL OBVIOUS IN THE 8TH
PAULIE'S TOP JOCK IN THE SEQUENCE: BRIAN HERNANDEZ, JR


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ARCHIE KAREL PICKS

Race 7 

(5) CASH IN
(9) CHEVY TO THE LEVY
(3) BELLA VERDE
(6) DEVILISHLY SUPERIOR


Race 8 

(5) SPEEDMEISTER
(4) GUEST SUITE
(10) BALANDEEN
(6) SINGING BULLET


Race 9 

(12) COOL ARROW
(5) SOUTH SEA
(6) ALL RIGHT
(10) MENACE THE DENNIS


Race 10

(6) CLEARLY CLAIRE
(1) GENTLE KITTEN
(7) SUSIE'S DADDY
(10) DEFROCK or (11) CLEVER GIRL


Archie's Best Bet -- (5) Speedmeister in the 8th race
Archie's Value Play -- (11) Clever Girl in the 10th race
Archie's Top Jock -- Joel Rosario 


It should be a great opening day at Churchill Sunday! Stop by and say "Hi!" to us in the Gold Room if you get out there! 

paulie
xxxxx




Sunday, October 23, 2016

Results from 10/22 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicapper took on the late pick four at Keeneland yesterday and added Paulie into the mix. Bad idea...he stole their lunch and drank their beverage in a impressive win over the regulars. 

For hunch bets based on names, late entries, early morning mischief, late night telephone calls, references to the civil war, Jewish cowboys, old sit-coms and casual cocktails in a orient harbor with a New Orleans lady with cool moves...proceed to the next paragraph.. 


The bartending crew prepares for Handicapping Heroes arrival
SCOTT HARRIS (who will be limited to 14 minutes maximum hereafter) gave us 16 runners he hoped would return money. Out of those...six hit the board, for a 37.5% in the money success rate. Scott had two winner, two seconds and two thirds. No exactas or trifectas for the Portland Powerhouse. Neither his best best of the day nor his value play paid off...but his top jock of the sequence (Julian Leparoux -- and all the fellas went with Leparoux as their top jock) did win a race. GIVE SCOTT 22 points on the day. 

ARCHIE KAREL (who was limited to a scant nine minutes and whined and pouted like a kid who had just dropped his lollipop in the sand) also offered 16 horses he hoped might get financial returns. Five of the did...giving him a 31% in the money. The best any of us can hope for in these "in the money" stats is 75%...since you're making 16 picks and only 12 sports pay out in four races. Sufficiently confused yet? Good! We'll move on. Archie had one winner, two places and two shows in the four races. No exactas nor trifectas, no best bet of the day or value play success bit did have Leparoux as top jock. Give the buttered bread boy 19 points for his efforts.


When the Handicappers get together...it's usually expensive
PAULIE jumped into the fray when it looked like Archie might be on a "bye" week. ( He got his picks provided in a mere 1:48 on the show. ) Out of the sixteen he tossed the audience...six got a cashable ticket. Three wins, a place and two shows for the fireball from Fern Creek. One exacta, too...that paid an awesome $139.00 on a $1 payout. No trifectas, no best bet success but his value play (Ami's Holiday in the 8th) won at 8-1 odds and he also had Leparoux as his top jock.


PAULIE WINS THE BATTLE WITH 34 points. He also gave you 43-1 longshot winner Archanova in the seventh race. 

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Consider these angles (and I hope you had them) 


Up to no good, in many aspects...the I'll Have Another Gang. 
1)  If you had played Paulie and Scott's picks in the late pick four it would have cost you a huge total of $525. Your return, though, would have been $5871.40 (Sadly, we didn't play it together.) 

2) Paulie handed you the Pk 3 for races 7,8, and 9. I paid $32 to wager it. I got back a return of $3721.75. and that was on a 50 cent ticket...(Hello, IRS...)

3) If you had played Paulie entire selection docket ($2 WPS, $1 exactas, 50 cent trifectas, 50 cent pick threes and pick fours) would would have had to layout a total of $528. Your return would have been. $4047.55. 

In addition, Paulie handicapped the rest of the cards and woud have had the winners in races 2,3,4 and 6 using his four-horse method. 

Days like this don't come around very often...to quote Scott Harris...so appreciate and be thankful for them when they do.

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Probably the best handicapper in the room. 
In the race for the title....Scott increased his lead over Archie. The totals: Scott 110 - Archie 95. 

For  replay of the show, go to: 

LINK:  HANDICAPPING HEROES 10/22/16


paulie
xxxxx


Saturday, October 22, 2016

Selections for Saturday October 22nd -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



We're a man down today in our HANDICAPPING HEROES selections...Archie Karel taking a "bye" week...but don't you worry...ol' Paulie is going to jump in and try to take on the handicapping machine known as Scott Harris. This should be fun!

SCOTT HARRIS PICKS


RACE 7 -- 1-1/8TH MILES ALLOWANCE $62,000


Scott puts (9) Gettysburg on top...blinkers on and no Creator to deal with today. (7) December Seven is his second choice...won by six lengths last time out and will like the added distance. (6) Flash Trading gets Julian Leparoux and will be closing. (1) Battle Tap goes back to the dirt -- throw out the Kentucky Downs turf effort

Selections -- 9-7-6-1


RACE 8 -- 1-1/16TH MILES OPTIONAL CLAIMING $80,000

(4) Tale of Life has won in allowance company at Keeneland and Julian Leparoux climbs on. (3) Catholic Cowboy was in Grade I company last out...he'll find this level suits him better. (9) Financial Modeling will get out front and play "come catch me" (7) Hesinfront brings his Churchill success to Lexington with Albarado in the saddle

Selections -- 4-3-9-7


RACE 9 -- 7 FURLONGS --  RAVEN RUN (GRADE II) $250,000

(12) Lightstream has been on the board in her last six, could return to winning form today with Leparoux riding. (11) Takrees is capable of pulling the upset at a huge price -- beware. (4) Lucy N Ethyl loves the lead and is 4-4 lifetime. Corey Lanerie pilots for Tom Amoss. (8) Curlin's Approval fits in here, may get a piece.

Selections -- 12-11-4-8


RACE 10 -- 5 1/2 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE $64,000

(8) Lamontagne has filled out the exacta in 8 of her 11 starts. Include. (10) Equation has bullet works and is 2-2 lifetime. Chicago invader with Jose Valvidia riding. (11) Clairenation comes off a layoff, should be ready to go. (3) Casual Cocktail just might give Leparoux his fourth win in this sequence.

SCOTT'S BEST BET -- (4) TALE OF LIFE IN THE 8th
SCOTT's VALUE PLAY --  (11) TAKREES IN THE 9th
SCOTT'S TOP JOCK -- Julian Leparoux



////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


PAULIE gets off the bench to toss a few heaters...here we go!



RACE 7 

(9) Gettysburg
(2) Seeking Blame
(6) Flash Trading
(4) Archnova


RACE 8 

(4) Tale Of Life
(7) Hesinfront
(5) Ami's Holiday
(3) Catholic Cowboy


RACE 9 

(10) Sophia's Song
(12) Lightstream
(1) Covey Trace
(5) Southern Girl


RACE 10

(1) Orient Harbor 
(8) Lamontagne
(10) Equation
(2) New Orleans Lady



PAULIE'S BEST BET -- (9) GETTYSBURG 7th Race
PAULIE'S VALUE PLAY -- AMI'S HOLIDAY 8th Race
PAULIE'S TOP JOCK -- Julian Leparoux



ARCHIE LIKES: 


Race 7 -  7-2-9-6

Race 8 - 4-3-9-1

Race 9 -  5-8-12-10

Race 10 -  3-8-10-9
Be sure to catch the radio show today at noon at the link below: 

LINK:   HANDICAPPING HEROES


paulie
xxxxx




Friday, October 21, 2016

Bullards Alley runs third in Grade 3 Sycamore



One of the horses that the Handicapping Heroes gang likes to follow is Bullards Alley. Maybe it's because of his hard-charging running style. Maybe it's because one of his co-owners (Faron McCubbins) is a likable, down-to-earth guy and one we run into from time-to-time in the Gold Room at Churchill Downs.

The "ol' Bull" ran in Keeneland's Grade 3 Sycamore Stakes Thursday at Keeneland. He chased the early pace, never worse than fourth, made a move in the four path around the final turn, rushed up between the winner (Renown) and second place finisher (Bigger Picture)...looked to lead briefly with about a furlong to go but couldn't keep pace and finished third...about a half-length back.

It was a brave effort from Bullards Alley. Marcelino Pedroza rode him beautifully and...bet down to 8-1 odds...he actually made Paulie money on his win, place and show bet (paying $7.60 to show) and on his elaborate 50 cent trifecta...(put down $30...got back $277).

The four-year-old gelding, trained by Tim Glyshaw, has been running in stakes company since December 2015 and has a couple of wins...including the Gr. III Louisville Handicap back on May 21st. at Churchill Downs.

A "bullard" is a term for someone who herds animals...typically sheep or cows. This bullard herded in a whole lotta lettuce for Paulie Friday.

Keep an eye on "ol' Bull" in the future. It just might be the alley you're looking for.

RACE REPLAY: THE SYCAMORE...BULLARDS ALLEY IN THE SYCAMORE

paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, October 16, 2016

Results from 10/15/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES


SCOTT HARRIS had a huge day for the Handicappers...as they took on the late pick four at Keeneland Saturday. Let's look at the totals: 


SCOTT gave us 16 horses he thought had a chance at hitting the payoffs. Out of those, six made money for a 37.5% success rate. Scott had (4) winners and (2) place finishes. He also gave us two exactas. Scott nailed the pick 4 as well...which was worth $1427 on a 50 cent wager. His Best Bet of the Day scored with Rockshaw in the 10th race and his top jock of the sequence...John Velasquez got a win in the ninth race. GIVE SCOTT 38 POINTS in the picks...a clear winner in the picks. 

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ARCHIE KAREL offered 16 runners he hoped could return money. Five of those got you to the window....a 31% in-the-money ratio. He had (2) winners, a place and (2) shows. One exacta for the Arch. His best bet and value play of the day fell a little short but his top jock pick in Jose Ortiz did get a win. ARCHIE FINISHED WITH 21 POINTS. 





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PAULIE guessed on four winners. One of them did...Rockshaw in the 10th. No success in the Best Bet of the Day, value play or Top Jock.  Fortunately, he did a Pick 4 based on the Handicapper's Pick...and his $72 investment paid off quite handsomely. 


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In the cumulative points battle, Scott jumps to a 88 - 76 lead over Archie. 

To hear the replay of the show, follow the link below!

LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES 10/15/16

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Selections for October 15th -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



A shortened version of the Handicapper's Picks today because of time constraints: Be sure to catch the broadcast at noon for more details. LINK: www.crescenthillradio.com  We're playing the late pk 4 at Keeneland (7-10) Our broadcast starts at noon on WCHQ 100.9 FM

SCOTT HARRIS

7th

7 - Allied Air Raid
12 - Dubai Sky
8 - Coalport
1- Cammack

8th

3 - War Ride
4 - Conquest Big E
9 - Yockey's Warrior
7 - Squadron A

9th

7 - Time And Motion
2 - On Leave
1 - Catch A Glimpse
4 - Harmonize

10th

4 - Rockshaw
11 - Hurricane Force
5 - Bellows
9 - Dilettante

Scott's Best Bet -- Rockshaw  - 10th
Scott's Value Play -- Harmonize - 9th
Scott's Top Jock -- Johnny Velaquez


ARCHIE KAREL

7th

7 - Allied Air Raid
6 - Flatlined
8 - Coalport
12 - Dubai Sky

8th

4 - Conquest Big E
3 - War Ride
7 - Squadron A
2 - Viva Majorca

9th

2 - On Leave
7 - Time and Motion
1 - Catch A Glimpse
3 - Stays in Vegas

10th

5 - Bellows
11 - Hurricane Force
1 - Speightstime
6 - Takeoff

Archie Best Bet -- On Leave - 9th
Archie Value Play - Speightstime - 10th
Archie Top Jock -- Jose Ortiz


Paulie's Four Winners

7th - None The Less
8th - My Johnny Be Good
9th - Mokat
10th - Rockshaw

Paulie's Best Bet - - Catch A Glimpse - 9th
Paulie's Value Play -- My Johnny Be Good - 8th
Paulie's Top Jock -- Kent Desormeaux


Good Luck today!


paulie
xxxxx

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Results for 10/8/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicappers had mixed success at Keeneland in Saturday's Card...a tough card, indeed, that provided a couple of upsets but great racing! 

SCOTT HARRIS provided 16 horses he thought might hit the board. Out of those, six hit the board for a 37% in the money percentage. Scott had one winner, three seconds and two thirds. He had a huge eighth race, where he gave out the exacta and trifecta. Those combinations paid well...over $1800 on a $2 wager. His best bet (Tepin) failed to win, though, his value play Wild Shot ran third and his top jockey for the sequence Julian Leparoux had one win. 

Scott finishes with 26 points on the day...good enough to win the contest.


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ARCHIE KAREL offered 16 horses that he thought he might get paid on. Out of those, six hit the board for a 37% in the money percentage. Archie had a winner two seconds and three thirds. No exactas or trifectas for Archie. His best bet was Tepin...who ran second, his value play Nerinx faded to seventh in the final race and Julian Leparoux was his best bet in the sequence...good for one win. 

Archie finishes with 20 points on the day. 


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PAULIE offered four horses he thought could win. They didn't. His best bet was Tepin...who wasn't. Wild Shot, his value play, ran third and his top jock...Jose Ortiz didn't have a winner in the four race sequence. 


##############################################


Guest handicapper Professor Bicker dissected the eighth race to try and provide a nice payout. The "Bicker Sticker" was a  six horse rambling dialogue prediction/combination that did include the winner (Classic Empire) but nothing else. We'll probably have him back, though...it's sparkling commentary and he comes with his own background spiritual singer and bartender...


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In the race for the crown....after two weeks, Archie holds a 55 to 50 lead over Scott. 

If you missed the broadcast, you can go back and listen to the replay at the link below: 

LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES 10/8/16 BROADCAST


paulie
xxxxx







Saturday, October 8, 2016

SELECTIONS FOR 10/8/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicapper contingent packs up their forms, stat sheets and crystal ball and head east on I-64 to take on the second day of racing at historic Keeneland. A tough challenge faces them today on a very strong card. 

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NOTE! NUMBERS MAY DIFFER...ALWAYS GO BY HORSE NAME!!!!

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SCOTT HARRIS SEES IT THIS WAY: 

Race 7 -- First Lady (Grade I) 1 mile TURF $400,000

(2) Tepin is the logical choice here and should have a nice win over these with Leparoux riding. (4) Now or Never will get ignored at the windows but could be there if Tepin doesn't fire. (8) Celestine comes back after a convincing Grade I win and could fill out the exacta. (3) Cash Control has been in the top three the last seven times out and might hit the board at an attractive price. 

Race 8 -- Breeders Futurity (Grade I) 1 1/16 mile $500,000

(11) Classic Empire adds blinkers and Leparoux rides. It could be a big day for Julian. (8) Wild Shot should really like the stretch out and gets Brian Hernandez Jr on top. (12) Lookin at Lee won two at Ellis before a second in the Iroquois...it's Santana and Asmussen...beware. (7) Holiday Bonus ships in for Graham Motion and Jose Ortiz is in town to pilot...may be the one to beat. 

Race 9 -- Shadwell Turf Mile (Grade I) 1 mile TURF $1,000,000

(10) Tourist is no stranger to the winners circle and regular rider Jose Lezcano comes to town to do more than just sight-see. (4) Mondaliste won the Arlington Million...can't be overlooked. (5) Grand Arch won this race last year and Luis Saez was on board and is again today. (8) Ironicus could pull off the upset...Ortiz knows the horse. 

Race 10 -- MSW 1 1/16 mile $60,000

(9) Souper Catch should contend was a beaten favorite at Churchill by not much in last. Leparoux gets the assignment. (8) Young American has Corey Lanerie riding for Kenny McPeek...finished behind to the top pick last time out. (7) Leviathan can't be ignored and the price could be favorable with Jersey Joe Bravo piloting. (6) Birdsnest Party had a bullet work at Keeneland...they may have to catch him. 

Scott's Best Bet:  TEPIN in Race 7
Scott's Value Play: WILD SHOT in Race 8 
Scott's Top Jock : Julian Leparoux


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ARCHIE KAREL SELECTIONS: 

Race 7 

(2) Tepin
(8) Celestine
(3) Cash Control
(5) Nemoralia

Race 8 

(11) Classic Empire
(9) No Dozing
(2) Gunnevera
(1) Bitumen

Race 9 

(8) Ironicus
(10) Tourist
(5) Grand Arch
(11) What A View

Race 10

(9) Souper Catch
(1) Commandeering
(2) Nerinx
(8) Young American


Archie's Best Bet: TEPIN in Race 7
Archie's Value Play: Nerinx in Race 10 
Archie's Top Jock: Julian Leparoux

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////


Paulie gives you his four winners: 

Race 7 -- (2) Tepin
Race 8 -- (8) Wild Shot
Race 9 -- (2) Pleuven
Race 10 -- (1) Commandeering


Paulie's Best Bet: TEPIN in Race 7
Paulie's Value Play: WILD SHOT in Race 8
Paulie's Top Jock: Jose Ortiz


BE sure to listen to the broadcast today on WCHQ 100.9. You can download the WCHQ app at the website and also listen live there! LINK BELOW

www.crescenthillradio.com


paulie
xxxxx

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Churchill September Meet memorable and mystifying


Churchill Downs ended their September meet on Sunday, October 2nd...despite the paradox...it was a fun-filled meet that gave horseplayers and fans quite a few opportunities to see some of the leading jockeys and trainers in the nation. Here's Paulie's Pick-Six on the 11 days of racing.

1) Albarado grabs the riding title. Maybe a bit of a surprise...with multiple meet leading rider Corey Lanerie at the track...plus proven riders Julian Leparoux, Brian Hernandez, Jr and always dangerous Miguel Mena getting mounts. Robby had 15 wins on 81 mounts...a 18.5% winner percentage and finished in the money 51% of the time. He defeated BJ Jr. and Lanerie by three wins. 

All told, 53 jockeys had mounts in the 11 days and 26 found their way to the winners' circle. 

2) Didiel did what? Didiel Osorio isn't a guy who you think of as one of the nation's top jocks...but he did win five times in just 23 mounts. A stronger rider at Ellis Park's Summer meet, where he had the most rides and finished fifth in the jockey wins stats...he's in his fourth year of riding and has to be considered one of the up and coming "young guns" in the saddle. 

3) The tale of Dale. Dale Romans won the trainers title for the September meet...he's no stranger to that accolade...having captured that crown 14 times in his career. Not surprisingly, he used Albarado on most of his entries. You go with what works, right? 

4) We like Thirsty Thursdays.  Churchill continued the popular late post time (5 p.m.) on Thursdays and offered the beverage and food specials again. We like this feature and wouldn't mind seeing it extend to Fridays as well. It gives the working folks a chance to get out after a 9-5 shift and attendance is always good. 

5) Let 'em in. One thing I'm not a fan of his keeping the Gate 10 admission portals locked until 60 minutes before post-time on Thursdays and Downs After Dark. A lot of Churchill regulars also simulcast and to have to walk halfway around the track from the Longfield lot and Gate 10 to the simulcast entrance at Gate 17 is silly. Especially for TwinSpires cardholders. 

5) Media mediocrity. Hisses to Churchill for ignoring my requests again for a Media pass. I'm sure they have much more important things to do than review the credentials of a website editor and author but I was disappointed that I didn't even get a reply to the requests this spring and in September....Talk to me Darren Rogers.  C'mon, man....it's a shame because John Asher is such a super person. It is not in my nature to demean people. I just want equality. If it develops, I'll change my tune. We will not tire or falter in this request until we specifically get a "no way, Jose" out of them. 

6) Making it memorable. Hats off to the many tellers, wait staff, bartenders, gate attendants, security guards, support staff  and others who make each and every Churchill meet a great experience! I won't name names here...too many to mention...but you are just as big heroes to me as the horses, trainers, owners and jockeys .  Handicapping Heroes is such a fun site to run and do a weekly radio show about. Thank you for making it easy, friendly and possible.  

paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, October 2, 2016

Results from 10/1/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicappers took on the final five races at Churchill Downs Saturday and had pretty good luck with their selections. The 11th. race stumped everybody...with James Graham knocking home a 24-1 shot and Runhappy didn't run too happy in the 9th. race but the fellows made allowances in that one. Let's see how they did: 


ARCHIE KAREL had 18 of his 20 selections break from the gate...because of a couple of scratches in the 7th race...but got 10 of his picks in the money...for 56%. Give Arch four winners, two seconds and four thirds on the day. He also had a exacta and trifecta. He scores 25 points in the selections before we look at the bonus opportunities. 

-- His Best Bet of the Day did not win...in Runhappy ran fourth in the 9th.

-- His value play...Seeking the Soul...ran third in the 7th race. 

-- His top jock selection for the five races was Julian Leparoux..who did win the 10th race...so he picked up 10 points there.

ARCHIE ends with 35 total points...enough to take the day. 

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SCOTT HARRIS gave him a run for the money. Scott also had 18 of his twenty picks leave the gate and 9 of his picks hit the board for 50%. Scott had four winners, two seconds and three thirds on the day. He, too, had a exacta and trifecta. Scott scores 24 points in the selections before we take a look at the bonus plays. 

-- His Best Bet of the Day was Runhappy. Out of the money in the 9th.

-- His value play...Bondurant...got scratched in the 7th race.

-- His top jock for the sequence was Corey Lanerie. Although Corey did have a couple of winners on the day...none of them were in races 7-11...so Scott does not pick up any points here either.

SCOTT finished with 24 points. 

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PAULIE gave you five horses he thought might win yesterday. Of those, three won and one ran third....for a 75% success rate in the money. 

-- His Best Bet of the Day was Noble Bird in the 10th who won...

-- His value play was Tiz A Curve...who ran third in the 11th. 

-- His top jock was Brian Hernandez, Jr. who did win the ninth race on Tom's Ready. 

Paulie doesn't participate in the points totals...but based on just five horses selected, his best bet, value play and top jock...he would have had 30 points. 

(Although he did not get to the track because of extensive UofL sports coverage Saturday...Paulie managed to get a few things down with TwinSpires...including Tom's Ready's win ($11.80), Noble Bird's win ($7.40), a late Pick 4 at Churchill (which blew up in the 11th race) and a late Pick 4 at Santa Anita...where he turned a .50 cent late Pick 4 ticket that cost $60 into a $770.95 winner!)  

To hear the rebroadcast of HANDICAPPING HEROES, go to the link below:

LINK: HANDICAPPING HEROES REBROADCAST 10-1-16


paulie
xxxxx






Saturday, October 1, 2016

Selections for 10/1/16 -- HANDICAPPING HEROES



The Handicappers are giving you an extra race today on the Churchill Downs card...analyzing races 7-11 on this Saturday. We also have the new features of their best bet of the day, value play of the day and top jock on the card. It should be fun as we erase the point totals and let them battle it out over the next two months. 

SCOTT HARRIS has crunched the numbers and comes up with

Race 7 -- The Jefferson Cup Stakes. 3 yr olds. $100,000 1 1/8 miles 

(4) One Mean Man -- Has faced Surgical Strike twice lately...they're 1-1
(5) Bondurant -- Scott's price play. Adds Brian Hernandez, Jr. 
(7) Madtap -- One for two lifetime at Churchill. Asmussen and Santana.
(3) Surgical Strike -- Your likely favorite. Lots to like here.

Race 8 -- MSW 2 yr. olds $43,000 6 1/2 furlongs 

(10) Farrell -- Was favorite here last time out. showing signs of improvement.
(8) Scurry --  Two seconds in two lifetime outs. Graduation time? 
(6) My Bright Idea -- First timer has been working very sharp. Respect. 
(1) Blaze Star -- Second in the slop. Watch if it's wet today...

Race 9 -- ACK ACK Handicap $100,000 1 Mile

(5) Runhappy -- Scott's best bet of the day. Could go off at odds on. 
(1) Iron Fist -- Meet's leading jockey Albarado in the saddle
(3) Tom's Ready -- If he is ready...they're all running for second. 
(6) Schivarelli -- Has run second here in stakes company. Might get a price.

Race 10 -- Lucas Classic Stakes $175,000 1 1/8th Mile

(7) Bradester -- Can the front runner go wire to wire?
(3) Breaking Lucky -- Ships in from Woodbine. Jock comes with him. Watch!
(9) Bullard's Alley -- Local hero may be a step behind these but has heart.
(6) Noble Bird -- Will challenge "The Brad" for the pace. Possible? 

Race 11 -- MSW $43,000 6 furlongs 

(8) Mighty Mad -- Second time out. Ran OK at Ellis. Calvin Borel rides.
(3) Saratoga Syndicate -- May prefer turf...but has tactical speed.
(10) Missle Bomb -- Hoping he explodes over the dirt. Will be favorite? 
(1) Super Numerator-- Just moved to the Wayne Catalano barn. Clue? 

Scott's Best Bet of the Day is (5) Runhappy in the ninth. His value play is (5) Bondurant in the seventh and his top jock for the day is Corey Lanerie. 


ARCHIE KAREL SELECTIONS: 

Race 7 

(3) Surgical Strike
(4) One Mean Man
(10) Keystoneforvictory
(2) Seeking The Soul

Race 8 

(1) Blaze Star
(8) Scurry
(10) Farrell
(2) Belted

Race 9 

(5) Runhappy
(3) Tom's Ready
(1) Iron Fist
(6) Schivarelli

Race 10 

(3) Breaking Lucky
(6) Noble Bird
(7) Bradster
(2) Honorable Duty

Race 11 

(3) Saratoga Syndicate
(8) Mighty Mad
(10) Missle Bomb
(7) Tiz a Curve

Archie's best bet of the day is (5) RUNHAPPY in the ninth. His value play is (2) SEEKING THE SOUL in the seventh and his top jockey selection is JULIEN LEPAROUX. 

PAULIE PICKS

Race 7 -- (3) Surgical Strike
Race 8 -- (1) Blaze Star
Race 9 -- (3) Tom's Ready
Race 10 -- (6) Noble Bird
Race 11 -- (7) Tiz A Curve

Best Bet of the Day (3) SURGICAL STRIKE in the seventh. Value play of the day (7) TIZ A CURVE in the 11th. Top jock of the day...BRIAN HERNANDEZ, JR.
  BE sure to listen to today's broadcast at noon on WCHQ 100.9. Or on the WCHQ app. LINK FOR CRESCENT HILL RADIO: 

link: Hear the REBROADCAST HERE!