CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 9/26/20

 A beautiful day for racing at Churchill Downs yesterday,  but the results didn't turn out very well for my selections yesterday. 

Out of the final four races (7-10) on the Saturday cards, I had 16 horses for you to consider. Out of those, I had one winner, two seconds and one third. That's a 25% "in the money' percentage and way below what I normally get. Filling four out of the 12 "payable" spots wasn't much better -- producing a 33% number. 

I did hit the 7th. race -- an even money shot in Idol. After that, I did not have the 25-1 shot in Race 8, 6-1 horse in Race 9 nor the 9-2 runner in Race 10.

I guess a lot of "players" were in the same boat with me, the late Pick 4 paid $4686 on the .50 cent wager. 

Next week, the Preakness. We'll give it the old college try then.

paulie 

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 9/26/20

 A very challenging card on this final Saturday in September for Churchill Downs. Two challenging (in terms of handicapping) maiden races, a deep optional claiming affair and the Grade III Ack Ack

SELECTIONS

RACE 7 -- MAIDEN 75K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

9 -- IDOL                                                                                                                      2 -- LUCKY ASSET                                                                                                      4 -- TURNAGAIN TIDE                                                                                                7 -- EMPERADOR

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMNG 80K -- 1 MILE 

1-1A --  GOLD STANDARD/TALK VEUVE TO ME                                                      4 -- TAKE CHARGE ANGEL                                                                                        6 -- NEW ROO                                                                                                              9 -- GOODBYE EARL

RACE 9 -- ACK ACK STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- 1 MILE

8 -- EBBEN                                                                                                                  1 -- WARRIOR'S CHARGE                                                                                          9 -- BANKIT                                                                                                                  4 -- AMERICAN ANTHEM

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN 75K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

4 -- LONGPANTS REQUIRED                                                                                      5 -- FASHION MO                                                                                                        8 -- SAIL ON ELLEN                                                                                                    9 -- LEAAH CHASE

Good luck today and play 'em anyway you like! 

paulie                                                        

CHURCHILL RESULTS -- 9/19./20

 A beautiful day for racing yesterday at Churchill Downs and, although I had some successes -- I failed to take down the Late Pick Four. I provided 16 horses for yo to consider, had a couple of scratches -- so 14 actually went to post.

Out of those, I had eight finish in the money....three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That was good for a 50% "in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 12 money spots available, and I filled eight of those, the percentage goes up to 66%

Race 7 featured my top pick, Lonely Private, getting the win. He was a 2-1 favorite. I also had the exacta  (3-5) for $27.40 and the trifecta (3-5-7) for $165.60.

Race 8 was the low-light of the sequence for me. #1 Rockpaperscissors got out front and the rest couldn't run him down in the stretch .He was backed at 7-1 odds...I didn't have him.  My second pick Rookery ran second....closing at the end but falling just short. 

Race 9 belonged to my top pick Golden Curl and she won for fun on the turf at 5-2 odds. I also scored an exacta win here. I got $56.00 for the (2-7) running order. I nearly had the trifecta as well...#4 Siamese, who was sent out as the favorite lost a photo for show. That trifecta would have been sweet, it paid $481 for the (2-7-8). 

Race 10 gave us another win, when my top pick It's A Wrap hit the wire first. A even-money winner. I also got a show in Rye Humor, but couldn't come up with the second place finisher (War Detonater). 

The Late Pick 4 paid $207 for the ,50 wager. 

We'll give it a go again next week.

paulie 

CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 9/19/20

 It looks to be a great day for racing at Churchill today, with a fast track, firm turf and temperatures in the 70's. 

No major stakes races in the late Pick 4, but a very challenging card. The types of races all vary -- a claiming, maiden special weight, allowance and maiden claimer. 

RACE 7 -- CLAIMING -- 40K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

3 -- LONELY PRIVATE                                                                                      7 -- HOMBRAZO                                                                                                5 -- VICTORY BOULEVARD                                                                                4 -- HOP CAT

RACE 8 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 75K -- ONE MILE

4 -- PATTY H                                                                                                      7 -- ROOKERY                                                                                                    3 -- GOOD PENNY                                                                                              8 -- DOTTIE

RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 77K -- ONE MILE (TURF)

2 -- GOLDEN CURL                                                                                          7 -- TIPSY GAL                                                                                                6 -- SAINT STATION                                                                                        4 -- SIAMESE

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- 50K -- SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS

5 -- IT'S A WRAP                                                                                              6 -- ON YOUR MARK                                                                                        3 -- OAK ROOM                                                                                                9 -- RYE HUMOR

If scratches occur, I'll try to get back in here and update. 

Good luck and bet 'em however you like.

paulie 

KENTUCKY DOWNS RESULTS 9/12/20

 I had a good day on the turf yesterday at Kentucky Downs. I handicapped the final five races of the day, all stakes races, then didn't watch a single one of them until Sunday morning. (Football, you know.)

I hit the .50 cent Pick 5 and, in one of those pleasant rarities, I got paid twice on in. Since I wasn't watching, I didn't realize that one of my picks in Race 11 got scratched (Bound For Nowhere) so, I got the post time favorite, who won! I'll accept the $516 with no hesitation. The humor in it is that, if I had been watching, I'd substituted one of my alternate horses, who ran third, and got paid only once.  

On the day, with scratches and such, I gave you 21 horses to consider in the five races. Out of those, I had five winners, three places and four shows. That's a not too shabby 57% " in the money" percentage. When you consider there were 15 "payable" spots to fill, I filled 12 of them for an impressive 80% success rate. 

Race 7 ended with Regal Glory hitting the wire first. He was the favorite, favorites were hitting a lot in the final five races, and paid $4.80 to win  with Jose Ortiz on board. 

Race 8 was easily taken by Got Stormy. One of the best filly and mare turf sprinters running, she paid $5.80 to win and Tyler Gaffalione was on board. That 6-1/2 furlong time of 1:15:41 is very impressive. 

Race 9 was a two-horse battle between Outadore and Fauci down the turf stretch and Outadore prevailed. You got $5.60 on the win here (as the second favorite) and Irad Ortiz, Jr. got the win in the saddle. 

Race 10 featured a battle between Arklow and Zulu Alpha most of the stretch and Arklow pulled away for the win. You got a $13.60 payout for the win in Race 10 and Florent Geroux picked up the "W". 

Race 11 was a battle, but, favorite Imprimis, nosed ahead in the final yards and got to the wire first. At 2-1, you got $8.00 for the win and Irad Ortiz, Jr got his second stakes win of the day and fourth win for the card. 

The Pick 5 paid $258. If you went for the Pick 4, you were rewarded with $158 on the .50 venture.

We'll see ya next week!

paulie

KENTUCKY DOWNS SELECTIONS -- 9-12-20

 The horses don't run there often, and everything is on the turf, but the money/purses are great, the jockey colony actually stronger than what was in for Derby Week at Churchill and the races, so very challenging.

I speak, of course, of  Kentucky Downs. A track you look at, scratch your head and say..."is this really in Kentucky ?" (And, actually it's not too far from Tennessee but we wont get into that here...) European racing style.

There are five huge stakes races closing out the card today there (four of them Grade III) and almost $2 million dollars at stake, so let's look at them. There is rain predicted for that part of the state later today and the turf could go from firm to yielding or slow, so keep that in mind

RACE 7 -- KY.DOWNS LADIES TURF STAKES - G III - $200K -1 MILE

8 -- SECRET MESSAGE                                                                        6 -- REGAL GLORY                                                                              4 -- ENGLISH AFFAIR                                                                          3 -- TAP IT TODAY

if scratches occur: 7-- LADY APPLE, 1 -- MITCHELL ROAD

RACE 8 -- KY.DOWNS LADIES SPRINT - GIII-$200K - 6-1/2 F

8 -- GOT STORMY                                                                                9 -- INTO MYSTIC                                                                                7 -- CARIBA                                                                                        11 -- KIMARI

if scratches occur:  5-- CHANGE OF CONTROL, 10-- JAKARTA

RACE 9 -- KY.DOWNS JUVENILE TURF -- $500K -- 6-1/2 F

10 -- FAUCI                                                                                          9 --   OUTADORE                                                                                  4 --   COUNTRY FINAL                                                                        6 --   BODENHEIMER

if scratches occur: 2-- PERFECT MISTAKE, 8 -- COWAN

RACE 10 -- KY TURF CUP -- GIII -- $450k -- 1-1/2 MILE

10 -- ZULU ALPHA                                                                               5 --  ARKLOW                                                                                       2 --  RED KNIGHT                                                                               6 --  POSTULATION

if scratches occur: 7 -- HE'S NO LEMON, 12 -- HIERARCHY

RACE 11 -- RUNHAPPY TURF SPRINT - GIII- $700K -- 6 F

6 -- KANTHAKA                                                                                    12 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE                                                              9 -- IMPRIMIS                                                                                    2 -- STUBBINS                                                                                    

if scratches occur:10 -- RICHIESINTHEHOUSE, 14 -- FAST BOAT

Full fields, there is a .50 cent Pick 5 for the stakes races listed, so jump if you feel froggy, but -- as always, play 'em anyway you like.

paulie                                                             

 

KENTUCKY DERBY RESULTS 9-5-20

 A day of some successes at Churchill on a day where only one favorite won in 14 races. Derby Day, despite the lower attendance, sone excellent racing on the dirt and turf. 

I handicapped all 14 races (yes, I'm still brain dead from that) and gave you 56 horses to consider. Out of those, I had nine winners, eleven places and eleven shows. That was good for a 55%  "in the money" percentage. When you cpnsider there were 42 "payable" sports available...I filled 74% of them. 

Seven exactas, and three trifectas -- plus three Pick 3's. So, I'll settle for that. 

On the winners -- I got rewarded with a few nice payoffs. $18.60, $10, $11.60, $10.40 and $18.80. 

On the exactas, playing a four-horse box for $1 ($12.00)  x 14 times would have cost you $168. You would have gotten back $253. 

To take the statistics to an even further level, let's say you put $2 across the board on all 56 horses. That would have cost you $336. You would have got back $303. A -$36 effort for the day.  

I went the "rolling" Pick 3 route. At the .50 level, I had 12 wagers at $32 a wager for a total cost of $384. My return was $629.  I'll take the $245 profit for the day.

 

                                          ******************

I hope you had a good Derby. It seemed so different, not going to the annual party I've attended for the last 30+ years, at four different locations over the years--  (way too many people...traditionally... and no need to risk it with COVID out there) and just watched it with a few friends, grilled out and had a couple of "beverages".  It was OK, but I missed seeing a lot of the "regulars". Hopefully, next year.  

paulie

KENTUCKY DERBY DAY SELECTIONS

 RACE 1 

1 -- HOME BASE

5 -- HOG CREEK HUSTLE

2 -- SEVEN TRUMPETS

4 -- MIDNIGHT SANDS

RACE 2 

1 -- THRILL RIDE

7 -- KADRI

4 -- PROUD VETERAN

5 -- IDOL 

RACE 3 

6 -- PIT BOSS

1 -- STORM KING

7 -- DYNACHARGE

2 -- FASTLY

RACE 4 

11 -- RYE SENSE OF HUMOR

8 -- T MONEY

12 -- KING'S MISCHIEF

5 -- ESSENTIAL QUALITY

RACE 5 

5 -- SPANISH KINGDOM

10 -- PARKLAND

8 -- ON A SPREE

1 -- MAJESTIC RO

RACE 6 

6 -- COOL BOBBY

12 -- ALEX JOON

11 -- COWBOY'S REVENGE

2 -- SIR ALFRED JAMES

RACE 7 

9 -- AURELIUS MAXIMUS

4 -- SIGNALMAN

10 -- BODEXPRESS

12 -- LOCALLY OWNED

RACE 8 

5 -- SMOOTH LIKE STTRAIT

4 -- FIELD PASS

8 -- FANCY LIQUOR

1 -- TAISHAN

RACE 9 

2 -- ECHOTOWN

6 -- TAP IT TO WIN

9 -- RUSHIE

4 -- VERTICAL THREAT

RACE 10 

3 -- SUPER SHOT

8 -- MIDNIGHT BOURBON

7 -- PICO D'ORO

10 -- THERIDEOFALIFETIME

RACE 11

4 -- NEWSPAPEROFRECORD

7 -- LA SIGNARE

2 -- DADDY IS A LEGEND

3 -- JULIET FOXTROT

RACE 12 

8 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS

10 -- CECE

9 -- BELLAFINA

4 -- BELL'S THE ONE

RACE 13 

1 -- FACTOR THIS

9 -- SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN

3 -- ROCK EMPEROR

6 -- MR DUMAS

RACE 14 -- THE KENTUCKY DERBY

17 -- TIZTHELAW

18 -- AUTHENTIC

16 -- HONOR AP

8 -- SOUTH BEND

Note:  If further scratches occur, I'll be back in to update and change the selections. 

Bet 'em any way you like! 

Good luck,

paulie

OAKS RESULTS -- 9-4-20

 It was a great day of handicapping yesterday on the Oaks Day selections!

Out of the 13 races, I had 12 winners. Only the second race messed me up, when a 12-1 shot slipped by my choices to get the win 

I handicapped all 13 races and gave you 52 horses to consider. Out of those I had 12 winners, 11 places and 10 shows. That's a 64% "in the money" percentage. Out of the 39 possible payout spots (win, place or show) I filled 33 of them for a sparkling 85% success rate.  I had nine Pick 3's, three Pick 4's and hit the final 11 races. I also gave you 10 exactas and eight trifectas.

If you didn't make money yesterday on Paulie Picks, you have no one to blame but yourself.  

BE sure to check back later today for my Derby picks!

paulie

OAKS SELECTIONS -- 9-4-20

 OAKS SELECTIONS

RACE 1 

1 -- SOVEREIGN APPEAL

4 -- SAINT STATION

7 -- NORMA JEAN B

5 -- FINANCIAL ONE

RACE 2 

7 -- QUICK MUNNY

2 -- MALIBU BIRD

4 -- SIANARA

9 -- AMUSING ANTICS

RACE 3 

2 -- JEWELED PRINCESS

3 -- SARA SEA

1 -- HIGH REGARD

4 -- POSITIVE SPIRIT

RACE 4 

6 -- OCEAN BREEZE

3 -- MISS T TOO

1 -- SHE CAN'T SING

8 -- PALOMITA

RACE 5 

11 -- HONORIFIQUE

1 -- FRONT STREET

8 -- TRAVEL COLUMN

6 -- PRINCESS LEA

RACE 6 

5 -- HONEST MISCHIEF

8 -- STRIKE THAT

3 -- MUCHO

7 -- LASTING LEGACY

RACE 7 

6 -- FLABBERGASTED

7 -- I HEAR YOU

9 -- ELLA BRILLA

8 -- SICILIA

RACE 8 

1 -- MUNDAYE CALL 

7 -- FOUR GRACES

5 -- SCONSIN

2 -- NEVER FORGET

RACE 9 

3 -- SHARING

2 -- HENDY WOODS

1 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS

8 -- WALK IN MARRAKESH

RACE 10 

2 -- MCKINZIE

8 -- BY MY STANDARDS

5 -- MR. FREEZE

1 -- SILVER DUST

RACE 11 

8 -- MONOMOY GIRL

7 -- LADY KATE

1 -- HOROLOGIST

6 -- SHE'S A JULIE

RACE 12 == KENTUCKY OAKS

5 -- GAMINE

1 -- SWISS SKYDIVER

4 -- SPEECH

7 -- SHEDARESTHEDEVIL

RACE 13

4 -- BOUND FOR NOWHERE (SCR)

1 -- DIAMOND OOPS

13 -- TIGER BLOOD(SCR)

2 -- WELLABLED

10 -- CAROTARI

8 -- JUST MIGHT

14 -- CHIF CICATRIZ

Good luck today and play'em however you like! 

paulie

CHURCHILL RESULTS FROM 9-3-20

 It was a good day yesterday figuring out the final four races at Churchill Downs.

I gave you 20 horses to consider in Races 8-11, after adjustments for scratches. Out of those, I had fpur winners, four seconds and four thirds. That's a 60% "in the money" percentage and, more importantly, I fill all 12 of the "payable" spots in the four race sequence. I had the Pick 4, which returned a nice $648.55 on the .50 cent wager. 

Race 8 had Crafty Lady surviving an objection to get the win, She beat the favorite and paid $9.80.

Race 9 had part of the entry, Rubus, hitting the wire first and we were handsomely rewarded with a $13.40 payout. Another favorite goes by the wayside...

Race 10, the Pocahontas Stakes, featured a stellar bunch of two-year-olds and it was Girl Daddy knocking off huge favoeite Crazy Beautiful to take the race. I got $8.60 on this one to win.

Race 11 brought another downing of a favorite when Iadanza turned back big favorite The Angry Man to close the card. $13.00 to win was the reward.

It's nice to go into Oaks on a hot streak. I'll have the full card for Oaks Day handicapped and here at the site later today.

paulie 

 

CHURCHILL RESULTS FROM 9-2-20 AND THURSDAY SELECTIONS

 Another crazy day at the Downs yesterday during Derby Week. No favorites hit the wire in the final four races of the day for the second straight day.

Unsure of scratches and such yesterday, I outlined quite a few horses who might have a shot. As it turns out, 22 of my suggestion horses ran in the four races. 

For the second straight day, I fell short of hitting the late Pick 4 -- a Pick 4 that paid $7178 on the .50 cent wager! 

I had three winners, three seconds and four thirds. A 45% "in the money" percentage. I filled 10 of the 12 possible payout spots, for a 83% rate.

Wednesday's card had a $14.40 payout to win in Race Seven and I had that in Ain't No Elmers. 

In Race Eight, the payout was $21.60 to win and that's the race I didn't have a winner.

Race 9 saw Ambassador Luna get the "W", I had him and the payout was $17.00 on a $2 win wager.

In the final, Race 10, Prioritizer finished first, I had him recommended, and he returned $23.40 to win.

Thursday's Selections 

(Be advised the track conditions are sloppy (AS OF 11:30) and the turf races have been moved to the dirt. Scratches are heavy in Race 8 and 11, accordingly) We'll see if things dry out on the dirt, they did yesterday, but the rain was more substantial than yesterday. 

RACE 8 -- OPENING VERSE STAKES -- $115K -- 1 MILE (OFF TURF)

1 -- CAPTIVATING MOON

7 -- CULLAM ROAD

2 -- RENAISSANCE FROLIC

3 -- CRAFTY DADDY

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 62K -- SIX FURLONGS

2 -- EXPLORER

8 -- STRAIGHT SHOT

5 -- TOUGH LOVE

6 -- RAGTIME BLUES

( IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER #1A RUBUS and #CANDY CORNELL) 

RACE 10 -- POCAHONTAS STAKES -- GRADE I -- 200K -- 1 MILE

6 -- CRAZY BEAUTIFUL

1 -- FABRICATE

10 - INJECT

9 -- ALEXANDRIA

( IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER #11 GIRL DADDY, #12 MANIA)

RACE 11 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 97K -- 1 MILE (OFF TURF) 

7 -- THE ANGRY MAN

13 -- EEL POINT

9 -- CAPT MAESTRI

6 -- IADANZA

Good luck today!

PAULIE

paulie 

CHURCHIIL RESULTS FROM 9-1-20 and WEDNESDAY SELECTIONS

 It was a rough way to start the meet at the Twin Spires yesterday. I looked at the final four races of the day and tried to come up with a Pick 4 strategy but didn't get there. 

I gave you 16 horses to consider and couldn't get a winner. I did have three seconds and four thirds -- that 43% "in the money" isn't horrible and I did fill seven of the 12 "payable" slots but Churchill was imitating Saratoga yesterday as the graveyard of favorites. When you consider that a 7/2, 18-1, 12-1 and 4-1 took the last four races, the Pick 4 paid a whopping $5474.50 and that's an indication that things could be crazy this week. 

WEDNESDAY SELECTIONS

RACE 7 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 62.5K -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- LADY OF LUXURY

4 -- CLUE CAR

1a -- PERFECT HAPPINESS

3 -- DIAMOND CRAZY

(IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER: #2 A THOUSAND REASONS AND #5 AIN'T NO ELMERS)

RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K -- 1 MILE

8 -- BORRACHO

7 -- THRISTFORLIFE

3 -- LORD DRAGON

2 -- EASY SHOT

(IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER: #5 MY SIXTH SENSE AND #10 TWO THIRTY FIVE) 

RACE 9 -- UNBRIDLED SIDNEY STAKES -- 150K -- (OFF TURF --5-1/2 FURLONGS)

7 -- BREAK EVEN

3 -- AMBASSADOR LUNA

10 -- JO JO AIR

8 -- CHANGE OF CONTROL

(IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER #5 TOMLIN)

RACE 10 -- MAIDEN CLLAIMING -- 32K -- SIX FURLONGS

5 -- FAST CASH

6 -- BELFAST BOY

1 -- WINGING WAYS

11 -- SAG HARBOR 

(IF MORE SCRATCHES OCCUR, CONSIDER #12 COMPANY CLOWN, #3 WE'RE STILL HERE and #2 PRIORITIZER) 

Good luck today!

paulie

CHURCHILL SELECTIONS FOR 9/1/20

 And so begins the start of the Churchill meet and Derby Week racing. I've looked at the final four races on the card today, the late Pick 4 (races 6-9) and have my selections for you.

Note: These could change with scratches, obviously, and if they pull things off the turf in Race 8, so check back for any changes. 

RACE 6 -- CLAIMING 8K -- SIX FURLONGS

8 -- SHARP ART

2 -- EL ASSESINO

5 -- KNIGHT DISRUPTER

1 -- SNAGGLETOOTH

RACE 7 -- CLAIMING 10K --  1-1/16TH MILE

8 -- PROMPT

9 -- HARVEY WALLBANGER

4 -- STREET TO INDY

1 -- CHARLIE'SARCHANGEL

RACE 9 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING  62K -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)

2 -- FREEDOM'S FLIGHT (scratched)

3 -- BIG BEAUTIFUL WALL

4 -- TIZARUNNER

6 -- HAY DAKOTA

8 -- KAZIRANSA

RACE 10 -- CLAIMING 20K -- SIX AND ONE HALF FURLONGS

2 -- DUNK

1 -- SUBLIMINALCRIMINAL

10 -- DIGITAL STAR

3 -- CRITIC

i'll try the Late Pick 4 with my top four picks in each race for a outlay of $128.

Good luck today, and we'll see you tomorrow with the recap and Wednesday picks.

paulie