\September brings the brief but very exciting meet at Kentucky Downs. Turf racing, full fields and some potentially high returns on investments.
I'm going for the Late Pick 4. This sequence is Races 7-10. Four nice stakes races. As always, bet 'em however you feel.
3 -- Stave
9 -- Limari
10 -- Smart Emma
7 -- Hanalel Moon
1 -- Snapper Sinclair
4 -- Hembree
6 -- Siem Rep
9 -- Mr Cub
4 -- Lil Miss Hot
6 -- Weekend Fun
10 -- Sunset Promise
12 -- Fly So Pretty
1 -- Memorable
4 -- Night Train
9 -- Our Country
12 -- Peace Achieved
Good luck and here's hoping your tickets go to the window and not the floor !!!
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Sunday, August 25, 2019
Not a great start at all in my early handicapping on Saratoga Travers Day.
Let's face it, I was out of the Pick 5 after the first leg of the sequence. It got better, though
I gave you Memories of Peter in the 1st race as a long-shot special. He ran well -- just off the lead -- for the entire race, but came in fourth after a three-way photo for place.
Place and show runners in Race 7, effectively killing the Pick 5,
The "whenever I don't bet John Velasquez, he wins" curse continued in the eighth race with a second place finish,
Then, it picked up a bit. Both runners I selected in race 9 ( Midnight Bisou and Elate) ran first and second. Race 10 we continued to improve with the exacta, trifecta and superfecta when three of my four picks finished in the money and my fourth pick ran fourth.
We also had the Travers nailed down (Race 11) with the exacta and trifecta when it finished Code of Honor, Tacitus and Mucho Gusto.
So, I put out 17 horses in all yesterday that I thought might hit the board.
I had three winners, five seconds and three thirds -- which is 65% of horses selected that hit the board. The trifectas paid OK ($59.50 and $36). The Pick Three for races 9-11 was so-so at $63.50. It got a little better for Races 10-12 ($97.75).
To slightly alter my theory of it takes money to make money, let's say yesterday was more like "it takes money to lose money". I invested $242 and got back $161.25. Ouch...
If I'd stuck with just Pick Threes, the outlay would have been $138 (on the $1 variety) and a return of the $161.25 mentioned above. Sometimes, it's how you bet them.
Saturday, August 24, 2019
It's going to be a great day of racing today at Saratoga on this Travers Day!
I'm swinging for the fences, re-investing some of the money I've made up there this summer, in the Late Pick 5 . Starting in Race 7, there are four Grade I and one Grade II races in this sequence.
Here's how I'm playing the .50 cent Pick 5 sequence. As always, use my picks anyway you want, and since this was posted around 9 a.m. Saturday morning...there might well be scratches...but the weather forecast is 0% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-seventies.
Here we go!
RACE 7 -- H. Allen Jerkins Stakes GI
1 -- Shancelot
4 -- Borracho
9 -- Hog Creek Hustle
RACE 8 -- Balliston Spa Stakes GII
2 -- Fifty Five
3 -- Secret Message
5 -- Indian Blessing
RACE 9 -- Personal Ensign Stakes GI
1 -- Midnight Bisou
4 -- Elate
RACE 10 -- Sword Dancer Stakes GI
4 -- Channel Cat
7 -- Annals of Time
8 -- Channel Maker
9 -- Sadler's Joy
RACE 11 -- The Travers Stakes GI
2 -- Code of Honor
6 -- Tacitus
7 -- Mucho Gusto
12 -- Tax
My .50 wager for the sequence costs $144, but remember our adages here..., (1) don't be afraid to spend money to make money and (2) coverage is important.
Once again, play 'em anyway you like and the picks are in Post Position order, not in top pick order. I've highlighted my favorite in each race.
<><><><><><><><><><><> LONGSHOT ON TODAY'S CARD<><><><><><><><><><>
RACE 1 -- #4 Memories of Peter
(I'm hearing good things about the recent claim of Memories of Peter. He shortens up today in distance and the change in jockeys (to turf speed jock Kendrick Carmouche) should really benefit his early, take the lead, running style.
He got bumped coming out of the gate last time out...in the West Point Stakes at Saratoga and lost all chance of winning after that. He drops back to optional claiming today and should have a much easier go of it .
I think he'll get the lead easily and hang on. but, in case he doesn't, I'm going with a win, place, show wager. He could be a gift at morning line 12-1 odds !!
Good Luck and Have fun!
Saturday, August 10, 2019
How often is it that you hit a Pick 5 but lose money in the process? When favorites win, when nothing pays better than 5/2 odds in the five race sequence -- it'll happen. We wagered $120 and hit it but it paid $110.
Sure, it's better than throwing the ticket away. As the late Scotty Harris used to say, we can pick winners but we can't pick our prices.
Great racing up in Chi-Town this Saturday with Arlington Million Day. Good and full fields and some excellent trainers and jocks make the trip to the city of my Cubbies.
I've looked at the late Pick 5 and come up with a playable ticket. Based on my huge success last month at Saratoga, I'm going a "little deep in the water"...but, remember, don't be afraid to spend a little extra to potentially make a lot.
The Late Pick 5 starts in race eight:
RACE 8 -- THE BRUCE D
7 - BIG DRINK OF WATER
9 - MANNY WAH
10 - LEXITONIAN
11 - DABO Won. $6.40 on a $2 win ticket
RACE 9 -- THE BEVERLY D
1 - FLEETING
3 - COMPTITION
6 - MAGIC WAND
7 - SISTERCHARLIE Won. $2.80 on a $2 win ticket
RACE 10 -- THE SECRETARIAT
2 - VAN BEETHOVEN
3 - NEVER NO MORE
6 - FOG OF WAR
7 - VALID POINT Won. $7.20 on a $2 win ticket
9 - CRAFTY DADDY
RACE 11 -- ARLINGTON MILLION
3 - BRICKS AND MORTAR Won. $3 on a $2 win ticket
RACE 12 -- PUCKER UP
8 - PRINCESS CAROLINE
9 - WINTER SUNSET
11 - CAFE AMERICANO Won. $7.40 on a $2 win ticket.
There you have it...a $120 ticket based on the .50 cent Pick 5 sequence. Bricks and Mortar may be the best horse on the entire card, with four straight Grade I or Grade II wins, so I chose him as a single in the Arlington Million.
Good luck !