She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Sunday, November 3, 2019

SATURDAY BREEDERS CUP RECAP


It was a good day playing the Breeders Cup Saturday card for me yesterday at Santa Anita. Out of the nine races, I had seven winners, seven seconds and three thirds. That's a 47% "in the money" percentage and that's not bad. 

I went after the races two different ways. First off, the usual $2 across the board on four runners per pace. That turned out to be $216 spent and $211 collected, so that was a bit of just exchanging money. 

The real success was in the Pick 4's. I played three of of the 50 cent variety...each one costing $128.

 The first one, from races 4 through 7 was an "almost". I hit three out of the four races but race five was my downfall -- no winner there. That was a $128 loss.

Next, I went after races 6-9. That was the bonanza ! The $128 wagered turned into a $1156 payout, 

I spent that same $128 for a late Pick 4 covering races 9 through 12. Not so good there, with just three out of four races putting me in the winners circle. Another $128 loss. The total Pick 4 profit, however, was great, $772 to the good. 

********************************************************************************************************

I also got some great news Saturday morning. I had entered a "syndicate" late Pick 4 for Friday with five other people. We each tossed in $100. I gave some suggestions but didn't know the final horses that were bet. 

It was pretty much "drop off the money and make wise choices, fellas" kind of situation. Didn't even go into the track (because I've been "banned" by Churchill from going to "certain places"... long story there I'd prefer not to go into). Actually met a syndicate member in the lot and handed the $100 to him. We were both wearing grey raincoats and...just kidding !! 

(Note to Churchill -- I don't miss you. On-line works just fine for me.)  I know you're monitoring this website and my Facebook posts, also. Knock yourself out... 

That $600 turned into $18171 !!  After a tip to the teller, each syndicate member got back $3000 for their $100 invested !

I got the call Friday night about the win, but it went to voice mail and I didn't realize it or listen to the message until early Saturday. I figured we were beaten when a 45-1 shot won the final race in the sequence. Turns out, the group included the horse ! 

So, naturally...I stayed with the group for the late pick 4 on Saturday. Somehow, in Race 10, we failed to include 8-1 Blue Prize with Joe Bravo on board, so we got beaten there. I'm just as much to blame as anyone in the syndicate, I didn't suggest the runner. None of us did. We ran second, third, fourth, fifth and last in the tenth race. 

Toss in a 45-1 one day and leave out a 8-1 the next day. Yep, that's horse racing. . 


*********************************************************************************

We'll look at Churchill next Saturday. From afar, of course. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, November 2, 2019

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY RECAP AND SATURDAY PICKS

FRIDAY FLOP

It was not a great day for me on the Friday Breeders Cup Day selections. I gave you four horses each in the five races and managed to come up with only one winner, two seconds and two shows. That's just a 25% "in the money" average and will get you nothing but a trip to the ATM machine. 

Two-year-olds. So unpredictable. At Santa Anita or anywhere. Out of the $120 invested on $2 win. place and show ventures on these 20 horses, they paid a total of $92.20. If it hadn't been for BILLY BATTS second place showing in the Juvenile Turf -- ($33.40 and $18.00) it would have been much worse. I didn't touch the board in races 8 and 9 at all. 

Turn the page and move on...

Nine huge races for Saturday. Let's get at them. 

SATURDAY PICKS


RACE 4 -- FILLY & MARE SPRINT -- 7 FURLONGS --  $1 MILLION

1 -- COVFEFE
4 -- COME DANCING
6 -- BELLAFINA 
9 -- SPICED PERFECTION


RACE 5 -- TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- $ 1 MILLION

1 -- TOTALLY BOSS
2 -- PURE SENSATION
6 -- STORMY LIBERAL
7 -- LEINSTER


RACE 6 -- DIRT MILE -- 1 MILE -- $1 MILLION

2 -- IMPROBABLE
3 -- SPUN TO RUN
4 -- MR MONEY
5 -- OMAHA BEACH


RACE 7 -- FILLY & MARE TURF -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

1 -- INDESSA
2 -- SISTER CHARLIE
7 -- VASILIKA
12 -- FANNY LOGAN


RACE 8 -- SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS -- $2 MILLION

1 -- CATALINA CRUISER
4 -- MITOLE
6 -- SHANCELOT
3 -- FIRENZE FIRE


RACE 9 -- TURF MILE -- 1 MILE -- $2 MILLION

2 -- LUCULLAN
6 -- GOT STORMY
9 -- CIRCUS MAXIMUS
11 -- UNI


RACE 10 -- DISTAFF -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- $2 MILLION

4 -- MIDNIGHT BISOU
5 -- DUNBAR ROAD
7 -- SECRET SPICE
9 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS


RACE 11 -- TURF -- 1-1/2 MILE -- $4 MILLION 

2 -- ACCLIMATE
9 -- BRICKS AND MORTAR
10 -- OLD PERSIAN 
11 -- ARKLOW


RACE 12 -- CLASSIC -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- $6 MILLION 

6 -- ELATE
8 -- MCKINZIE
10 -- VINO ROSSO
11 -- CODE OF HONOR


Good luck today and bet 'em anyway you want ! 

paulie
xxxxx










-

Friday, November 1, 2019

BREEDERS CUP FRIDAY PICKS


It's "babies day" at Santa Anita for Friday Breeders Cup racing. From races 5-9, we get three turf races and two dirt. All two-year olds. Key scratches litter this card and there may be more to come but we'll give you what we got as of Friday morning and check back with us later in the day to see if there are some changes we need to make.


RACE 5 -- JUVENILE TURF SPRINT -- 5 FURLONGS -- GRADE II -- $1 MILLION

7 -- KIMARI
5 -- ENCODER
1 -- CHIMNEY ROCK 
3 -- ANOTHER MIRACLE


RACE 6 -- JUVENILE TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

8 -- BILLY BATTS
4 -- DECORATED INVADER
6 -- GRACEFUL KITTEN
5 -- VITALOGY


RACE 7 -- JUVENILE FILLIES -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

6 -- BAST
7 -- WICKED WHISPERER
2 -- TWO SIXTY
4 -- BRITISH IDIOM


RACE 8 -- JUVENILE FILLIES TURF -- 1 MILE -- GRADE I -- $1 MILLION

9 -- ALBIGNA
10 -- FAIR MAIDEN
6 -- UNFORGETTABLE
1 -- LIVING IN THE PAST


RACE 9 -- JUVENILE -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- GRADE I -- $2 MILLION

1 -- DENNIS' MOMENT
6 -- EIGHT RINGS
5 -- SCABBARD
3 -- SHOPLIFTED


GOOD LUCK ON THE FRIDAY CARD AND PLAY 'EM ANYWAY YOU WANT !


CHECK BACK SATURDAY.


paulie
xxxxx 

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Keeneland Results from 10-26-19


If there is anyone more glad than I to see the Keeneland meet end, point them out to me.

On a rainy Saturday, closing day for their Fall Meet, the Lexington track taught me yet another lesson.

I gave you (16) horses to consider for the Late Pick 4. Two got scratched, so 14 broke from the gate. Out of those, I managed two winners, two places and two shows. Six out out 14 is about 43% and nothing tp be proud of. Expect the unexpected and I should probably avoid handicapping this track in the Spring.

I was entirely off the board in the final - a MSW affair on the turf.

$2 across the board on all would have cost $84. I got back $46.

OH WELL, I move on and will have both Friday and Saturday Breeders Cup picks for you next week. Let's hope a change in venue brings a little better luck.


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, October 26, 2019

KEENELAND PICKS 10-26 -- LATE PICK 4


Back at it today for what looks to be a very wet day for Saturday racing at Keeneland. The card is solid with one stakes race (Fayette), two allowance races and a maiden special weight through Races 7-10. Let's hope we have a little luck in our picks. 

It's Closing Day at Keeneland and also the first half of the "Lexington Doubleheader" -- with UK Football hosting Missouri following racing. Gonna be a lot of wet and high spirited people in Lexington this Saturday...

Here we go...


RACE 7 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- ALLOWANCE 75K 

2 -- LAYLA MOOR
3 -- COCO CHANEL
4 -- DELTA KINGDOM
7 -- WITH DIGNITY


RACE 8 -- 7 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE 73K

2 -- BOTERO 
1 -- DIZZY SIGHT
7 -- OFF THE RECORD
8 -- HOLLY BLAME


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8th MILE -- FAYETTE -- 200K

3 -- TOM'S D'ETAT
8 -- BAL HARBOR
5 -- MOCITO ROJO
2 -- MR FREEZE 


RACE 10 -- 1-1/8th MILE (TURF) -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 71K

4 -- CARDIAC KID
11 -- SUGGESTED
8 -- SUMMER PALACE
3 -- BLANKET OF ROSES

Good luck on today's card! Play 'em however you like. 


paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, October 20, 2019

Keeneland Results -- 10/19/19

Sometimes, despite all the handicapping, analysis work and searching for trends...the horses fail to agree with your research. 

Such was the day yesterday at Keeneland. The "shots" were finding success in the late Pick 4 sequence and that's not a good thing when you're not playing them. 5-1, 18-1, 13-1 and 24-1. I won't belabor this any further. 

I gave you (16) horses to consider. Out of them, I managed three "seconds" and one "third"..  That's a pretty woeful 25% "in the money". 

That $96 I put down for $2 WPS on all 16 returned a paltry $30. 

There are going to be days like Saturday. As a handicapper, you shake it off, go back and look for any type of trend in the winners...but there was nothing. Speed won, closers won, different post positions won and four different trainers/jockey combinations won. 

A day at the races.. Keeneland being Keeneland.  Move on. 


paulie
xxxxx . 











Saturday, October 19, 2019

KEENELAND PICKS 10/19/19 -- LATE PICK 4


After a week off FROM HANDICAPPING last week to watch a little pigskin on the road, i'm back and ready to tackle a very difficult late Pick 4 at Keeneland today.


RACE 7 -- MAIDEN 71K -- 6 FURLONGS


1 -- HIGH HOLY
7 -- GOLD STREET
10 -- MR. MONOMOY
3 -- HANSENS MISCHIEF


RACE 8 -- ALLOWANCE 77 K -- 1-1/16 MILES  (TURF)


11 - PERU
12 - KALLIA
8 -- BOXWOOD
7 -- PHANTOM OPENING


RACE 9 -- RAVEN RUN (G II) 250K -- 7 FURLONGS


6 -- RESTLESS RIDER
1 -- ROYAL CHARLOTTE
3 -- INDIAN PRIDE
11 -- IRISH MISCHIEF


RACE 10 -- ALLOWANCE 73K -- 5 1/2 FURLONGS  (TURF)


10 -- UNCAPPED
5 -- SAYYAAF
4 -- FOOCH
6 -- JOYFUL HEART


Good luck on today's card and bet 'em anyway you want !!


paulie
xxxxx

Sunday, October 6, 2019

KEENELAND RESULTS FROM 10/5/19


A pretty good day at my attempts to pick winners at Keeneland. The 10th race blew up completely on me, though...I even went five deep trying to snag the late Pick 4 and couldn't even get a horse in the money.

Buzz kill. 

I did have three winners in the sequence though, two seconds and a third. I provided seventeen runners to consider, six "hit the board" for a "in the money" percentage of 37.5% which is a little lower than I usually come up with, 

A $2 win, place and show wager total of $102 on all 17 brought back $82, so we dropped $20 on that venture. A $1 exacta box on my picks in the four race sequence cost $56 and returned $54, 

I got saved in the ninth race, though...with a .50 cent pick three that covered races seven through nine...which cost $32 and returned $89..

So a $135 lesson. I can't understand how I misjudged a $1 million turf race so badly...but, apparently...based on the payouts...a lot of people were on that wrong barge with me.  

That darn tenth race. It blew the tote board up. A 8-1 winner and higher odds than that in second and third. 

We move on with the gentle reminder that, despite our best intentions, we can't always win every race.  


*******************************************************************************************************


I'll be back in two weeks. A little sortie with the wife will have me out of the loop for a couple of days...in terms of handicapping and such. Given the way the results have come out in the first two days of the Keeneland meet, maybe that's not a bad thing !!


paulie
xxxxx


Saturday, October 5, 2019

KEENELAND 10/5/19 PICKS


The second day of racing at Keeneland's Fall Meet has a very enticing Pick 4 sequence which starts in the seventh race and has three Grade I and one Grade II races , so that is where I'll go today. 

RACE 7 -- SIX FURLONGS -- TCA -- GRADE II -- 250K

1 -- OURS TO RUN
3 -- SPICED PERFECTION
7 -- TALK VEUVE TO ME
8 -- CHALON


RACE 8 -- ONE MILE (TURF) -- FIRST LADY -- GRADE I -- 400K

3 -- JULIET FOXTROT
6 -- VASILIKA
4 -- UNI
11 -- RUSHING FALL


RACE 9 -- ONE AND ONE SIXTEENTH MILE -- BREEDERS FUTURITY -- GRADE I -- 500K 

1 -- TAP IT TO WIN
6 -- MAXFIELD
8 -- AJAAWEED
10 -- GOUVERNEUR MORRIS


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE (TURF) -HADWELL -- GRADE I -- 1 MILLION DOLLARS

3 -- BANDUA
4 -- VALID POINT
6 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE
11 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH  
13 -- DIVISIDERO 


(Note -- I'll probably go five deep in the final, depending on how the day goes early. So many great runners in the $1 million Shadwell.)

Play 'em however you like. We had success at Churchill with the $2 WPS wager on the runners -- $24 per race -- except for the final...a $30 wager.  It's a safe way to play. Today also might be a good day to play a $2 EXACTA box with the selected runners. A investment of $24 a race with four selections and $40 with five.  

Good luck and, remember...it takes money to make money


paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, September 29, 2019

SATURDAY RESULTS FROM 9/28/19

Saturday wasn't exactly what I wanted, as far as results went, I did not hit the Late Pick 4, but there were some successes.
.
Out of the 16 runners I had in Races 8-11...I had (2) winners, (3) second places and (3) shows.
A 50% "in the money" percentage. A $2 across the board wager on all was a $96 investment. It returned $98.60 so a small profit there. We did catch a 9-1 and 5-1 on top in our wins, so that was pretty cool.

We'll close the book on the .Twin Spires now until November and head east on I-64 to see what Keeneland has to offer


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, September 28, 2019

CLOSING NIGHT AT CHURCHILL PICKS 9-28-19


11 races on the closing night of the September meeting at Churchill. A TOUGH LATE PICK 4 SEQUENCE...no doubt about it...but we'll go after it and see how we do. 

RACE 8 -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) -- JEFFERSON CUP --$125K

6 -- TRACKSMITH
4 -- MICK'S STAR
5 -- FARAWAY KITTEN
1 -- SCARS ARE COOL


RACE 9 -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- LUKAS CLASSIC GIII -- $250K

8 -- KUKULKAN
10 -- MOCITO ROJO
4 -- QUIP
7 -- PIONEER SPIRIT


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE -- OPT. CLAIMING -- $34K

9 -- PATTI PATTI PATTI
6 -- KIMBERLY DREAM
8 -- DARLIN ROSE
4 -- COLORIN COLONEL


RACE 11 -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS -- CLAIMING -- $20K

5 -- JIMMY JOE
9 -- LONTANI
11 -- GRADE
6 -- ALL AROUND 
12 -- ADMIRAL BROWN

(YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED I GAVE YOU FIVE PICKS IN RACE 11. I'M  "GOING THE 
EXTRA MILE" HERE...SINCE IT IS THE FINAL RACE ON THE FINAL NIGHT, THESE
ARE PRETTY CHEAP CLAIMERS AND ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.) I MAY ROLL THE DICE ON THE SUPER HIGH FIVE, 

TOTAL OUTLAY IF YOU PLAY THE PICK 4 IS $160. SINCE I AM "WAY UP" ON THE
TRACK FOR THE SEPT. MEET, I DON'T MIND GOING THE EXTRA $32 TO SEE IF I
CAN TAKE DOWN THE PICK 4. 

PLAY 'EM HOWEVER YOU LIKE, THOUGH, AND REMEMBER WHAT I SAY: 

IT TAKES MONEY TO MAKE MONEY.

paulie
xxxxx

Sunday, September 22, 2019

SATURDAY 9-21-19 RESULTS FROM CHURCHILL


I tackled the late Pick 4 at Churchill Saturday and hit it. Because of a couple scratches in the last race, the cost dropped in half to play it ($64). It returned $166.95, on the 50 cent wager,  so that was a profitable play with abut a $100 profit. . 

Our tout on Blunt Force in the second race turned out O.K. as well. Although the Paul McGee runner didn't win, Ol' Blunt ran a strong second, surrendering the lead in the final 1/16th after forging to the lead in the stretch. The $2 pay out was $5.40 to place and $2.20 to show...so, for every $6 invested on a win, price and show bet -- you got a profit of $1.60 back. I ventured $20 to win, $30 to place and $50 to show and thought for a moment I was going to sweep the whole mutual return. I gladly accepted the $40 profit. We'll keep an eye on this runner. 

On the late Pick 4 sequence, the numbers: 

Out of the 14 runners we chose that broke from the gate in the four races, I scored four winners, two places and one show. A 50% "in the money" average. A $2 win, place and show on all 14 cost $84. I got back $84.10. 

Coufefe, the huge favorite in Race 10, toyed with the small field before drawing away in the stretch. Look out, BREEDERS CUP, she's coming to see you !!

Renaissance Frolic looked great in winning the 8th race as my third pick, Wasabi Girl was my top pick in the 9th race and ran down Josie, my second pick to win, and -- despite only having two horses in the 11th race, In Good Spirits got the win and Hey Kitten finished third.  

Play certain numbers? #6 hit the board in three of the four races. So did #3. #1 got two payouts out of the four races. 

paulie
xxxxx 




Saturday, September 21, 2019

Saturday 9-21-19 Churchill Picks -- Late Pick 4


We'll try the late Pick 4 again at Churchill's September meet (races 8-11) and hope for a little better success than last week. Four challenging races await, with two nice optional claiming affairs -- one of the turf -- the Dogwood Stakes (with a prohibitive favorite in a small field) and a maiden special weight on the turf to close it out. 

Here we go. 

RACE 8 -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,500 


1 - CAPE ANGEL
2 - BEMMA'S BOY
6 - RENAISSANCE FROLIC
5 - HE'S CHEEKY 


RACE 9 -- 6 FURLONGS OPTIONAL CLAIMING $75,000 


5 - WASABI GIRL
11 - JOSIE
7 - AMERICAN LEGEND
3 - BANKER'S CHARM


RACE 10 -- THE DOGWOOD STAKES 7 FURLONGS $125,000


6 - COUFEFE
1 - BELL'S THE ONE
2 - TAKE CHARGE ANGEL 
5 - CHAMPAGNE ANYONE


RACE 11 -- 1 MILE (TURF) MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $95.000


3 - HEY KITTEN
1 - IN GOOD SPIRITS
12 - SHE CAN'T SING
11 - RAIN DANCE


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<SPECIAL !! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

( I'm hearing some GREAT THINGS about a horse in today's second race. #5 BLUNT FORCE -- a Paul McGee runner -- came into his own this summer with a win at a mile down at the ol' pea patch -- ELLIS PARK -- this one could be one to watch at 1-1/16th and might have a bit of a price. A nice closing stretch run against similar down there could be repeated today. Consider.) 


Good luck today and play 'em anyway you see fit !! 


paulie
xxxxx


Sunday, September 15, 2019

Saturday results from Churchill


An interesting day two for the Churchill meet. 

In the late Pick 4, only one favorite got his picture taken, and what a promising one in Dennis' Moment, in the Iroquois Stakes, He toyed with the rest of the field. Watch this one, readers. 


I had 15 of my 16 picks break from the gate...British Idiom, was scratched in the Pocahontas. Out of those, I had three winners, two seconds and three thirds. That's a 53% in the money percentage. 

If you are a "numbers" player...the #2 post position produced three winners on the 11 race card. #4 had two winners and the post positions #1, #6, #7, #8, #10 and #11 one winner each.

A Pick 4 wager that fell apart in the ninth race with Portrait unable to close in the Pocahontas and  knock me out of the wager. Bye, bye $96 investment.  

A $2 across the board wager on all 15 of my runners cost $90. It returned $105.80, so a small profit there. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Saturday 9-14-19 Churchil Late Pick 4



Huge opening weekend Saturday card today at Churchill. We'll try our skills on the late Pick 4 (Races 8-11). Three graded stakes and a very challenging maiden special weight rounds it out: 


RACE 8 -- LOCUST GROVE -- Grade III


3 - My Lady Curlin
5 - Escape Clause
7 - Go Google Yourself
2 - Moonlit Garden


RACE 9 -- POCAHONTAS -- Grade II


7 - British Idiom
6 - Morning Gold
3 - Portrait
8 - Lotta Ott


RACE 10 -- IROQUOIS -- GRADE III


4 - Rowdy Yates
8 - Dennis' Mom
3 - Scabbard
9 - Lebda


RACE 11 -- Maiden Special Weight -- $95,000


10 - Celtic Mischief
3 - Sprawl
9 - Hillbilly Deluxe
2 - Maxfield



Good luck today and remember our motto  "It takes money to make money." 


paulie
xxxxx 



Sunday, September 8, 2019

Success at KY Downs on Saturday


I ventured into the parimutuel pool yesterday at Kentucky Downs and came out refreshed and had the correct sequence of numbers in the Pick 4 to triple my investment. 

My wager of $144 returned $431.95. 

I also put a 2 across the board wager on all of my sixteen picks. The outlay of $96 brought back $87.20...so that didn't do quite as well.

Let's see how the picks did. I had four winners, two seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% in the money percentage.

The brief meet at Kentucky Downs is a handicapper's dream,,,and a bit of a nightmare. You have the best jockeys and trainers from across the nation (and Europe) coming in.

To walk out of there with a profit is a "pat on the back" achievement. I'LL REFER back to my two adages. 1) You need to be unafraid to put out the money to make money and 2) you can pick the winners but you can't pick what you'll get paid. 

Kentucky Downs ends their meet Thursday. 


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, September 7, 2019

SATURDAY KENTUCKY DOWNS 9-7-19


A fine day of racing awaits at Kentucky Downs this Saturday waits! 

I'm concentrating on the Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10), where three Grade III turf races are on the board. Some excellent runners in this sequence and it was hard to narrow it down to jus four picks per race. 

Here we go: 

RACE 7 -- RUNHAPPY TURF SPRINT -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- WET YOUR WHISTLE
3 -- IMPRIMIS
8 -- LEINSTAR
10 -- TOTALLY BOSS


RACE 8 -- THREE CHIMNEYS -- 1 MILE

3 -- KALLIO
4 -- VIVA VEGAS
7 -- MITCHELL ROAD
9 -- MS BAD BEHAVIOR


RACE 9 -- SPENDTHRIFT FARMS -- 6 1/2 FURLONGS

3 -- OLEKSANDRA
5 -- COEXISTANCE
7 -- MORTICIA
9 -- TINY TINA


RACE 10 -- CALUMET FARMS -- 1-1/2 MILE

2 -- MY BOY JACK
7 -- PILLAR MOUNTAIN
9 -- ZULU ALPHA
10 -- ARKLOW

Horses are listed in post position number, not preference. 

Best of luck to you today, play 'em anyway you like and let's make some money, honey !!


--paulie--

Sunday, September 1, 2019

KENTUCKY DOWNS OPENING DAY RESULTS


Sometimes the opening day of a meet offers some surprises. On Kentucky Downs opening day, we look at Races 7-10 and there were NO favorites who hit the wire first in any of these four. I did have some success in giving you three out of the four winners in the sequence.

Here's how the day went: 

I gave you 16 horses over the four race sequence, two got scratched -- so I had 14 runners leave the gate. Out of those, I had three winners, but nothing in the place or show spots. That's not a real great "in the money" percentage (21%). 

Race 7 paid me nicely with a $12 return on the $2 wager. Race 8 was even better, with a $22.80 win price. In Race 10, another $12 payoff on the win. 

Figuring a $2 win on all 14 runners ($28). the payback was $54.80, so that was profitable.

$2 across the board on all 14 ($84) would have returned $90.60, so I squeaked by with a small profit there. 

Playing the #7 horse in all four races would have been profitable the #7 won the seventh and ninth races and finished second the the tenth. 

It's called gambling and sometimes the best laid plans, study and handicapping doesn't always agree with the final results. The Pick 4 in the sequence paid $2066 on a ,50 cent wager.

Arguably the toughest race was the ninth (which I did not have the winner)...but playing my picks from yesterday and altering them by taking "ALL" in that race would have brought a Pick 4 cost of $384. ...so, once again, the adage of "it takes money to make money" would have returned roughly the same profit as a hitting a 2-1 shot. 

paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Kentucky Downs Opening Day

\September brings the brief but very exciting meet at Kentucky Downs. Turf racing, full fields and some potentially high returns on investments.

I'm going for the Late Pick 4. This sequence is Races 7-10. Four nice stakes races.  As always, bet 'em however you feel.


RACE 7

3 -- Stave
9 -- Limari
10 -- Smart Emma
7 -- Hanalel Moon


RACE 8

1 -- Snapper Sinclair
4 -- Hembree
6 -- Siem Rep
9 -- Mr Cub

RACE 9 

4 -- Lil Miss Hot
6 -- Weekend Fun 
10 -- Sunset Promise
12 -- Fly So Pretty


RACE 10

1 -- Memorable
4 -- Night Train
9 -- Our Country
12 -- Peace Achieved


Good luck and here's hoping your tickets go to the window and not the floor !!!

paulie
xxxxx








Sunday, August 25, 2019

SARATOGA TRAVERS DAY RESULTS ON PICKS


Not a great start at all in my early handicapping on Saratoga Travers Day. 

Let's face it, I was out of the Pick 5 after the first leg of the sequence. It got better, though

I gave you Memories of Peter in the 1st race as a long-shot special. He ran well -- just off the lead -- for the entire race, but came in fourth after a three-way photo for place. 

Place and show runners in Race 7, effectively killing the Pick 5, 

The "whenever I don't bet John Velasquez, he wins" curse continued in the eighth race with a second place finish,

Then, it picked up a bit. Both runners I selected in race 9 ( Midnight Bisou and Elate) ran first and second.   Race 10 we continued to improve with the exacta, trifecta and superfecta when three of my four picks finished in the money and my fourth pick ran fourth. 

We also had the Travers nailed down (Race 11) with the exacta and trifecta when it finished Code of Honor, Tacitus and Mucho Gusto. 

So, I put out 17 horses in all yesterday that I thought might hit the board. 

I had three winners, five seconds and three thirds -- which is 65% of horses selected that hit the board. The trifectas paid OK ($59.50 and $36). The Pick Three for races 9-11 was so-so at $63.50. It got a little better for Races 10-12 ($97.75). 

To slightly alter my theory of it takes money to make money, let's say yesterday was more like "it takes money to lose money". I invested $242 and got back $161.25. Ouch...

If I'd stuck with just Pick Threes, the outlay would have been $138 (on the $1 variety) and a return of the $161.25 mentioned above. Sometimes, it's how you bet them.


paulie
xxxxx

Saturday, August 24, 2019

SARATOGA TRAVERS DAY PICK 5 PICKS


It's going to be a great day of racing today at Saratoga on this Travers Day! 

I'm swinging for the fences, re-investing some of the money I've made up there this summer, in the Late Pick 5 . Starting in Race 7, there are four Grade I and one Grade II races in this sequence. 

Here's how I'm playing the .50 cent Pick 5 sequence. As always, use my picks anyway you want, and since this was posted around 9 a.m. Saturday morning...there might well be scratches...but the weather forecast is 0% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-seventies. 

Here we go! 

RACE 7 --  H. Allen Jerkins Stakes GI

1 -- Shancelot
4 -- Borracho
9 -- Hog Creek Hustle


RACE 8 --  Balliston Spa Stakes GII

2 -- Fifty Five
3 -- Secret Message
5 -- Indian Blessing


RACE 9 -- Personal Ensign Stakes GI 

1 -- Midnight Bisou
4 -- Elate


RACE 10 --  Sword Dancer Stakes GI 

4 -- Channel Cat
7 -- Annals of Time
8 -- Channel Maker
9 -- Sadler's Joy


RACE 11 -- The Travers Stakes GI 

2 -- Code of Honor
6 -- Tacitus
7 -- Mucho Gusto
12 -- Tax


My .50 wager for the sequence costs $144, but remember our adages here..., (1) don't be afraid to spend money to make money and (2) coverage is important. 

Once again, play 'em anyway you like and the picks are in Post Position order, not in top pick order. I've highlighted my favorite in each race. 


<><><><><><><><><><><>  LONGSHOT ON TODAY'S CARD<><><><><><><><><><>

RACE 1 -- #4 Memories of Peter

(I'm hearing good things about the recent claim of Memories of Peter. He shortens up today in distance and the change in jockeys (to turf speed jock Kendrick Carmouche) should really benefit his early, take the lead, running style.

He got bumped coming out of the gate last time out...in the West Point Stakes at Saratoga and lost all chance of winning after that. He drops back to optional claiming today and should have a much easier go of it .

I think he'll get the lead easily and hang on. but, in case he doesn't,  I'm going with a win, place, show wager. He could be a gift at morning line 12-1 odds !!

Good Luck and Have fun! 


paulie
xxxxx