Thursday, November 6, 2014

My saddest racing story...



My saddest racing story happened 40 years ago. Back in the day when there were actually three horse-racing tracks in Louisville. Churchill Downs, of course and then
off Poplar Level Road, there was harness racing at Louisville Downs. This story took place at the third track....Commonwealth Race Course (previously Miles Park) in the west end of Louisville. 

It was the place for me and my crew to go on Friday summer nights in 1974. Night racing! Beer vendors that didn't check ID's. A wide assortment of all different types of people and the chance to turn our weekly summertime job paychecks to more money. We actually started going in 1972...but the summer nights of 1974 were special. Me, Big Ed, Baby Bobby Brody, Little Stan and Crazy George would pile into my 1969 Chevelle Malibu or Ed's 1968 Chevy Van and hit the track on Friday nights. Saturday nights were Date Night. Friday nights were "Guys Night Out". 

We followed the horses out there...because back then, it wasn't uncommon for the low level claimers out there to run once a week. On the night in question, I noticed that TOOLITTLETOOLATE was running on the card. This old claimer had been a disappointment of late...getting punished in six or seven furlong affairs after getting to an early lead.

The owner and trainer had entered him in a 4 1/2 furlong that evening. Shorter distance. The betting crowd, however, didn't think he would be a contender. I was convinced he would be. I ponied up $25 of my hard earned cash and stuck it on his nose to win at 25-1 odds. The crew also backed him in varying dollar amounts. 

They broke from the gate. As usual, TOOLITTLETOOLATE sprinted to the lead. As they took the turn and headed down the short Commonwealth stretch...he was increasing that lead...with a furlong to go, he was up by five lengths. We were ecstatic beyond belief.

Then, it happened...

With a sickening thud, he fell to the dirt. The jockey dismounted and rolled to the rail to avoid getting run over by the rest of the field. They passed TOOLITTLETOOLATE left and right, no collisions fortunately...while he laid motionless on his side.

The van came out after the race and the track guys literally drug him inside and took off.

We were stunned. Wordless. Our sure thing...100 yards away from the finish line. Then, nothing. 

I found out later from a trainer that TOOLITTLETOOLATE apparently had a massive heart attack and died almost instantly. 

I'd like to think that the veteran old runner's last thoughts were something like..."Hey, it doesn't get any better than this...I'm the champ today"...and he died with those positive thoughts in his brain as he drew his last breath.  

On that evening TOOLITTLETOOLATE was "more than enough" but just couldn't make the final 100 yards. I kept that losing ticket for quite some time...as a reminder that things can suddenly, rapidly change in life. During my several location moves and packings over the years, it got misplaced. Lost. The memory still remains, though.

Somewhere, I hope there is a horse heaven...and TOOLITTLETOOLATE is getting those final 100 yards and winning by 5 lengths...

-paulie

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Saturday Breeders Cup Picks



NINE RACES ON BREEDERS CUP SATURDAY


(You can see Friday's picks and results on Friday's entry)


BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES - RACE 4

 By The Moon on top here and will also consider Angela Renee, Conquest and Top Decile underneath. 

Recap:  We got shut out here. The bomb Take Charge Brandy wasn't in our wheelhouse. Top Decile ran 2nd.

FILLY AND MARE TURF - RACE 5

Stephanie's Kitten is my selection for the sprint. I'll also use Secret Gesture, Dank and Dayatthespa in vertical and horizontal wagers.

Recap: A nice exacta with DayattheSpa and Stephanie's Kitten and a profit on across the board on Stephanie's Kitten. One in on the Pick 3, too

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT - RACE 6



Artemis Agrotera should finish on top in this highly competitive race. I'll also use Judy The Beauty, Sweet Reason and Thank You Marylou in the gimmicks. 

Recap: Judy the Beauty wins and keeps us alive in the Pick 3. Thank You Marylou a nice longshot price for third. 

TURF SPRINT - RACE 7

No Nay Never gets a slight edge here. Home Run Kitten, Bobby's Kitten and Undrafted will be right there also and if Za Approval draws in as an also-eligible...I'll include him.

Recap: We catch the Pick 3 with Bobby's Kitten and exacta plus huge trifecta with No Nay Never running second for a nice across the board profit and Undrafted getting third.  



JUVENILE - RACE 8



Carpe Diem was impressive at Keeneland and draws my attention. Daredevil, Mr Z and Upstart are usable and will fill out the wagering exotics. 

Recap: Texas Red knocks us out of the Pick 3 we had going. Our pick Carpe Diem gets us a little across the board money back and Upstart ran third. 

TURF - RACE 9

We're going for a price here and looking for Chicquita to outlast Telescope, Main Sequence and Flintshire in another hard-to-decide race. 

Main Sequence gets the final Pick 4 off to a successful start and we catch another exacta with Flintshire running second.

SPRINT - RACE 10


Awfully tough to decide between Indianapolis and Secret
Circle in this dash. I'll play both on top and also figure Rich Tapestry, Fast Anna and Work All Week to factor in. 
hot
Recap: Work All Week gets us a huge win and Secret Circle running 2nd gives us a very nice exacta. Still alive in the Pick 3 and 4 !! 

MILE - RACE 11

Solidly behind Toronado here. To fill the exacta and other multi-horse wagers...I'm looking at Mustajeeb, Tom's Thumb and Seek Again.

Recap:  Longshot Karakonite wipes us out of everything! Drat! We got dusted in this race. No top 3 finishers. 

CLASSIC - RACE 12




Bayern is my winner for the Classic and my best bet of the day. Martin Garcia and Bob Baffert should prevail over Shared Belief, Tonalist, Cigar Street and the very dangerous California Chrome.

Recap: Bayern survives the Stewards Inquiry and gives us a very nice end to Breeders Cup Saturday. My partner in wagering Tommy Boy also suggested a $2 exacta wheel with Bayern on top and "all" underneath..which also scored well for us. 

The results: 

We wagered a whopping $726 on the day's card. Here's what we got back:

Race 5 - $8 on Stephanie's Kitten and $27 on the exacta
Race 7 - $9 on No Nay Never, $351 on the Pick Three, $54 on the exacta and $647 on the trifecta.
Race 8 - $3 on Carpe Diem
Race 9 - $32 on the exacta
Race 10 - $122 on the exacta
Race 12 - $278 on across the board on Bayern. ($20 across)
and the $2 Exacta $250

Money won...$1581 - money wagered $726 = $855 profit. With the $109 profit from Friday..a two day score = $964.

We hope you were along for the ride...


paulie
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Thursday, October 30, 2014

FRIDAY breeders cup picks



FRIDAY BREEDERS CUP OFFERS FOUR TOUGH RACES



The Friday edition of the 2014 Breeders' Cup offers four very challenging races. Nevertheless, Paulie has run the numbers and has his selections for you. Sonja has opted out this year for Friday...she'll come up with a few Saturday Selections, however. 

OK. Here we go.

JUVENILE TURF


A very tough race with a bunch of babies involved. After careful scrutiny, I've come up with my picks. I'm taking Hootenanny as my top pick...but would not be overly surprised if Imperia, Conquest Typhoon or Akfabantay get to the winner's circle. I'll box the four in an exacta and trifecta and also include them in any Pick 3 or 4 wagering I attempt. Hootenanny will get an across the board bet, too.

( Post race analysis...Well, we called it correctly. Hootenanny charging strongly to win at the wire. Akfabantay scratched and we passed on the exotics because of that. We're still alive in the Pick 3 and 4, though...and got a solid price across the board on Hootenanny at $14.00   $7.80 and $5.60. The Brits are 1 for 1. )  

DIRT MILE



Goldencents absolutely loves Santa Anita and is my top selection here. I'm also going with Golden Ticket, Pants On Fire and Tapiture for the gimmicks. I've always loved Tapiture since the 2 yr. old campaign and he'll get an across the board wager along with Goldencents. These two will also be in any multi-race wagers. 

( Post race analysis...Goldencents took them wire to wire...holding off Tapiture. We're alive in the Pick 3 and 4 and got a profit in our across the board wagers. The exacta was disappointing though..we lost a few dollars and the trifecta didn't happen. ) 


JUVENILE FILLIES TURF



Another hard-to-handicap affair...but Sunset Glow is the horse to beat...in my opinion. We'll toss in Lady Eli, Quality and Lady Zuzu for exacta and trifecta consideration and put all four in the mix for the Pick 3 and 4. Sunset Glow will get an across the board nod, too. 

(Post race analysis:  Lady Eli blew by Sunset Glow in the stretch and wins for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr. Keep us alive in the Pick 4 and we hit the Pick 3 for $65.80...plus another consolation Pick 3 for $15.30 since Lady Zuzu scratched at the gate. Sunset Glow got 2nd and paid us $5.20 and $3.40. The exacta was ours also...for $17.50 but we did lose the trifecta. One to go...)

DISTAFF


I'll be chasing a probable price here with Ria Antonia. Underneath we'll structure my second choice Untapable along with Close Hatches and Don't Tell Sophia. This one promises to be a great race and if Ria Antonia can unleash that powerful run of hers late...my across the board on her should be a nice profit. Untapable will join her in my multi-pick race wagers. After all...she's undeniable, unquestioned, unbeatable and Untapable...

(Post race recap...

Untapable wins. Our Ria Antonia ran a hard pressed fourth. Give us the Pick 4...a modest payout though at $78.85 and we caught that twice...and the exacta was ours also. We failed on the trifecta again and may have to adjust trifecta strategy for tomorrow. A late superfecta that cost us $9 yielded over $60. ) 

Here's a recap of the Twin Spires wagering for the day. We did a little better than what you'll see below...with our on-site wagers at Churchill.


completed 2014-10-31 19:55:29
StatusTrackR#WagerRunner(s)ConditionsBet AmtReturn AmtWon/Lost

Total (accepted wagers):$ 75.80$ 225.57+ $ 109.77
Pending Wagers:$ 0.00

SA#9$0.10 Superfecta10,​WT,9,​WT,7,​WT,11none$ 0.10$ 0.00- $ 0.10

SA#9$0.10 Superfecta9,​WT,10,​WT,7,​WT,11none$ 0.10$ 0.00- $ 0.10

SA#9$0.10 Superfecta9,10,​WT,7,9,10,11,​WT,3,5,7,9,10,11,​WT,2,3,5,7,9,10,11none$ 9.60$ 60.77+ $ 51.17

SA#7$1 ExactaBX,1,6,9none$ 6.00$ 7.10+ $ 1.10





none

- $ 40.00

SA#6$0.50 Pick-43,5,6,9,11,​WT,1,6,9,​WT,2,3,4,9,​WT,9,10none$ 60.00$ 157.70+ $ 97.70



Good luck, wager responsibly and come back tomorrow for a look at the Saturday Breeders' Cup picks.

paulie
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014



OK...I realize that i haven't been over to my personal website in awhile to comment and pontificate.

Life gets in the way sometimes. To catch up? Well, it could take awhile...so grab a cup of coffee, find a comfy chair and hang on. This could take awhile.

COLONOSCOPIES ARE CRAPPY


Literally. You should have one once you reach 50. Men AND women. The day of preparation for a colonoscopy procedure is living hell. I recently had one. You make no plans for that prep day, you do not venture far from the "loo" and you drink tons of water and Gatorade...just to surrender it all back in a most egregious and stinking fashion.

Compounded to the misery of "let's roll to the bowl" syndrome...my right IT tendon has been acting up again...which slowed me down in terms of making the brisk walk to make a deposit.

I have found a alternative solution to the act of colon cleansing. Have four White Castles, an order of Onion rings and six spicy buffalo wings. Same result, for me, next morning, as taking the prep medication.

The procedure itself was a snap...compared to the pre-game. My doctor, however, jumped my frame and said that I had polyps. They were tested, they were benign...but there were enough of them for him to insist I come back in for a visit next year. There's also a tear in my colon wall. That's being dealt with much faster.

I had the chance to talk "shop" about colonoscopies with a friend at 80 Under 80 before the Saturday football game against NC State. I have no idea how we got on the subject...maybe it was because I was bar-tending and that's a real shitty job at the club....but he relayed his experiences of the multiple ones he had and how he almost died from colon cancer.

Go get it checked out, kids.

 End of the Dr. Paul segment.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

One of the hardest things for me to do over at my other site...CARDINAL COUPLE...is ask readers and listeners for donations. When I set the site up several years back...the intent was to provide an independent website for UofL women's athletics. As a 501 C non-profit.

The site is going well and the readership increases every month...but the monthly costs associated with doing it effectively have been a drain on our personal finances. We tried advertising as a way to create income. It failed. Being a veteran of the advertising game, I know full well the reluctance of businesses to spend money on advertising. The pressures and demands of advertisers in exchange for accepting money from them is something I hated dealing with.

So, we go with the donation aspect.

We do it as a break-even, cover costs scenario. I recently outlined to a reader the monthly costs involved in maintaining the site on a monthly basis. Most months, we are "in the red" and the funds still come out of my pocket. We recently ran a sponsor campaign to create income over at CARDINAL COUPLE and it gleaned enough gratefully appreciated contributions to give us a four-month "cushion" to pay the bills.

I dream of one well-backed financier coming to me someday...laying down a couple of thousand dollars and saying..."I hope this helps."

I haven't run across that individual yet.

It's the guys and gals who drop us a $20, or buy t-shirts that sustain us. I'm sure people get tired of seeing me plead for money over at CARDINAL COUPLE. I don't enjoy doing it. But, we keep in mind that we want to provide the best coverage we can as an independent website for UofL women's sports and rest assured that the monies we receive go to keep that mission statement and dream alive.

Consider helping us out.

paulie
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Friday, August 15, 2014

Collmus headed to New York



Larry Collmus, we barely knew you.

After replacing the ubiquitous Brit Mark Johnson in the announcer's booth at Churchill Downs in the spring of 2014...Collmus is packing his tack and headed to New York for 2015. 

In race track parlance, he has pulled up on the first turn and been eased.  

The lure of calling racing at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga for the NYRA and replacing the legend Tom Durkin proved to be a strong siren song for Collmus.

Several friends and I discussed the possibility of Collmus bolting from the gate when Durkin announced he was going to retire. It has come to fruition. 

Who will Churchill bring in to do the stretch calls? 

I'll offer a few options here.

1)  NO MORE guys with English, Australian or South Africa accents. That experiment failed and that boat has sailed.

2) Someone as colorful and exciting as the late Luke Krutybosch. His call of a race was exciting, not mechanical.

3) Kurt Becker. He does the Keeneland meets. He did Churchill for a year before taking on more auto racing announcer gigs. Time to throw an obscene amount of money at him and woo him back. His 'call' is excellent. 

4) John C. Dooley also calls a great race. Easy to understand and gives a clear picture of what is going on.
Besides calling the races at Arlington Park, Dooley spends the winters doing the same at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

5) John Asher. He has declined to be part of any consideration in a pre-emptive strike...but if Churchill loosen up the purse strings and covered John in "C-Notes"...it might put him in the chair.

6) How about a gal? Jill Byrne and Donna Barton Brothers are eloquent and knowledgeable. Jeanine Edwards knows the routine...

Whichever way Churchill goes after the fall meet...I hope they keep in mind that the average race fan just wants to hear where their bet/horse is in a race and who won. The rest is all fluff and filler. They took Luke from relative obscurity (Turf Meadows) and he shone. Is it time to give a similar small-time track race caller a break?  


paulie

Sunday, June 29, 2014


Results from Churchill 9th on June 29th

Centella broke slow and unhurried from the gate and settled into last place of eight  runners after a furlong in the six furlong race. Way back as they reached the turn, she was angled to the rail by jockey Corey Lanerie and made some progress in passing tiring horses but finished sixth...14 1/2 lengths back of the winner.

Allowance company can be tough when facing it the first time. Centella went off at odds of 5-1 but was no match for the top four finishers.

It will be interesting to see the next move Angel Montano, Sr. makes with the horse. Ellis Park? A rest until Churchill's September meet? Arlington or either of the Indiana tracks?

One thing for sure...there was nothing there today.

It was a good spring Churchill meet for Paulie, though. Did some tracking through Twinspires.com, my wagering venue of choice when I am not at Churchill.

Showed a profit of $812.00 on races bet at Churchill.

That's not counting the money won at the track. I estimate another $1800 there in profit.

Summer brings Saratoga and the best racing in the states. I got beat up pretty good in handicapping there in 2013.

Hope springs eternal, though and I'm anxious to implement the recent handicapping/wagering strategy I've been using on the upstate New York track. It did pretty well at Belmont and I also showed a profit at Keeneland this spring when I first started using it.

They're at the post!

paulie

Friday, June 27, 2014

Centella runs on Sunday



CARDINAL COUPLE associate Jenny O'Bryan's horse Centella is entered in the 9th race at Churchill Downs on Sunday.

She was much the best against claiming company over seven furlongs back on June 19th. How good? Click the link below and see:

CENTELLA AND COREY LANERIE ROMP


The "grey" shortens up Sunday...going six furlongs...but moves up to allowance company. This is a good thing because no one can "claim" or buy the horse away from the ownership group.

But...the competition is tougher in the allowance ranks.

Former owner and trainer Keith Beisler advises:

"When you move one up the ladder after an impressive win, the betting public tends to go a little nuts on your horse in wagering. People looking for an angle. The horse is certainly in capable hands with Lanerie in the saddle and Angel Montano training. After reviewing Centella's latest...the fractions weren't hurried and if she can get the same trip as last out...I really like her chances to return to the winners circle. I'll also watch the toteboard and see what the best way is to make a nice profit on her. Exotics could come into play here....sometimes I'll take a horse like her, single her in a PK3 or PK 4 and go heavy in the other legs. It's a high risk/high reward scenario...but if she wins and you catch some nice prices in the other legs...it could be a sweet payday."

Her fractional times last time out were leisurely. 23.68 for the quarter, 47.47 after the half, six furlongs in 1:12.68 and a finish of 1:25

We'll be watching Sunday and hoping Centella can get her picture taken again in the winners' circle. From $30,000 claiming to $52,000 allowance company is a bold leap forward....but Sunday's card is traditionally weak and it could be a great spot for her.

Good luck, Centella...Jenny (and Paulie)...who hopes to make another big score on her like he did on the 19th.










Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Steve Coburn --- Good or bad for horse racing?



When people look back on the running of the 2014 Belmont Stakes, it may be the owner of a horse that lost they remember instead of the winner.

Steve Coburn has had his 15 minutes of fame...and then some...and got it in a bizarre fashion.

His three-year old CALIFORNIA CHROME won the Kentucky Derby. Pretty easily. Dumb Ass Partners (quite an appropriate name for the ownership group) took the horse to Maryland to compete in the Preakness...the second leg of horse racing's triple crown. While there, Steve used the bully pulpit to slam Churchill Downs' supposed lack of coddling for him and his entourage.

Wah, wah, wah.

They won the Preakness and off to the Big Apple and Elmont, New York for the Belmont Stakes. What would the cranky old man do next?

Ol' Chrome didn't shine too brightly in the Belmont Stakes...finishing in a tie for fourth place. The media descended upon Steve and he used the venue to once again become the bitter, old whiner. The gospel according to Coburn:

-The owners of Tonalist...winner of the Belmont were cheaters for not running in all three legs of racing's triple crown.

-The system is broke and it needs fixing. Sweeping changes are needed in the Triple Crown format.

-His horse having to compete against fresher horses was like a wheelchair victim playing basketball against a 6'2" athlete.

...Shut up, grandpa...

You lost the triple crown. That does not make you unique. Ironically, your whiny, finger-pointing rant did bring a lot of attention to the Triple Crown, the race and horse racing in general.

But, you...sir...are an ass.

Apologies 48 hours after the rant don't cut it. Sack up and take it like a man. You competed, you lost. Show a little class.

The future of California Chrome? Early indications are that the horse will remain out on the left coast and race out there. That means a possible Breeders Cup entry this fall. Sure, the horse clipped heels coming out of the gate and got a cut on his leg. That's equivalent to Shoni Schimmel getting a scratch in a game from an opposing player. You put a band-aid on it and play on.

The future of Steve Coburn? Chasing kids off of his lawn. Criticizing kids for spilling milk. Arguing with servers at the early bird, senior citizen discount at Ryan's Steak House. Gout, incontinence and flatulence. AARP discounts and references to his resemblance to Wilford Brimley.

The owners, trainer and jockey of Tonalist deserved that spotlight. Joel Rosario is one of the best riders in the world. He was virtually ignored. The grumpy old man stumbled in front of it and refused to leave.

Steve Coburn is bad for horse racing. A poor sport who has no idea what the terms 'gracious in defeat' and 'congratulory' mean. It wouldn't bother me at all if he slunk into the shadows and kept his mouth shut. In fact, I encourage it.

No one likes a party-pooper... 

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Belmont Stakes Day



The quest for Triple Crown supremacy lies in front of California Chrome in the form of a long. grueling Belmont home stretch. 

I think he'll get the job done.

But I'm throwing in some longshot possibilities just in case he doesn't. Favorites and Belmont Stakes are two things that don't mesh well. 

Here's the two plays I'll make today for Bemont Stakes wagering:

TRIFECTA:

I'm going with a trifecta wheel (50 cent variety).

2,4,5,9
2,4,5,9,11
1,2,4,5,8,9,11

Cost:  $40

1 is Medal Count 2 is California Chrome. 4 is Commanding Curve. 5 is Ride On Curlin. 8 is Commissioner. 9 is Wicked Strong. 11 is Tonalist.

EXACTA:

Three plays here:

2 with all wheel  $1 variety. 
Cost: $10

All with 2 wheel  $1 variety
Cost: $10

Exacta box 2,4,5,8  $1 variety
Cost $12

I'll also try a late Pick 4 that will conclude with the Belmont. Those
numbers are. ( 50 cent variety)

Leg 1:  6, 9,10
Leg 2:  1, 4, 9, 13
Leg 3:  1, 5, 6, 9
Leg 4:  2, 4, 5, 8

Cost $96

If you feel real good about California Chrome's chances...then Leg 4 could be reduced to #2. That would only cost $24.

I'll spend the extra to see if I can get a huge price on a upset. 

Good luck, wager responsibly and have fun! 

UPDATE:

RESULTS:

11 - Tonalist  10.20   4.80   3.50
8   - Commisioner     11.60  6.60
1   - Medal Count                6.60

$1 exacta  11/8   174.00
.50 trifecta 11/8/1  1695.00
.50 pick 4  5/1,6/8/11   425.25

(Oh well, took a bath on these. A $168 loser. Just didn't give Tonalist enough respect. I will point out, though...that on site...at track...I was part of a 5 person /.50 trifecta wheel where we spent $20 each and got back $339 each on the Belmont Stakes. That did help me come out way ahead for the day.)

paulie

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Thursday, June 5, 2014

California Chrome gets good post position for Belmont



It looks like the Belmont Stakes is setting up nicely for California Chrome. A decent post position draw from the #2 gate, a less than impressive field of 10 competitors and favorable weather predicted for the Saturday final leg of the Triple Crown. 

The Belmont can be a cruel mistress, though. The long stretch to finish the race is a demanding test to win the 1 1/2 mile contest. Someone loves him, though...he has opening odds of 3/5. Bet a Lincoln on him, get it and three Washington's back if he wins. $50 will get you $80.

If he stays there. I've heard tell of a 1/5 potential when they leave the gate at 6:30 p.m.

We'll look at a few of the horses entered that will try to ruin CC's bid to be the first triple crown winner in 35 years.

Tonalist (8-1) It's his first Triple Crown event but he won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont in convincing fashion and is bred to go every step of the 1 1/2 mile race. Four career starts could be a hindrance...the track will not...he loves Belmont.

Wicked Strong (6-1) He did win the Wood Memorial in New York earlier this spring and ran fourth in the Derby...six lengths back of CC. He's been rested since, thrilled the clockers with his workouts so far at Belmont and is a closer.
In a perfect race, he'll lay back, move on the final turn and try to catch the front runners in the stretch. 

Commanding Curve (15-1) Runner up to CC in the Derby and was closing late. He skipped the Preakness also, so he has five weeks of rest under his saddle and will be another that will let the pacesetters tire and fire late. He was 1-3/4 lengths back of CC in the Derby. One to watch...with the added distance and rest factor involved.

Ride on Curlin (12-1) Finished second to CC in the Preakness. His trainer seems to think the Belmont distance is ideal for this late runner and he was making up ground at the end of the Preakness. He tried the Derby also...so whether fatigue will be a factor remains to be seen. 

These four and CC will figure into my betting strategy for the Belmont. We'll try to make a profit by placing them strategically in a few exacta and trifecta boxes. How deep I'll use all five in any Pick 3 or 4 wagers will depend on what the other races in the sequence look like.  

Do I have a longshot? Whaddya think the other 10 running against CC are? I will say that I was a big fan of Commissioner early in his career and he has disappointed. Redemption time? Possible...but not very likely. He does get Javier Castellano aboard, though...one of my five favorite jockeys currently. 

Who are the other four? Brian Hernandez. Jr., Rosie Napravnik, Corey Lanerie and Joe Talamo. Only Rosie...out of the four listed above...is riding in the Belmont. Her horse is General A Rod. Love Rosie, I do...but don't think her horse has a chance at all. 

I'll try to update some betting strategies Saturday morning.

The rest of the field is listed below.  



The Belmont Draw


PostHorseJockeyTrainerOdds
1Medal CountRobbie AlbaradoDale Romans20-1
2California ChromeVictor EspinozaArt Sherman3-5
3MatterhornJoe BravoTodd Pletcher30-1
4Commanding CurveShaun BridgmohanDallas Stewart15-1
5Ride On CurlinJohn VelazquezBilly Gowan12-1
6MatuszakMike SmithBill Mott30-1
7SamraatJose OrtizRick Violette20-1
8CommissionerJavier CastellanoTodd Pletcher20-1
9Wicked StrongRajiv MaraghJimmy Jerkens6-1
10General a RodRosie NapravnikMike Maker20-1
11TonalistJoel RosarioChristophe Clement8-1
BelmontStakes.com


TV NBC
Purse $1.5 million
POST
HORSE
ODDS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Medal Count
California Chrome
Matterhorn
Commanding Curve
Ride On Curlin
Matuszak
Samraat
Commissioner
Wicked Strong
General a Rod
Tonalist
20-1
3-5
30-1
15-1
12-1
30-1
20-1
20-1
6-1
20-1
8-1