Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Winning the Triple Crown -- An elusive goal



Saturday, June 7th. we'll see another attempt from a horse to capture the Triple Crown of horse racing. California Chrome will atempt the 1 1/2 mile Belmont racetrack...that long foreboding stretch...and look to get his third win in six weeks.

From a feat that seemed almost commonplace in the 1970's...the elusive Triple Crown has become the impossible mountain to climb.

Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) all took the crown in the 1970's. Veteran racing fans will remember the amazing stretch battles between Alydar and Affirmed in all three races in 1978.

Since then, a few have tried...getting two wins..but failed.
Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Charismatic, Funny Cide and War Emblem all went into the Belmont with a chance. All got defeated.

The streak of no Triple Crown winner has been 35 years. It should be pointed out that the previous streak between no Triple Crown winners (from Secrectariat to Citation in 1948) was 25 years.

California Chrome is a good horse. I won't assign greatness to him. Not until he runs in the Belmont Stakes.



paulie


Sunday, May 18, 2014

Chrome is golden in Preakness



It was a decision that went against my normal wagering strategies. As I looked at the racing form for the 139th. running of the Preakness, it became increasingly clear to me that no one in the field of ten was going to beat California Chrome.

Yes, I liked Bayern and think he'll be a great horse eventually in minor stakes races. I did use him in a few exotics with General A Rod, Social Inclusion, Ride On Curlin and California Chrome. He's still out there running...

I decided to "unbuckle" on California Chrome. The horse looked great, had gained 35 pounds since the Derby...which indicated to me he was feeling good, emptying his feed bag each day and was showing no ill effects nor worn out from the win at Churchill.

I hoped for a scenario just like the Derby...where Victor Espinoza kept him just off the pace and moved him as the horses approached the stretch. I got it.

California Chrome paid $3 to win on a $2 wager and also $3 to place. It wasn't a huge profit on the exacta or trifecta either. The Pick 3 that ended with the Preakness was peanuts as well...but it's good when you leave with more money that you came in with.

I did.

That was questionable earlier in the Pimico (and Churchiil) cards. My Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers at each track weren't hitting. I discussed this with my buddy Tommy Boy. We agreed that getting three bucks for every two wagered wasn't brilliance in handicapping strategy but it was a 50% return on investment and was preferable to leaving tickets on the table that were worthless.

When I did cash out...I was joking about getting a Wes Welker result...but I received exactly what was due. Speaking of Welker...the guy makes $2 million a year to drop passes in the NFL. How about making a $14,000 donation to The Crusade for Children, or the charity of your choice? Be a good guy, Wes. Do the right thing.

Will California Chrome win the Triple Crown three weeks from now in New York at the Belmont Stakes? Probably, but we'll watch with interest to see who will challenge him. Will the all-star filly Untapable enter? Does Danza try again after running third in the Kentucky Derby? How about the second place finisher in the Derby...Commanding Curve?

Will Ride On Curlin take another shot at him?

Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, back at Churchill...five and six horse fields make up the early races. Not much challenge (or profit) there...we made a decision yesterday to try and beat the favorites in the early races. That didn't go so well.

But...once again...my investment advisor Little Marty would bounce off the walls with joy if he could find something he could hook me up with that would yield 50% gain with little risk.

I took the money and enjoyed the day.

Here's my version of the race that I sent to a small independent newspaper who asked me to cover the Triple Crown for them:

California Chrome broke well from the gate, settled behind the early speed and kept to task behind the early leaders. Approaching the homestretch, he was asked to move and responded well for Victor Espinoza...easily taking the lead. He was wrapped up without urging in the final furlong and won easily by two lengths over late charging Ride On Curlin. The battle for third was won by Social Inclusion, who nosed out General A Rod at the wire in a photo finish for show money.

paulie

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Preakness lineup and thoughts...



Preakness lineup with post positions, morning line odds

Preakness 2014
Preakness 2014
Here’s the lineup for the 139th Preakness by post position:
1. Dynamic Impact (M. Casse/M.Mena) (12-1)
2. General a Rod (M. Maker/J. Castellano) (15-1)
3. California Chrome (A. Sherman/V. Espinoza) (3-5)
4. Ring Weekend (G. Motion/A. Garcia) (20-1)
5. Bayern (B. Baffert/R. Napravnik) (10-1)
6. Ria Antonia (T. Amoss/C. Borel) (30-1)
7. Kid Cruz (L. Rice/J. Pimentel) (20-1)
8. Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua/L. Contreras) (5-1)
9. Pablo del Monte (W. Ward/J. Sanchez) (20-1)
10. Ride On Curlin (B. Gowan/J. Rosario) (10-1)


Thanks to my buddy JJ for posting these!

 They got CC in as great post position here and Victor "Punch-in-the-nosa" will keep him out of trouble until it's time to move. I expect a similar scenario to the Derby. Following the speed, saving ground and pouncing to win by 3-4 lengths.

I hope Bayern can do the same, not get caught up in a speed duel and challenged in the short Pimlico stretch. He's my second pick...love the Rosie/Baffert jockey and trainer combination here and hope "the big B" runs huge Saturday.

It also looks like Pimlico will be dry after getting two days of what we've been having here in Louisville.

So...strategy plays to make money on a race where a 3-5 favorite might even get bet down below that?

1) Exacta wheels: 3 with all, all with 3. We're trying to catch a longshot beneath CC or a major upset where CC runs second.    Cost?  If you do it for a buck...total cost will be $18.

2) Trifecta :  I'll try a 3,5 on top...with a 1,3,5,9,10 underneath and put 1,2,3,5,8,9,10 on the bottom.
Cost?  I'll do it for 50 cents and total cost will be $20. If I'm having a good day, maybe for $1...which would cost $40.

3) I'm a big fan of Bayern...horse #5. I'll bet him across the board. High risk, high reward...but it is called gambling.

I'll also look at a Pick 3 and/or Pick 4 associated with the Preakness but won't decide on that until Saturday,

Good luck and wager responsibly.

Monday, May 12, 2014

 
PREAKNESS NEWS

A filly is going to challenge the boys in the Preakness for the first time since 2009 when Rachel Alexandra won.
 
 
Ria Antonia will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who guided Rachel Alexandra to victory. Ria Antonia is coming off a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks on May 2 at Churchill Downs, where she has been training.
 
 
For the first time in the Preakness, a filly, a female jockey and a female trainer will all compete at the same time. Rosie Napravnik will ride Bayern while trainer Linda Rice will saddle Kid Cruz.
Ria Antonia's trainer, Tom Amoss, said Monday the idea to run her against the boys came from her owners. He said she has passed all the tests to take on the challenge. She joined his barn three days after the Oaks, when the owners decided to switch to Amoss from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.
 
 
"I don't know what happened in the Oaks, but I like the way she looks now," Amoss said. "We have a healthy, sound horse and we are ready to roll the dice."
 
 
Nice words, but don't figure on the filly hitting the board.  I like Bayern and if California Chrome falls down, unseats his rider or decides to party with the throng in Pimlico's infield...that's my wise guy, longshot pick.
 
 
Amoss said he sees the Preakness as Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome versus everyone else. He says if California Chrome runs his race in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness then he will win, but if not, it opens up opportunities for other horses, including Ria Antonia.
 
 
Ria Antonia is scheduled to jog at Churchill Downs on Tuesday and arrive in Baltimore from Louisville, Kentucky, on Wednesday. The 139th Preakness is Saturday.
 
 
It will be the third time a Triple Crown race has had a filly, a female trainer and a female jockey.
In the 1984 Kentucky Derby, Patricia Cooksey rode So Vague to an 11th-place finish, one spot ahead of Biloxi Indian, trained by Diane Carpenter. Fillies Life's Magic was eighth and Althea was 19th.
In the 1996 Belmont Stakes, Hall of Fame jockey Julie Krone rode South Salem, who was eased; Cynthia Reese trained In Contention to a ninth-place finish; and filly My Flag was third.
 
 
California Chrome galloped 1 ¼ miles Monday at Churchill and then departed on a flight to Baltimore.
 
 
"Everything is perfect," said Alan Sherman, assistant to his father and trainer Art Sherman, who will rejoin the colt in Maryland. Based on the way CC handled the field on Derby Day, a jog is probably all Sherman's horse will need to win Saturday.
 
 
Also on the same flight were Preakness contenders Ride On Curlin, who finished seventh in the Derby with Borel on board; General a Rod, who was 11th in the Derby; and Pablo Del Monte, who didn't run in the Derby because the owners didn't like the No. 20 post position.
 
 
Pablo Del Monte won't enjoy Pimlico any better. Ride On Curlin may improve, but not much. General A Rod should retire like his namesake. I'll wait for post postitions before I divulge more.


          *                    *                     *                      *                      *                       *

Who had the unparallelled success I did on "Thurby", Oaks and Derby Day that I had? Not many, that's who. We gave you picks and if you played them, you did quite well.

Recently, I was "called out" by one of those handicappers who sells his information and selections for profit.

He is a moron. Told me, face-to-face. that we were "second-rate" and should stick to covering women's sports.

He is jealous. I did better than him, gave my information out for free and it is embarrassing to him.

Who loves ya, baby?

I don't do this for profit. It is my personal blog. I enjoy it. 

I shared three days of horseracing handicapping with whoever wanted to read it. If you bet the way I suggested...and the way I did...you, too...would have come out over $600 ahead.

Enuf said...
 
Paulie
 
 

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Preakness early look --- Who will challenge California Chrome?



It's been 5 days since the running of the 140th Kentucky Derby and the field for the next leg of the Triple Crown...the Preakness...is getting a few takers. The list is nowhere complete by any means yet...but here are some horses that are being mentioned as CC's challengers.

- Filly Ria Antonio,who ran in the Kentucky Oaks and finished 15 1/4 lengths behind Untapable is in Maryland and may try the boys. My question is...why? She's a miler, nothing more.

- Social Inclusion...who had his 3 yr. old campaign temporarily shelved with a bad hoof is announced as a probable. A good horse but not one that can beat CC.

- Ring Weekend. Another that was an early consideration for the Derby but didn't throw the name in the hat. A lot of question marks here...mostly negative.

- Pablo Del Monte. Drew into the Derby as an also-eligible but also scratched. I do like this one's running style and will study more closely as the race approaches.

- Ride On Curlin. Was 7th in the Derby and the change has been made to Joel Rosario on board instead of Calvin Borel. Wait and see theory on this one. Never seriously contended at Churchill on the first Saturday in May.

- Dynamic Impact. Winner of the Illinois Derby but money wasn't there to get a Derby slot. Fine horse but not in CC's class.

- Bayern. The winner of the Derby Trial on opening night at Churchill but was disqualified for bumping in the stretch. He'll probably be one of the ones I put in exotic wagers. I do like him.

- Kid Cruz. Won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico...so he had the home track angle working for him. The race wasn't that impressive. Will wait to see who is riding.

Bottom line for me is that I don't see anyone here that looks capable of beating CC. Eight nice horse, yes...but...as far as I can determine...they'll all be running for second place on May 17th...

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Post Derby Wrap Up



The good fortunes of profitable wagering at Churchill this week had to end eventually and Derby Day proved to be the jumping-off point.

Although Sonja and I were at a Derby Party and enjoyed that immensely, I was able
to get our wagers down on one of the online wagering services.

We took our top four picks in the races we outlined and did a $1 exacta box and $1 trifecta box on each. It cost us $36 per person per race...or a total outlay of $216 each.

For her investments, Sonja hit exactly one exacta box that paid $31.50...so she was a $175 loser on the day.

I fared a little better, hitting exactas that paid $54.10, $31.50, $62.30 and $6.90.  My payout of $216 returned $154...so I took a $62 loss on the day.

Neither of us hit a trifecta.

Looking at all three days of wagering, we still showed a profit.

As for the Derby race...it was a perfectly crafted ride by Victor Espinoza for Art Sherman on California Chrome. The time was slow for a Ky. Derby...but the California runner looks to be one that has a shot at Triple Crown immortality.

The Derby Party we attended was a great time and there was plenty of food, beverages, bean bag toss, frisbee and fun. There were jackpots available on each races and there was a rumor floating about that if a fella or filly wanted to toss a couple of dollars down on a horse...that was available, too.

Of course, I wouldn't know a thing about that...


paulie

Saturday, May 3, 2014

Saturday Cardinal Couple -- HAPPY DERBY DAY!!!







HAPPY DERBY DAY! . We wish the best of luck and good fortunes to our lacrosse and softball squads today. And to you also...whether you are going to the track, a Derby Party, watching on TV or just thinking fondly of Louisville, KY on this first Saturday in May.



"And to see 20 horses, charging out of the starting gate...while 150,000 people scream for the event, the occasion, their horse...or just to be screaming...is one of the most exciting parts of the greatest two minutes in sports."


HOW DID PAULIE DO ON OAKS DAY? A PROFIT OF $106. I BET A $1 EXACTA AND $1 TRIFECTA ON ALL SIX STAKES RACES. THIS COST A TOTAL OF $216. I COLLECTED A TOTAL OF $322.

I HIT THE RACE SIX EXACTA $30.90 AND TRIFECTA $116.60. I HIT THE RACE NINE EXACTA $37.50. I HIT THE TENTH RACE EXACTA $40.70. FINALLY, I HAD THE ELEVENTH RACE EXACTA $11.00 AND TRIFECTA $88.20.

I GOT HOME WITH $40 LESS THAN I LEFT WITH. AFTER ADMISSION FOR SONJA AND I AND FOOD AND BEVERAGES. WE HAD A GREAT TIME WITH TOMMY BOY, BIG LINDA, MONDO VENDO, JO-JO AND SAM I AM IN THE INFIELD. OTHERS STOPPED BY TO SEE US BY THE CEDAR TREE NEXT TO THE BACK OF THE PATH THAT CIRCLES THE INFIELD.  IT WAS A BIT CLOUDY AND CHILLY DAY BUT WE HAD BIG FUN AND WE'LL BE BACK THERE NEXT YEAR AS WELL.

AND NOW...YOUR DERBY STAKES RACES PICKS:


KENTUCKY DERBY STAKES RACES PICKS

THE CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE  RACE 6

Paulie:

#9 Centre Court handles these with ease today. #1 Tapicat is there to battle  #3 Miz Ida for second and #2 Coffee Clique could run a big one and challenge for pace money.

Sonja:

#7 Ready Signal is my longshot special. Whether she can pull the upset off over a very good #9 Centre Court remains to be seen, but that's the way I'm betting. I'll take #6 I'm Already Sexy for third place.


THE HUMANA DISTAFF  RACE 7

Paulie:

# 8 Midnight Lucky and #3 Judy The Beauty will hit the wire noses apart and #5 Scherzinger won't be far back. #6 Iotapa could hit the board for show also.

Sonja:

I'll agree with #8 Midnight Lucky and #3 Judy The Beauty looking like the exacta combination but don't count out #2 Heart Stealer with Johnny V. on board. #6 Iotapa completes the superfecta.


THE AMERICAN TURF  RACE 8

Paulie:

#7 Big Bazinga got scratched and that was my top pick.#5 Global View, #8 Storming Inti, #10 Picozza and #11 Woodfield Springs all look like they could hit the line first in this very tough field.

Sonja:

#1 Cleburne could blow up the mutuals and he has a win on this track. I also like #8 Storming Inti, #5 Global View and #8 Storming Inti.


THE CHURCHILL DOWNS  RACE 9

Paulie:

#10 Delaunay is 4 for 4 at Churchill and that's my top pick. I do see #11 Shakin It Up, #4 Sahara Sky and # 9 Central Banker making it interesting...


Sonja:

#2 Clearly Now will love it here and pass all of these in the stretch. Horses he'll be running by are #10 Delaunay, #11 Shakin It Up and #7 River Bear.


THE WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC    RACE 10


Paulie:


#1 Wise Dan is my best bet of the day. A monster. #5 Kaigun and #10 Seek Again are there to challenge and will complete the top three. WISE DAN IS A MONSTER! 


Sonja:


After Will Take Charge got upset yesterday...anything can happen. I'll look to beat the "monster" with # 5 Kaigun, #7 Boisterous and #3 Guys Reward.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY    RACE 11


Paulie:

It's probably #5 California Chrome's race to lose...but I'll go after him with #12 Dance With Fate, #7 We Miss Artie and #15 Tapiture.

Sonja:

I agree about #5 Califonia Chrome but I will try and beat him with #20 Wicked Strong, #19 Ride On Curlin and #16 Intense Holiday.


GOOD LUCK DERBY DAY AND WAGER RESPONSIBLY.

paulie and sonja





paulie




Friday, May 2, 2014

Friday is OAKS DAY!



Could this be Thurby? Works for me...
Thurby has come and gone. It will be remembered fondly. What I can remember about it...that is. Betting wise, I was on a definite roll and Tommy Boy and I hooked up to hit the Pick 5 in that put an additional $230 each in our pockets. We spend a combined $36 to win $466.

I gave you my picks yesterday. There were some scratches, so I filled in accordingly. I decided to bet a four horse exacta box in each of the 11 races. Here's how I did.

Race One   $41.80
Race Two   $20.40
Race Three $14.80  (I also bet a PK3 here that paid $35.00
Race Four   $231.00
Race Five   - - - - - - (Can't win 'em all...)
Race Six      $11.60
Race Seven  $65.20
Race Eight   $18.20
Race Nine    $36.60
Race Ten     $138.20
Race Eleven $9.00

It was a good day! $132 wagered on exactas, almost $600 collected.

We hung out over in the new section just built on the homestretch turn. It will be a regular spot for
me this Spring Meet. Comfy chairs, great view of the track and new projection board and easy access to betting, bathrooms, beverages and food. It's ticketed admission today...so I'll be Infield bound...

Here are the Picks for Oaks Day. I just did the Stakes Races...there are six of those...and Sonja isn't going to decide on her picks until we get there...she's been busy with work and has had no time to handicap.

Race 5 -- The La Troienne.

With only six runners here...I'm using a key race that two of these were in earlier this year #3 Unlimited Budget finished second and #5 Devil's Cake was third by a half a length. These two look the best to me and I'll add #4 Magic Union and #6 On Fire Baby for exotics.

Race 6 -- The Twin Spires Turf Sprint

Three of these faced up at Keenland three weeks ago and #4 Marchman bested #8 Sum of the Parts and #6 Positive Side. I'll try those three today and add #2 Undrafted who won on the turf at Churchill by 10 lengths last year.

Race 8 -- The Eight Belles

#7 Fiftyshadesofgold was actually my early pick to win the Oaks after winning the Debutante here last year. She didn't get an Oaks chance but I like her today in this spot. I'll use #4 Our Amazing Rose, #1 Whomping Willow and #10 She's a Tiger as well.

Race 9 -- The Edgewood

#10 Resistivitity hated the polytrack at Keeneland last out but should love Churchill's turf and get Julian Leparoux to ride. That'll be my pick. #4 Candy Kitten, #1 Miss Machiavelli and #2 Courageous Julie will be ready if Leparoux fails.

Race 10 -- The Alysheba

#2 Will Take Charge is the best bet of the day.  #3 Mylute, #7 Golden Ticket and #9 Bradester will battle it out for place money.

Race 11 -- The Kentucky Oaks

Everyone is in love with #13 Untapable and I like her too but I think #3 Sugar Shock can upset her today. I'll toss in #4 Rosiland and #7 Fashion Plate for exotics. If I decide to go deep here...I'll also include #11 My Miss Sophia and #9 Unbridled Forever. These all may be running for second place if Untapable runs her race...but we've definitely seen upsets in the Oaks over the years and Untapable has never won a Grade 1 event.

I'm hoping Untapable is Baylor and Sugar Shock is the Louisville women's basketball team.  

 Oaks Day. Wager responsibly. Good luck and have fun!

paulie




Thursday, May 1, 2014

The Thursday Card at Churchill Selections



Someone came up with the questionable idea to call Thursday at Churchill Downs on Derby Week Thurby.

Really?

I get the premise. Thursday. Derby week. Thurby.

 Madam I'm Adam...where's my wine?

We were talking about the moniker yesterday. We also came up with some other possible 'Thurby' explanations:

- A cartoon character or mascot. Big, dumb and stupid. Like me.

- One of the calls my mockingbird makes in the back-yard. "Thurby...thruby...thurby".

- A young kid with no front teeth asking for a drink of water. "Dabby? I'm thurby!"

- What you get when you combine Thad and Herbie.

- A prospective field hockey recruit from a wealthy family. "Well, Thurby is considering Bucknell, Vassar, Brown and Yale as her college choices. Academics are so important when trying to become a doctor...and we ruled out state universities early on..."

OK. Stop it.

Thurby (ugh) is Louisville's Day at the races. Over 100,000 will jam their way into Churchill at $10 a head (or more) and watch 11 races. There are no stakes races today. Plenty of time for that on Friday and Saturday...

Paulie will be out there with Tommy Boy and possibly Mondo Vendo. I've done my handicapping and I'm ready to attack. Today, I'll try a few excatas, trifectas and maybe a PK3 or PK4 or two. The card is not all that impressive and the fields are short early. It'll be a good chance to see how the track is playing, though. Is it fast? Are speed horses winning? How about closers? Is the rail alive? These are a few things I'll be looking for. I've listed my top three picks for each race and a longshot special below them.  The top three are in no particular order...just post position...Good luck if you go, look me up (I'll be wandering around) and wager responsibly.

RACE 1

Metro Dreamer (1)
Gauntlet (2)
LA Freeway (7)
One Tango Charlie (6)

RACE 2

Hazard of Love (1)
Slick Pardoned Me (3)
Broome Street (5)
Pedrolino (2)

RACE 3

Little Willie (1)
Zak Benate (4)
Pocket Medal (7)
Reason To Believe (8)

RACE 4

Indian Red (2)
Column (6)
Seal Team Four (7)
Risky Asset (4)

RACE 5
Candy Crush (2)
Stella Cavallo (4)
Queen Daenebys (9)
Sylvan Light (6)

RACE 6

Wild Target (1)
Calmer Than You (4)
Doc Almon (5)
Montezuma Express (6)

RACE 7

Rack 'Em Carl (1)
Haldor (3)
Barry Shortpants (5)
This One's for Tony (8)

RACE 8

Utley (1)
Regally Ready (4)
Bradester (9)
Burn The Mortgage (7)

RACE 9

BackOff Buddy (2)
Caballo Del Cielo (5)
Justa Runner (3)
Mean Marine (7)

RACE 10

Jack Milton (2)
Joes Blazing (5)
Silver Freak (13)
Cozzetti (9)

RACE 11

Iron King (2)
Courtmaster (6)
Impassable Canyon (7)
Moon Back More (3)