Churchill Downs results 6/28/20

Let's compare yesterday's handicapping results to a classroom's chalkboard. 

Plenty of chalk until the end of the day, then the eraser came out. 

I took on the four stakes races (8-11) at the Twin Spires and gave you 16 horses to consider. 

Out of those, I had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. That's a 50% "in the money percentage -- a good day. Out of the 12 "payable" slots available, I hit 66% of them.  The balloon popper, blackboard eraser came in the final race -- Race 11 -- where 11-1 long-shot Harvey's Lil Goil  held off my picks in a close stretch duel to win. 

Prices were pretty chalky.

I had Cazadero in Race 8 as my top pick, he looked very impressive in the win over six furlongs and paid $2.80...going off at 2/5 odds. He won The Bashford Manor Stakes for fun. 

Race 9 belonged to Midnight Bisou -- who put the field away in the stretch to win easily. Another top pick of mine, that paid $3.00 to win as the 1/2 favorite in The Fleur De Lis. 

Tom's D Etat showed why he is maybe the best of the older horses with his convincing win in the feature race -- The Stephen Foster. The payout was a little better....at 6/5 he returned $4.60 to bettors. 

Then, the eraser. The #10 held off the others in an exciting stretch run to win by a head. in Race 11.  #5, Crystal Cliffs -- my top pick, tried vainly to get through on the inside hedge to pass winner Harvey's Lil Goil in the final furlong on the turf -- but just failed in The Regret. 

So it goes.

I stressed "going deep" in the final of the day -- outlined seven possible horses -- and it turns out I ran second, third, fourth and fifth. No prize for that. 

The Pick 4 paid a paltry $45.35 , with the multitude of early odds on winners. I can only imagine that if favorite Crystal Cliffs had won, it would have been much, much lower.  To use a worn-out saying here...we can pick winners but we can't pick what we get paid. 

The Pick 5 payout was a bit better...$298.60 on the /50 cent wager. 

The Pick 6 got you $148.16 on the .20 cent venture.

Yeah, I know. Maybe the "all button" in Race 11 would have been the call, but, the wager I laid out yesterday was already $84 and putting up another $70 to get back $45 would have been over a $100 loss on a winning ticket. 

We'll give 'em a shot next Saturday. 



paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Selections -- 6/27/20

An absolutely HUGE day of racing awaits at the ol' Twin Spires today with (4) Stakes races and a great under-card as well.

The stakes races run from Races 8-11, so let's look at those with some selections and see if we can pick a few winners. That sequence also happens to be the late Pick 4, so -- why not? -- let's give it a try. 

If scratches occur, I'll pop back in with updates, so be sure to check back if that happens. 


RACE 8 -- BASHFORD MANOR STAKES -- (GIII) -- $100K -- SIX FURLONGS

6 -- CAZADERO
3 -- GATSBY
4 -- HYPERFOCUS
2 -- HULEN



RACE 9 -- FLEUR DE LIS STAKES -- (GII) -- $200K -- 1-1/16TH MILES

5 -- MIDNIGHT BISOU
4 -- SERENGETI EMPRESS
1 -- GO GOOGLE YOURSELF
7 -- MOTION EMOTION 



RACE 10 -- SYTEPHEN FOSTER STAKES -- (GII) -- $500K -- 1-1/8TH MILES

5 -- TOM'S D ETAT
6 -- BY MY STANDARDS
8 -- OWENDALE
1 -- FEARLESS



RACE 11 -- REGRET STAKES -- (GII) -- $100K -- 1-18TH MILES (TURF) 

5 -- CRYSTAL CLIFFS
4 -- IN GOOD SPIRITS
12 -- PASS THE PLATE
1 -- DOMINGA


Pick 4 strategy: 

Race 8 looks to be an affair where I see four horses that I think could win. They're my top four picks,so...let's use them .. 2,3,4,6

Race 9 looks like a two horse race (Midnight Bisou and Serengeti Empress) but I'm adding Paul McGee's GO GOOGLE YOURSELF to the mix. He's 7 times in the money at Churchill in nine attempts and regular jock Brian Hernandez, Jr rides.  Let's go 1,4,5.

Race 10 also looks to be a two-horse contest with Tom's D Etat and By My Standards. Corey Lanerie, who always does well at Churchill is the new rider on By My Standards. If you want to go deep, maybe consider Owendale and Fearless, but I'm sticking with the top two I mentioned....they just seem to be a step above the others.  5,6 are the two I'll use. 

Race 11 is a wide open three-year old filly affair on the turf. Most of these haven't been a mile and an eighth in their careers, so I see it as very competitive. I'll go deep for the finale...using my top four picks and adding:  9 -- Eve of War, 3 -- Stunning Sky, 6 --  Micheline and see how it goes.   Let's play 1,3,4,5,6,9,12. 

Total cost:  $84


Good luck today, play 'em however you want.


paulie
xxxxx

Belmont and Churchill Results 6/20/20

I handicapped five stakes races and an allowance race at Churchill and Belmont yesterday, including the Belmont Stakes. The Belmont Stakes, altered this year to a one-turn, 1-1/8th mile contest, proved to be an outcome that many predicted -- Tiz The Law stayed behind the pace set by Tap It To Win....drew even with that one at the top of the stretch and almost effortless pulled away from the field to win by about four lengths. I'm happy for the Sackatoga Stables ownership group...and "Tiz" did what he had to do to capture the win in an eerie, ghost town like Belmont Race Track setting. He paid $3.60 to win

On the day, I gave you 24 selections. There were some scratches, so I had to do a little bit of readjustment of my picks. It's always a good idea to check back here at the site to see if I had to do that. It produced a winner for us in Belmont Race 7. When Noble Jewel was scratched out of the race, I inserted Speightstown Gal as a replacement. She took the seventh race, holding off a hard-charging Light In The Sky. A $2 win wager got you a $11.20 return

Overall, on my picks, I had six winners, a second and three thirds. That's a 41% "in the money percentage. When you consider that there were 18 possible win, place or show slots to be filled...that 10 for 18 comes out to 56%. I'll take it. 

Maybe the most impressive race of the day at Belmont was Race 8, the Grade I Acorn. Gamine absolutely blew away the field to win by 18 3/4th lengths in the mile race and set a new stakes record for the race. You have to wonder if trainer Bob Baffert is now eyeing the final two legs of the Triple Crown for this awesome three-year old filly? These weren't $10K claimers that Gamine beat. Jockey John Velazquez probably wouldn't mind, right? She paid $3.60 to win. 

Race 9 saw another impressive filly win the Grade I Jaipur. Oleksandra beat the boys in the six furlong turf affair. Jockey Joel Rosario got her to the wire just in time to catch and pass long-shot Kanthaka at the wire. She paid $6.50 to win on the $2 venture. 


At Churchill, Race 6 -- the Audubon Stakes --  went to Field Pass. This one was our top selection for the 1-1/8th test on the turf. A $5 win payout on the odds-on 3/2 favorite

Race 9 -- the Wise Dan, a Grade II Stakes, saw Factor This finish first in the 1-1/16th turf contest.. The even money odds on this favorite got you a $4 payout on a $2 wager. Another top selection here. 

Out of the six races selected, my top pick for the race won three of the six. My second selection won two of the six and my late selection after scratches in the seventh race at Belmont also won. Coincidentally, that was largest payout on the day 

The Pick 4 at Belmont   (12-1-2-8)   paid $70 on the .50 cent wager.  I know, that's low for a Pick Four, but, as I've said here many a time, to quote the late Scott Harris -- "we can pick winners, but we can't pick what we get paid."  

I chased that Pick 4 at Belmont and hit it. In what I considered a wide open Race 7, I took all four of my picks. In Race 8, I narrowed it down to three horses and had the winner. Race 9 looked like a two-horse race to me, and I fortunately picked the right two. I saw the Belmont Stakes as a two-horse race also. Tiz The Law and Tap It To Win were the two. 

The .50 cent, $24 wager on the Pick 4 got me a small profit of $46, which I'll gladly accept, given all "the chalk" that was on the blackboard in New York yesterday.   I'm glad I didn't chase exactas at either track. I did try trifectas, though, at Churchill... which wasn't too wise. I ran first and third in each race. So, those two $1 -- $24 "boxes" of my top four picks lost me the $48 I wagered.. It wiped out my Belmont profits and I lost $2 on the day, all bets considered.  

I looked at Uncle Gregory for a very long time in Churchill Race 7. Out of Uncle Mo and with Corey Lanerie on board, I couldn't figure out why he was 28-1 on the tote board. I thought he rated a chance to hit the board. But, unfortunately, I didn't put down a wager. As fate would have it, he won and paid $58.20 to win. 

(that sound you just heard was me kicking myself...) 

A huge card at Churchill next Saturday, so I'll tackle that next week. 


Happy Father's Day! 


paulie
xxxxx

Belmont and Churchill Downs Selections -- 6/20/20

We're going to split it up a bit today and look at the five stakes races between the two tracks. 


BELMONT PARK 

RACE 8 -- THE ACORN -- 300K -- GRADE I -- 1 MILE

4 -- CASUAL
1 -- GAMINE
2 -- LUCREZIA
7 -- PERFECT ALIBI


RACE 9 -- THE JAIPUR -- 250K -- GRADE I -- 6 FURLONGS (TURF) 

4 -- PURE SENSATION
2 -- OLEKSANDRA
5 -- STUBBINS
6 -- HIDDEN SCROLL


RACE 10 -- BELMONT STAKES

8 -- TIZ THE LAW
1 -- TAP IT TO WIN
6 -- FORE LEFT
10 -- PNEUMATIC

( A Pick 4 starts in Race 7, if you want to play it, my picks for Race 7 are): 

8 -- MY SASSY SARAH
4 -- STRONGERTHANUKNOW
6 -- Noble Jewel   (SCRATCHED)
10 -- LIGHT IN THE SKY
12 -- SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL


********************************************************************************************



CHURCHILL DOWNS


RACE 6 -- AUDUBON STAKES -- 100K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 

6 -- FIELD PASS
8 -- SUMMER TO REMEMBER
4 -- PIXELATE
2 -- SPANISH KINGDOM (SCRATCHED)
7 -- KINENOS


RACE 9 -- THE WISE DAN -- 200K -- GRADE II -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)


3 -- FACTOR THIS
7 -- MARCH TO THE ARCH
11 -- PARLOR
5 -- AQUAPHOBIA


Betting strategies for the day? Probably just exactas. Bet 'em anyway you like, and good luck! 




paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Downs Results From 6/13/20

A good day for racing but the results left a bit to be desired,  as I took on the late Pick 4 at Churchill yesterday. Favorites fell by the wayside in each of the final four (8-11) races and that resulted in the whopping $5625 payout for the .50 late Pick Four.

No, I didn't have it.

On the day, we did have some successes. Out of the 16 horses I gave you Saturday, we had two winners, four seconds and two thirds. That's eight out of 16 "in the money" for a not bad at all 50% percentage. When you consider that there were 12 payouts in the four races for win, place and show wagering, I filled 66% of them. 

Race Eight at least got us off on the right foot when #2 Dance Rhythms came flying at the end to best the field and won for us at 11-1 odds. A nice $23 payout. (That finished an earlier Pick 3 I tried and hit that returned a sweet $250 for $32 invested). 

Race Nine got me, though. The #10 horse Sir Alfred Jones zipped by one of my picks, Major Attraction, to finish first and return $18.80 at 8-1 odds. Bye-bye Pick 4.

Race Ten produced another bomb when lightly regarded (by the bettors) Sconsin upset the field with a win at 20-1 odds, paying $41 to win. Miss T Two, one of my picks chased her home but could not catch her. 

Race 11 at least gave us a winner, when #12 Admissions Office beat odds-on favorite Arklow to capture the final. A $9.20 return to win at 4-1 odds in the Grade III Louisville Stakes. 

The Belmont Stakes next week, so I'll definitely have picks for that. I'll see if a Pick 4 can be built around it,and I'll check out what should be a good Churchill card and see if I want to fire at that also.  

See you then, 



paulie
xxxxx 

Churchill Downs Selections 6/13/20

A challenging slate of races on a chamber of commerce day weather forecast for Churchill Downs today. The late Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and culminates with the Louisville Stakes (a Grade II affair) in Race 11. 

Two contests on the turf and two optional claiming events, along with a maiden claiming race and the stakes race make the late Pick 4 a bit of a challenge, but, after handicapping the runners -- here are Paulie's Picks. 


RACE 8 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $62,000 -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS -- (TURF) 

1 -- DIXIEINCANDYLAND
11 -- QUEEN OF SHADES
6 -- HIDDEN FACTS
2 -- DANCE RHYTHMS



RACE 9 -- MAIDEN CLAIMING -- $50,000 -- SIX FURLONGS

1 -- MAJOR ATTRACTION
6 -- SHANGHAI'S DREAM
8 -- COMPANY CLOWN
2 -- BUBBA CABALLO



RACE 10 -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $75,000 -- 6-1/2 FURLONGS

5 -- SCOLDING
10 -- SHE CAN'T SING
1 -- MISS T TOO
2 -- FIGURE OF SPEECH



RACE 11 -- LOUISVILLE STAKES -- GRADE II -- $100,000 -- 1-1/2 MILE  (TURF) 

12 -- ADMISSIONS OFFICE
5 -- ARKLOW
3 -- APRECIADO
6 -- TIZ A STAR


Good luck on the card today. 

(Our buddy, trainer Matt Kordenbrock, has one in the third race...#1 - TIMELY MISS -- a five year old mare he claimed back in October 2019. She hasn't done much in two starts since then and is a morning line 20-1. i can't recommend today -- even though blinkers are being added. Two double digit defeats don't inspire confidence and there are much better in this $10K claiming affair -- so I'm going to pass.

Betting Strategy for the late Pick 4: 

I have had a pretty good week so far, hitting the late Pick 4's Thursday and Friday, so I'm not going to change strategy until I get beat. I'm still pretty far "up" for the meet, so let's spend a little of the "other bettors" money I've won and see if we can take the late Pick 4 down. 

Race 8 -- 1,2,5,11
Race 9 -- 1,6,8,9
Race 10 -- 1,2,5,10
Race 11 -- 3,5,12

Total Cost: $96



paulie
xxxxx

Churchill Results from 6/6/20

A good day for handicapping Churchill's final four races Saturday. The prices weren't great, I guess that means there are a lot of brilliant handicappers out there in addition to me, but I hit the Pick 4, and that beats losing it. 

Our owner "tout" on #3 Noble Companion in the fifth race turned out to be unhelpful. The past performances indicated that he hadn't been performing well in the last several races, so the good workouts lately may indicate he's one of those "brilliant in the morning, mediocre in the afternoon" runners. He broke well, was third after about two furlongs but started to back up after that and was no factor by the time they reached the turn in the six furlong race. He finished 10th out of 11...went off at 36-1 odds and the trainer change does not appear to have helped at this level or conditions. I suspect the owners and trainer will look for easier conditions for him next time out, but, they need to keep him "short" and interested. Anytime a horse backs up that badly indicates either injury suspicion, lack of talent or lack of interest. I hope "Noble" is OK and hope they can figure out how to get him competitive. 

On the Pick 4, I gave you a total of 19 horses to consider. Out of these, we had four winners, four seconds and three thirds. That's a very good 57% "in the money" percentage. When you consider that we captured 11 of the 12 "payable positions, that's a 91% success rate! 

My top selection in each of the four races resulted in  three of the four winners., My third pick captured one of the races (Race 9), Upon review, he probably should have been my top pick, but, I had hoped for better from the ones I picked over him. 

Volatile left them in his wake in the Race 8 Aristides Stakes. Proof he's one of the best sprinters out there, he nearly broke the track record for six furlongs. $3 payout to win

High Crimes won by daylight in race 9. Watch this one in future turf sprints! $5.80 to win

Four Graces led pretty much wire to wire in taking The Dogwood Stakes in Race 10. You got $6.80 on the win here. 

Queen Medb finished full of run to take the final. A $7.80 payout on the win. 

The Pick 4 paid $51.45 on the .50 cent wager. Low, yes, but as we have said many times here before,..we can pick the winners, but we can't pick what we get paid. 


See ya next Saturday

paulie
xxxxx 

Churchill Downs Selections 6/6/20

A fine day of racing, although pretty hot and humid, in store for Churchill today. We'll look at the Late Pick 4 (races 8-11) which involves two stakes races, a high level allowance race and high level maiden special weight. 


RACE 8 -- ARISTIDES STAKES -- 1OOK -- SIX FURLONGS


6 -- VOLATILE
1 -- MANNY WAH
2 -- HONEST MISCHIEF
4 -- BOBBY'S WICKED ONE 



RACE 9 -- ALLOWANCE -- 81K -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) 


3 -- IKEISGREAT
6 -- JOHNNY VALENTINE
5 -- HIGH CRIMES
10 -- ALFIE SOLOMON



RACE 10 -- DOGWOOD STAKES -- 100K (G III) -- SEVEN FURLONGS

2 -- FOUR GRACES
8 -- EDGEWAY
5 -- MAGIC DANCE
3 -- BAYERNESS



RACE 11 -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 79K -- 1-1/8TH MILE (TURF) 


8 -- QUEEN MEDB
3 -- SPORTN'FOLLY 
7 -- GOLDEN LOCH
4 -- STAND TALL



I got a owner tip yesterday on a horse in the 5th race I'll share with you. NOBLE COMPANION runs out of Matt Kordenbrock's stable and the word is the works have been pretty awesome, including two "bullet's" in his last four. He's morning line 12-1, so I'll look at taking a chance with him. He's shortening up to six furlongs and jockey Albin Jimenez is good at getting them out fast out of the gate. 

In tackling today's Pick 4, I'm considering taking my top four picks in Race 8 in the first leg, my top four picks in Race 9, plus #4 Ace Destroyer in the second leg. I'm going with just Four Graces and Edgeway in Race 10 and going deep in Race 11, my top four picks plus #1 Urbana and #6 Fate Factor.  

1,2,4,6
3,4,5,6,10
2,8
1,3,4,6,7,8

It's a $120 .50 cent ticket, but since I'm playing on their money, it's doable for me. 

Play 'em anyway you like and good luck today!  

Sunday Churchill Results 5/30/20

An interesting day at the twin Spires on Sunday. I outlined my top four choices in the final six races at Churchill, a total of 24 picks. 

Out of those, I had three winners, four seconds and four thirds. That's a 46% "in the money" number. Out of 18 possible payout possibilities, I had 61% of them. 

Winners were: 

Paris Lights (Race 5) 
Whoville (Race 6)
Royal Flag (Race 9) 

Unfortunately, the Pick 3's I tried did not hit. Connection almost got there in race 7, finishing second in a Pick 3 that paid $73 on the .50 cent wager. 

The Pick 5 paid $3590 on a .50 cent wager. The Pick 6 was a payout of $20,563. 

If you had put a $2 WPS on all of my 24 picks, your cost would have been $144. You would received a payout of $94. I know, that's not great, but, in the words of the late Scott Harris..."we can pick the horses, but we can't pick how much we'll get back." 

Pick 6 winning numbers:  

3-10-7-1-2-5

We'll give it a go Saturday. A huge card at Belmont and a nice card at Churchill. I try to stay "local" when I can when handicapping, but, I may make an exception and present Belmont picks Saturday. I haven't decided yet. I'm still showing a profit at Churchill and overall at all tracks with my selections since I re-assumed posting my picks back on Feb 15th.....so let's keep playing with "their" money, right? 


Stay safe

paulie
xxxxx