Gulfstream Results 1-30-21

 I chased the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Saturday and caught it. It was an interesting day of racing in South Florida and the payout was a bit lower than I wanted (isn't  that always the case?) but we'll go back to Paulie's Theory #2 which states that I pick winners here but I can't pick what they'll pay. 

On the day I outlined 20 horses over the four races that I thought might be contenders. Out of those, I had four winners, three seconds and three thirds. That's a 50% Troubleing Moon "in the money percentage. I also "filled" 10 of the 12 payable spots, for a 83.4% success rate. 

IN RACE 9, the odds-on favorite Zaajel lived up to the hype and the faith of the bettor, having no problem winning at 3/5 odds. I also got another one my picks in for second (Lady Traveler) but the exacta paid a paltry $8.70 on the $1 exacta bet. 

IN RACE 10, it was White Frost making a big stretch run to zip by Con Lima and Domain Expertise to get the win at 9/2. I has all three my picks, the exacta returning $16.50 and the trifecta good for $59.25.

IN RACE 11, my top pick Greatest Honor easily handled the field at 5/2 odds and my second pick Prime Factor managed to stay up for third. That gave me the Pick 3, but it returned a disappointing $22.15 on the .50 wager. Greatest Honor probably has to be considered one of the favorites for the upcoming Florida Derby with that performance in the Holy Bull. 

IN RACE 12, we had the most exciting race of the four race sequence. Blameless nosed-out Troubling Moon at the wire to get the win. I had both and also had the third place finisher Fig Jelly. The exacta returned $60.30, the trifecta $204.05, the Pick 3 $81.00 and the Pick 4 $184.10. It was a good way to end the day of wagering and handicapping. 

                                                           ***********************

The play I suggested yesterday, both Pick 3's and the Pick 4 were worth $287.25. and cost $225 to get there, so the profit of $64 was better than taking a bath on the day but a little less than I expected. 

We'll give it a go next week. 

paulie                                                                                                                                                            xxxxx

Gulfstream Picks -- 1/30/21

 A nice day of racing at Gulfstream today that features the three-year-olds in the late stakes races. Two fillies stakes, the Road to the Kentucky Derby Holy Bull Stakes and a wide open claiming affair make up the final four on the late four, final card today. Two turf and two on the dirt. 

In the Holy Bull, let's not forget Tiz the Law won the race last year and Audible did a couple of years back -- so the race can be a "one to watch" when assessing Kentucky Derby hopefuls. Here we go!  

RACE 9 -- FORWARD GAL STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- SEVEN FURLONGS

7 -- ZAAJEL

2 -- THREE TIPSY  CHICKS

3 -- COMPETITIVE SPEED

6 -- LADY TRAVELER

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 8 -- JER'S JOY)

RACE 10 -- SWEETEST CHANT STAKES -- GIII -- 100K -- 1 MILE (TURF) 

6 -- DOMAIN EXPERTISE

4 -- CON LIMA

2 -- HONEY PANTS

8 -- DIRECTOR'S CUT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 5 -- WHITE FOREST)

RACE 11 -- HOLY BULL -- GIII -- 200K -- 1-1/16TH MILE 

7 -- GREATEST HONOR

6 -- PRIME FACTOR

8 -- SITTING ON GO 

2 -- WILLIE BOI 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 1 -- JIRAFALES) 

RACE 12 -- CLAIMING -- 35K -- ONE MILE (TURF) 

5 -- TUSK

6 -- TROUBLING MOOM

10 -- FIG JELLY

11 -- BLAMELESS 

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR -- 4 -- FINANCIAL SYSTEM) 

THE PLAYS: 

I'm going to try a couple of Pick 3's today and a late Pick Four. 

In the Pick Threes: 

I'll start it out with all four picks in Race 9, followed by all four picks, plus my "scratch" pick in Race 10 and narrow it down to my top three in Race 11 -- Gretest Honor, Prime Factor and Sitting On Go. 

2,3,6,7/2,4 5,6.8/ 6,7,8

Cost for the .50 Pick 3:  $30 

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I'll try another Pick 3 starting in Race 10, with the five horses from my first Pick 3, go with the same three from Race 11 and go deep in Race 12 with my top four, plus adding in  4- Financial System and 8 - Harbor Master. 

2,4,5,6,8/ 6.7.8./4.5.6.8,10,11

Cost for this Pick3 :  $45

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I'll also offer this Pick 4: 

2,3,6,7/2,4,5,6.8/ 6.7.8/ 4,5,6,10,11

Cost for the .50 cent Pick 4:  $150

That's puts me just a little over $200 for the day ($225) and gives me some nice options. I can afford to do it, since I'm still riding on my 2020 profits. Play 'em however you like,,,  Good luck today! 

paulie

Pegasus World Cup Results -- 1/23/21

 An "OK" day for handicapping yesterday at Gulfstream in the Pegasus World Cup Day Late Pick 4 picks 

I gave you a total of 16 picks in the final four races, had three winners and three seconds. Although we did not take down the Pick 4 -- Race Nine ruined our chances there when the longest shot on the board took the Inside Info States -- I did have the Late Pick 3 and two exactas.  The overall "in the money numbers" were lower than I like -- 37.5%, but six "payables out of 12 possible spots gave me a 50% number. 

Race 9 was the spoiler...my top pick Thistimemytime couldn't hold off stretch runner and 16-1 longshot Pacific Gate in the final furlong and came in second. 

Race 10 was a winner, Tide Of The Sea got a great eide from Tyler Gaffalione to get the win and rewarded me with a $10 payout at 4-1 odds. 

Race 11 had my top two picks, Largent and Colonel Liam crossing the wire first and second in the Pegasus World Cup Turf event. The "Colonel" went off at 5-2, and paid $7 to win, the 5-6 exactas was good for $28.20.

Race 12 was a fun one to watch Knicks Go destroy the field in the stretch as the favorite. I gave you Jesus' Team as a pick also and this one ran second to give me a 4-5 exacta worth $43. The Pick3 also hit for me and returned $51,50. 

I did not show a profit for the four-race sequence, though.  The killer was the loss of the Pick 4, which put me $96 in the hole. I came came with a late Pick three which cost $32 and paid $51.50. I also played exactas in Races 11 and 12 won just $4.20 on the winner in Race 11 and won $27 on the exacta  in Race 12. 

I really liked Colonel Liam and Knicks Go in the final two races, along with Largent and Code Of Honor, so I invested $25 win wager on each. That $100 outlay brought back $145, so a profit there. 

A total wagering outlay of  $276 on the day, a return of $223. That's the way it goes some days. As I said so many times here, we can pick winners, but we can't pick what we get paid.  A $53 "bath" on the day -- dipping a bit into the profits I made in 2020. 

A follower did hit the Pick 4 for $613 on the .50 cent wager and did it by going "all" in Race 9 and then using three horses each in the final three races. That cost $108, so a nice profit return there. Sometimes, that's the key in races you can't come up with a clear two or three horses to use.

 Just hit the "all" button. 

It can be costly if you lose further in the sequence, but, at least you've guaranteed you'll still be alive, especially if it's in the first race of the sequence. 

I'll strive to do better next week. I'm not a huge fan of Gulfstream, but will give a shout out to jockey Tyler Gaffalione down there. He had four wins and two thirds on the card. Anytime you can go for a "four-bagger" against the cream of New York Racing jockeys and more...that's quite the feat. 

--paulie-- 

PEGASUS WORLS CUP PICKS -- JAN 23rd

 Hey! It's time to get back into the Saturday Paulie Picks and I get started with the big day of stakes racing at Gulfstream today on Pegasus World Cup Day! 

Let's try to start 2021 off with a bang, I'm going after the Late Pick 4. Some really good racing today at Gulfstream, I've handicapped the runners, checked out the angles and made my picks,  so let's go !! 

RACE 9 -- INSIDE INFO STAKES -- GII -- SEVEN FURLONGS -- $200K 

4 -- THISTIMEMYTIME

2 -- CINNABUNNY

7 -- SALLY'S CROWN

3 -- BRONX BEAUTY

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR:  1 -- DREAM MARIE) 

RACE 10 -- WL MCKNIGHT STAKES -- GIII -- 1-1/2 MILE (TURF) -- $150K

8 -- SIR ANTHONY

5 -- SADLER'S JOY

7 -- TIDE OF THE SEA

11 -- CHANNEL CAT

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 1--DOSWELL) 

RACE 11 -- PEGASUS WORLD CUP TURF -- GI -- 1-3/16TH MILE (TURF) -- $1 MILLION

5 -- LARGENT

5 -- COLONEL LIAM

12 -- SOCIAL PARANOIA

11 -- SAY THE WORD

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 2-- BREAKING THE RULES) 

RACE 12 -- PEGASUS WORLD CUP -- GI -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- $3 MILLION 

4 -- KNICKS GO

10 -- CODE OF HONOR

7 -- TAX

5 -- JESUS' TEAM

(IF SCRATCHES OCCUR: 8-- HARPER'S FIRST RIDE) 

**********   I'll try to get back in here and adjust the picks if needed if scratches occur, so be sure to check back as race time for Race 9 approaches -- around 3:40 p.m. EST **********

THE PLAY: 

I'll take all four picks in Race 9 and do the same in Race 10. One could try and shorten up in Race 11 with just Largent and Colonel Liam, but I'm going to respect the "outside" runners and add Socail Paranoia and Say The Word. In the final, Race 12, I see it as a three horse race: I'll play Knicks Go, Code of Honor and Tax.

PICK 4 --  COST $96

2,3,4,7 / 5,7,8,11 / 5,6,11,12 / 4,7,10

I'm cruising into this one with the ample profit I built in 2020, so let's hope the luck continues and we start 2021 off with a score! 

paulie