She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

She's a Handicapper now..and I'm saying "Champagne, Anyone?"

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Preakness thoughts

As of Monday, it appeared a field of 12 would be entered in the Preakness on Wednesday, when posts will be drawn for the 1 3/16-mile race. Neither Country House, declared the winner of the Derby, nor Maximum Security, disqualified from victory in the Derby, are in the field, but there are plenty of others ready to dive in. If all 12 run, it would be the first time the Preakness has had that many runners since 14 competed in 2011.

The most-prominent Derby finisher is Improbable, who crossed the wire fifth and then was moved up to fourth via the DQ and likely will be a lukewarm favorite to give trainer Bob Baffert a record eighth Preakness win. Baffert is tied with R.W. Walden, who won the Preakness seven times between 1875 and 1888. Mike Smith has the mount.

Other Derby participants running back in two weeks in the Preakness are Bodexpress (John Velazquez the rider, officially 13th after the DQ), War of Will (Tyler Gaffalione, seventh), and Win Win Win (Julian Pimentel, ninth).

The eight newcomers to the Triple Crown trail include three horses who won races that earned them fees-paid berths into the Preakness – local star Alwaysmining, winner of the Tesio at Laurel; Anothertwistafate, who won the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields; and Laughing Fox, winner of the Oaklawn Invitational on Derby Day. Daniel Centeno rides Alwaysmining. Jose Ortiz has picked up the mount on Anothertwistafate, who most recently was second in the Lexington at Keeneland. Ricardo Santana Jr. is on Laughing Fox.

Bourbon War and Signalman, both of whom were not entered in the Derby when it was apparent their only hope was to scratch in from the also-eligible list, should attract plenty of support. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides Bourbon War, who most recently was fourth in the Florida Derby. Signalman was third in the Blue Grass. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. has the mount.

Trainer Brad Cox has two runners. Owendale (Florent Geroux to ride) won the Lexington in his last start, and Warrior’s Charge (Javier Castellano) is making his stakes debut following maiden and allowance wins at Oaklawn. Warrior’s Charge was not nominated to the Triple Crown for $600 in January or $6,000 in March, so his owners must pay a $150,000 supplementary fee to make him eligible for the Preakness and the Belmont, the final leg of the Triple Crown on June 8.

The last horse to be added to the field is Market King, whose last race was an 11th-place finish in the Blue Grass on April 6 at Keeneland. He was scheduled to run in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day at Churchill Downs, but was scratched by the veterinarian in the post parade.

Market King shows two five-furlong works since – 1:00.20 on May 7, and 1:00.40 on Saturday – both at Churchill Downs.

Dr. Mary Scollay, the equine medical director of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, on Monday said that Market King had been placed on the veterinarian’s list as a result of being scratched prior to the Pat Day Mile and that he had yet to be removed. To be removed, Market King would have to work under the supervision of a commission veterinarian, who would then do a post-work soundness check and draw blood for analysis.

For my picks, I am keeping it very simple. I'll do an exacta box on Improbable, War of Will, Always Mining and Win Win Win. I'll also do a trifecta box with those four and all Anotherwifistate. 

Saturday, May 11, 2019

Wesley Ward runners look strong in Mamzelle at Churchill -- Preakness possibles


Churchill Downs has a 100 K Stakes race going on Saturday. Gee, I wonder where they found the money to do that?

Anyway, it's the Mamzelle Stakes, it'll go on the turf and it's a sprinter for 5 furlongs. It is RACE  9 ON THE CHURCHILL CARD

Wesley Ward has entered three runners and I definitely like two of them

#5 Chelsea Cloisters will get Brian Hernandez, Jr to ride. This one ran a huge race in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last year at 24-1 against Bulletin to finish second. "C.C." went toe-to-toe with the winner before fading near the wire. A trip to Keeneland this spring in another Stakes race produced a third place finish, once again, contending and fading late. The works have looked good and Chelsea could get the win today.  Maybe 7/2 odds, if you're lucky. My top pick.

#7 Catherinethegreat has Julian Leparoux riding for Mark Casse and this filly goes to the turf for the first time and at a shorter distance than she did in the fall, where she ran against Restless Rider and other top quality horses at Keeneland and Saratoga. She had a graded stakes win at Saratoga last summer and has been training great for her 2019 opener. She should love the turf and the shorter distance

#9 Abyssinian is the second of three Wesley Ward entries and one I do like a lot. Tyler Gaffalione takes over in the saddle. This gal ran into Bulletin this spring at Keeneland and finished a closing third.   Nothing but "bullet" works since that one indicate to me she's ready to try the Churchill turf.
Bulletin isn't in the house today. My second pick.

#12 Play On. Brad Cox goes to Shaun Bridgmohan for the ride today. She did finish behind Chelsea Cloisters this spring at Keeneland but Shaun wasn't on her that day and she won three in a row with him piloting at Fairgrounds and Gulfstream over the winter. She'll contest the early pace and have something to say about the finish.

(Ward's other horse is #1 Iva. She seems to win when Julio Garcia is on board and that's the case today but she got blown out in the Grade III Beaumont this spring at Keeneland and I have a hard time seeing her making a difference today. )


PAULIE PICKS   5-9-7-12      


******************************************************************************


PREAKNESS POSSIBILITIES? 

Next Saturday they'll contest the second jewel of the Triple Crown. The Preakness is run at Pimlico (for now...the track is falling apart, Maryland won't put any money into it and Laurel Race Course and others want that jewel....)

No Country House. No Maximum Security. No Code of Honor. No Tacitus. No Game Winner. No Omaha Beach or Roadster. Almost all the horses getting Derby chatter aren't contesting the Preakness. Only four of the 21 who were Derby considerations go to Baltimore, as of now.

Here's 11 who could show up.

ALWAYSMINING -- DANIEL CENTENO rides. Won the Tesio Stakes last out

ANOTHERTWISTAFATE -- JOSE ORTIZ up.  2nd in the Lexington

BODEXPRESS -- (NO JOCKEY NAMED) -- 13th in the Kentucky Derby

BOURBON WAR -- IRAD ORTIZ, JR on board. 4th in the Florida Derby

IMPROBABLE -- MIKE SMITH the jockey. 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

LAUGHING FOX -- RICARDO SANTANA gets the call. Won the Oaklawn Park Invitational

OWENDALE -- FLORENT GEROUX in the saddle. 1st in the Lexington 

SIGNALMAN -- BRIAN HERNANDEZ, JR pilots. 3rd in the Blue Grass

WAR OF WILL -- TYLER GAFFALIONE returns. 7th in the Kentucky Derby

WARRIORS CHARGE -- JAVIER CASTELLANO jocks. Won an allowance race at Oaklawn

WIN WIN WIN -- JULIEN PIMENTEL has the reins. 9th in the Kentucky Derby.

You have a week to figure this mess out.  As of right now, I'm looking at Improbable, War of Will and the Ortiz brothers mounts...Anothertwistafate and Bourbon War. We'll review it more on Friday.


paulie
xxxxx





Sunday, May 5, 2019

KY DERBY 145: THE "THEY'VE GATHERED AROUND THE MONITORS" DERBY -- RESULTS


On what to be a wild and wooly trip around the final turn and to "down the stretch they come" territory, the 145th Kentucky Derby had a winner, there were objections to the winner, there was a review of the winner's trip and a subsequent disqualification.

What is this? ACC Women's basketball? All we needed was Jeff Walz, Quentin Hillsman or Wes Moore on the sloppy Churchill surface yelling in Dee Kanter's ear as the officials strode to the sideline table. This was much bigger than that, though. A horse out of control (Maximum Security) appeared to be on a jailbreak of sorts when the field made their final surge around the turn and to the wire. Luis Saez, the jockey on "Max" had him wide, then had him ducking to the rail, and...in the process, interferred with several horses final push down the Churchill stretch .

And, it went to review. 20 minutes of review. Three calls to jockeys from the stewards. Reviewing every possible angle of the scene of question.  And, of course, the inane commentary of the talking heads on the peacock network.

War Of Will could have been your Derby winner if "Max" hadn't cut in front of him, stopped him almost dead in his tracks. Credit jockey Tyler Gaffliaone for keeping his horse upright in what might have been one of the most horrific spills in racing history.

And, the horse that led them all the way is taken down. All the way down. No payout, a call by stewards on two valid objections from veteran race riders...Jon Court, who got  and Tyler.

It was the right call.

And it propelled second place race finisher Country House into first. The first time  Derby had ever been decided that way. The first win ever for local legend Billy Mott. A win for up-and-coming rider Flavien Prat who did the right thing, kept his horse wide in the turn and ran the race of his young life.

This one will be talked about for a very long time, but...stewards have a role, they were called on to perform it and the three did what they are assigned to do.


They made the right call.

********************************************************************************


SATURDAY RESULTS

I handicapped all 14 races for you (my brain still hurts) and gave you four horses per race. Out of the 56 I picked, 22 of them claimed the 42 "payable" spots. 52% "in the money"

I had seven winners, seven seconds and eight thirds. The winners paid (on a $2 wager) $23.20, $13.20, $23.00, $6.40, $4.20, $13.20 and $9.00.

I did not have the Derby Winner when it was all finally decided. That's the breaks of the game.

I went back to the "$2 across the board" on my four choices per race. That was $24 a race and $336 wagered for the day. Final payouts brought back $278...so I actually lost $58 on the day.

Any horse player will tell you that you can't bet them all and expect to leave a winner.  I barely did just that on Friday -- showing a profit -- but it came back to get me Saturday. My skills were pretty good through the first eight races and the final two...but that stretch of races 9,10,11 and 12 got me.

Add my 50 cent Derby trifecta box of five horses to the losses and it wasn't the best of days. On a day where weird things were happening and handicapping was basically just as effective and closing your eyes and picking a horse...that's how it goes sometimes.

I'll be back in a couple of weeks to look at the Preakness.


paulie
xxxxx

Friday, May 3, 2019

DERBY DAY SELECTIONS --- FRIDAY RESULTS


It is finally here!  The first Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby. 


It looks like it is going to be a wet one, whether you're at Churchill or at a party in the area. Fortunately, the forecasts I've been watching seem to be getting a little better the later I watch them for Saturday as I've watched...but there will be rain. 

 Derby=Rain

14 races tomorrow. You'll find my picks below. As always, play them anyway you want.

(THESE ARE SELECTIONS based on the latest scratches as of 9 a.m. Saturday)


RACE 1 -- 6 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $80K

3 -- CURATE
2 -- CONTROL STAKE 
6 -- MR. CROW 
5 -- KOWBOY KARMA


RACE 2 -- 1 MILE -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $100K

6 -- AMERICAN ANTHEM
1a --  MY BOY JACK
4 -- KING ZACHARY
2 -- WAR GIANT


RACE 3 -- 6 FURLONGS -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100K

1 -- YOUNG PHILLIP
4 -- SUROOJ
6 -- PALMER'S WAY
10 -- ADMIRAL BROWN


RACE 4 -- 7 FURLONGS -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- $75K

2 -- HIDDEN SCROLL
5 -- BORRACHO
4 -- HIGH CRIME
8 -- YOUVESAIDITALL 


RACE 5 --  1-1/16TH MILE --  (TURF)  --  MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100K

6 -- SILVER KITTEN 
12 -- GOLD STANDARD
7 -- SHE'S GOT MOVES
1A -- SUGAR LOVE


RACE 6 -- 7 FURLONGS -- HUMANA DISTAFF STAKES -- $500K

2 -- SPICED PERFECTION
5 -- AMY'S CHALLENGE
7 -- MARLEY'S FREEDOM
6 -- EMBOLDENED


RACE 7 -- I MILE -- (TURF) -- CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE -- $400k 

6 -- PRECIEUSE
10 -- VALEDICTORIAN
4 -- BEAU RECALL
3 -- PROCTOR'S LEDGE


RACE 8 --  7 FURLONGS -- CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES -- $500K

8 -- MITOLE
12 -- WHITMORE
6 -- PROMISES FULFILLED
7 -- WARRIOR'S CLUB


RACE 9 -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- (TURF) -- THE AMERICAN TURF -- $400K

1 -- A THREAD OF BLUE
8 -- AVIE'S FLATTER
9 --  WAR FILM
10 -- HENLEY'S JOY


RACE 10 -- 1 MILE -- THE PAT DAY MILE -- $400K

10 --  INSTAGRAND
1 -- DURKIN'S CALL
9 -- CAPTAIN VON TRAPP 
8 -- MANNY WAH


RACE 11 -- 1-1/8TH MILE -- (TURF) --  OLD FORESTER TURF CLASSIC -- $1 MIL

12 -- BRICKS AND MORTAR
9 -- SYNCHRONY
6 -- CLYDE'S IMAGE 
2 -- RAGING BULL


RACE 12 -- 1-1/4TH MILE -- THE KENTUCKY DERBY -- 3 MIL

17 -- ROADSTER
3 -- BY MY STANDARDS 
8 -- TACITUS
16 -- GAME WINNER


RACE 13 -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING --   $75K

10 -- BANDON WOODS
9 -- ROYAL MESA
11 -- HOFFA UNION 
1 -- LIMONITE


RACE 14 -- 1-1/16TH MILE-- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- $100 K

2 -- RANGER UP
1 -- ROTATION 
7 -- FELIX THE FOX
9 -- SPEED APP


GOOD LUCK ! 



****************************************************************************


FRIDAY RESULTS

I had a few winners but missed capturing the Oaks Race.  Oh well, racing luck, right? 

I gave you 52 horses to choose from that competed for 39 "payoff" spots (win place or show).  23 of my picks "hit the board" for a 59% "in the money" percentage. 

I had eight winners in the 13 races, nine second places and six shows. 

I also had five exactas and three trifectas correctly picked. 

I wagered a little differently on Friday. I took my four picks in each race and bet a $2 exacta box.  That's $24 a race X 13 races =  $312 in total wagers 

I got back $325.80.  A $13.80 profit.  I also spent $10 to win on Bellafina. Ugh. 



paulie
xxxxx

Thursday, May 2, 2019

OAKS DAY SELECTIONS -- THURSDAY RESULTS


Oaks Day could be a pretty sloppy wet mess, but we'll hope for the best and -- whatever the weather turns out to be, it's a very challenging field. 13 races today, so let's get to it.

PER USUAL...I'll give you my top four picks. Do what you will with them.


NOTE: PICKS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS OF 10 A.M. FRIDAY TO REFLECT CHANGES DUE TO SCRATCHES AND WILL CONTINUE AS NEEDED AS THE DAY GOES ON



RACE 1 -- 1 MILE --  NOW OFF TURF --ALLOWANCE -- 50K

5)  TOM'S LAST GENERAL
8)  LUCK OF THE DRAW
7) GIGGING
1) HANDSOME HONEY


RACE 2 -- 6 FURLONGS -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 80K

3)  ALTER MOON
5)  UPSET BREWING
2)  AWESTRUCK
6)  MAGICAL


RACE 3 -- 7 FURLONGS -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 75K

9)  GOLDEN CURL
6)  IRISH MISCHIEF
5)  ANGEL ALESSANDRA
1)  SHACKLETTE


RACE 4 -- 1-1/16TH MILE (NOW OFF TURF) -- 100K

3)  I CAN DO ANYTHING
10) FIREBALL JON
4) HEIRLOOM KITTEN
19) NAPOLEAN'S EMPIRE


RACE 5 -- 7 FURLONGS -- THE EIGHT BELLES -- GII  -- 250K

1)  TAKE CHARGE ANGEL
9)  MOTHER MOTHER
6)  DEL MAR MARY
4)  BREAK EVEN


RACE 6 -- 1-1/16TH MILE (TURF)  THE EDGEWOOD -- GIII -- 250K

1)  NEWSPAPEROFRECORD 
2)  CAMBIER PARC
5)  CONCRETE ROSE
4)  FORTUNATE GIRL


RACE 7 -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- THE ALYSHEBA -- G II -- 400K

1)  MCKINZIE
5)  BOURBON RESOLUTION
8)  SEEKING THE SOUL
2)  TOM'S D ETAT


RACE 8 -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- LA TROIENNE -- GI -- 500K

2)  BLUE PRIZE
1)  SHE'S A JULIE
9)  SECRET SYSTEM
5)  MOPOTISM


RACE 9 -- 7 FURLONGS -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING --  62.5K

8)  HOME BASE
7)  SOLID WAGER
6)  STROLLING
10)  GREY SKY


RACE 10 -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS --  (TURF) --  TURF SPRINT -- G II -- 250K

6)  WORLD OF TROUBLE
8)  UNDRAFTED
4)  JAZZY TIMES
7)  ANGASTON


RACE 11 -- 1-1/8TH MILES -- THE KENTUCKY OAKS --  GI  -- 1250K

4)  BELLAFINA
1)  OUT FOR A SPIN
10)  CHAMPAGNE ANYONE
9)  LIORA


RACE 12 -- 1-1/16TH MILES -- OPTIONAL CLAIMING -- 75K

10)  CLOUD CHARMER
3)  HIGH REGARD
4)  EQUIFOX
1)  FUN PADDY 


RACE 13 -- SIX FURLONGS -- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT -- 100k

8)  VOMBA
11)  AYMARA
3)  SHILAH BABY
5)  NEW RULES


GOOD LUCK !

************************************************************************

THURSDAY RESULTS

I handicapped all 11 races and had an OK day. Out of the 44 horses I gave out, 33 had the
chance to "make money"  (win, place or show).  20 of them did just that, for an average of 60%
"in the money"

Six were winners. Based on $2 wagers, they paid $10.40, $8.40, $11.40, $4.80, $3.40 and $7.00

I also had seven horses run second and seven run third.

I hit five exactas. Based on $2 wagers, those paid $42.20, $74.40, $13.00, $17.60 and $43.40.

I don't play trifectas...but I selected two of those, For what it's worth.



paulie
xxxxx










Omaha Beach a Derby Scratch -- Now what? -- THURSDAY PICKS


With OMAHA BEACH scratching from the Kentucky Derby with a breathing/throat problem, my favorite to win the Derby is now also in the barn and on the sidelines.

I'll add TACITUS to my list of five horses to watch.

Tacitus ran well in winning the Wood Memorial in New York, out-dueling Tax in the stretch and Churchill has that long, long stretch...so I' have to move Tacitus into the spot.

So, the final five for me, as it stands now...is Roadster, Game Winner, By My Standards, Code of Honor and Tacitus. If pressed for a winner out of this bunch, I guess I'll land on Roadster. 

He's a Baffert horse. Florent Geroux is a very capable jockey. He did well in the Santa Anita Derby getting past Game Winner. That's about all I got.

Let me tell you that this picking of Roadster is far from a confident pick, however. I'll watch track conditions Saturday and decide how I'll go about wagering.


WEDNESDAY RESULTS

I gave you three plays yesterday. we went 2 for 3.

We hit the 4th race exacta with the 3-1.. Paid $25.60 on the $2 wager

We hit the 7th race exacta withthe 5-1 .. Paid $23.60 on the $2 wager

We miised on the late pick three (8,9,10). Didn't have the ninth race -- a 25-1 shot -- but
ran a VERY CLOSE second with the #1 who was also 25-1. BALLLONS !

*****************************************************************************


THURSDAY SELECTIONS (UPDATED 11:45 AM)

As usual, I'll give you four horses or entries. You decide what to do with them. I list my favorite on top.

RACE 1 --  Five Furlongs -- 2 yr old maidens -- 100K 

1 -- LADY DELAWARE
4 -- MEMORABLE
7) -- DEVIANT
8) -- ENFORCEABLE 

RACE 2 --  1-1/16TH MILE -- CLAIMING 50K

2 -- COWBOY RHYTHM
1 -- HE'S BANKABLE
4 -- SUPREME AURA
6 -- STRONG YEN

RACE 3  -- 1 MILE -- MAIDENS 100K

4 -- SWEET ADDISON
5 -- AWESOME ONE
6 -- MY MAJESTIC ROSE
7 -- SECOND COMING


RACE 4 -- 1-1/16TH MILE -- CLAIMING 10K

2 - EVENING TIDE
4 -- KATIE THE CUTIE
1 - SHE TAKES HEART
5 - MORTY


RACE 5 --  1-1/16TH MILE (TURF) - ALLOWANCE 103K

3 -- PENALTY
7 -- CLEAR FOR ACTION
9 -- BATTLE OF MEMPHIS
2 -- ARMISTICE DAY


RACE 6 -- 6 FURLONGS -- MDN CLAIMING 30K

8 -- JD'S GIRL
3 -- WON LIL INDIAN
5 -- PAIGELY
2 -- PASSION'S IMAGE


RACE 7 -- 6 FURLONGS -- CLAIMING 5K

8 -- BUGGY BROWN
1 - SWAMP RULER
2 - ARCH YOU READY
5 -- BOURNE IN NIXA

RACE 8 -- 1 MILE (TURF)  OPENING VERSE STAKES 115K

2 -- HOT SPRINGS
4 -- FIRST PREMIO
7 -- BALLAGH ROCKS
9 -- OM

RACE 9 --  1-1/16TH MILE -- CLAIMING 30K

4 -- DATA DAMSEL
5 -- IPANAMA BEACH
1 -- HOUSTON STRONG
2 -- BODE ON TAP

RACE 10 -- 5-1/2 FURLONGS (TURF) -- UNBRIDLED SIDNEY STAKES -- 125K

7 -- MORTICIA
8 -- RUBY NOTION
9 -- EXCESSIVE SPENDING
2 -- SURRENDER NOW


RACE 11 -- 1 MILE -- CLAIMING 20K

4 -- ALZHAI
9 -- TAYLOR'S EDGE
10 -- TOP MENTION
2 -- LETHAL LEVY


GOOD LUCK!

paulie
xxxxx



Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Kentucky Derby Post Draw -- WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS




There's your field and post positions for the Kentucky Derby.

Based on the draw, I'm ready to give you my five horses I feel have the best shot at winning.

OMAHA BEACH still remains my pick to win but I'm also considering GAME WINNER, ROADSTER, BY MY STANDARDS and CODE OF HONOR. Play them anyway you see fit, I'll probably try a .50 cent trifecta box on the five and some other nonsense. If you are a superfecta fan, maybe try those five in the top two spots and add Tacitus and Maximum Security with them in third and fourth. You can do a .50 cent superfecta this way for $200 and my guess is it'll pay way more than your original investment.

I'll be back tomorrow with some selections for Thursday's card at Churchill.


**************************************************************************


Looking at today (Wednesday's) card....I see three races where I might play.

Play #1   .50 Cent Late Pick Three:

Race 8:  1,6,11
Race 9:  1,2.6
Race 10:  1,3,7,8

This is only a $22.50 wager amount and from what I saw yesterday....inside posts werre having a lot of success and the rail was quite alive.

Play #2  $2 exacta box in Race 7 with the 1,2,3,5    A $24 investment


Play #3 $2 exacta box in Race 4 with 1,2,3,6  A  $24 investment




paulie
xxxxx