What did Saturday Teach Us?

Yes, we are sneaking up on the Kentucky Derby. The First Saturday in May is now a little over a month away. Two key preps for the Derby were run on Saturday. How did it affect the future race.?


Let's look at the Louisiana Derby first. GIRVIN went in as the prohibitive favorite and didn't disappoint the betting crowd. Unhurried early...he rallied from mid-pack and overcame PATCH in the stretch...going on to win by 1 1/4th lengths. The win gives rider Brian Hernandez, Jr a lot to think about. BJ is also the rider on McCRACKEN...who is the tepid favorite right now at 5-1 in the future pool. Hernandez, Jr will team up with McCracken this Saturday in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Who knows...if BJ decides to go with "the Mac", maybe Girvin trainer Joe Sharp could coax his wife...former jocker Rosie Napravnik...to come out of retirement and take the mount. She works the horse in morning workouts. 

WATCH THE RACE AT THIS LINK  LOUISIANA DERBY

In the Florida Derby, Todd Pletcher scratched BATTALION RUNNER for another day and ALWAYS DREAMING was his runner. It was a wise move. The horse tracked Three Rules early, went to the lead and never looked back...winning the 1-1/8 miles in a very impressive 1:47.47. Johnny Velasquez just sprinted away from the field at the 1/8 pole and took Always Dreaming to the wire with a very convincing win. Even money favorite GUNNEVERA broke slowly, trailed for at least half the race but closed strong...even though it was way too late...to grab third. 

WATCH THE RACE AT THIS LINK  FLORIDA DERBY

* PLETCHER LOADED *

Todd Pletcher, simply put, has a lot of marbles in this game. Always Dreaming, One Liner -- winner of the Rebel --, Patch, Battalion Runner, Tapwrit -- winner of the Tampa Bay Derby -- and Malagacy.  This six pack could break off and run their own Derby division. Our buddy Archie Karel's adage "Todd Pletcher on Saturday" is spot-on accurate as we get closer to the first Saturday in May. 

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*  PAULIE'S "Way too early" TOP FIVE * 

The way I see it right now...here's my top five

1) Always Dreaming 

His Florida Derby romp sold me. He could make a mockery of the rest down that long Churchill stretch. He's got the right guy in the saddle, too, with John Velasquez.

2) Girvin

I liked the way he seperated himself in the the stretch at the Fairgrounds and caught and passed the leader. I'll wait for and see who will be piloting him before mocing him out of second.

3) Gunnevera

Made up considerable ground to get the show money in Florida. Churchill has a long stretch. I just need to have some confidence that he won't be as far back in the Run for the Roses. 

4) McCracken

The first horse that drew my "winner possibility" interest. Loved his 2 yr. old campaign. Once again, he has a prep race coming up and how he does in that will be the key on whether I move him up or down in my rankings. 

5) Classic Empire

A crazy good work this morning at Ocala and he is the Breeder's Futurity and Breeders Cup winner. Regular rider Julian Leparoux may have a tough decision to make if the runner performs well in the Arkansas Derby on April 15th. 

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*  SCOTT HARRIS' TOP FIVE AS OF NOW *

1) GIRVIN

Very impressive in both the risen Star and Louisiana Derby

2) ALWAYS DREAMING

Todd Pletcher trainee made it look like a walk in the park in the Florida Derby and the colt and his connections will bring their talents all the way from South Beach to the Bluegrass. 

3) J BOYS ECHO

Dale Romans trained runner looks to bring redemption to the Albaugh family. J Boys Echo has taken a path through the Big Apple but plans to throw a welcome home party under the Twin Spires on Derby Day. 

4) McCRACKEN

This three year old has a victory over the Churchill Downs surface, so there is no question he likes the track.. He does leave a couple of questions to be answered. Has he recovered from his minor ankle sprain? Can he even make the Derby field? He needs a top three finish in the Blue Grass Stakes this weekend at Keeneland. 

5) STATE OF HONOR

Ran a good second in the Florida Derby behind Always Dreaming. He's trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julian Leparoux. He gave Leparoux some trouble being rank through the first turn and halfway down the backstretch in the Florida Derby. If he can settle into a stalking trip in the Kentucky Derby, he could earn all the honors on the first Saturday in May. 

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*   ARCHIE KAREL'S TOP FIVE  *


1) MCCRACKEN

Needs to come in first or second in his next race to qualify but he owns Churchill and has yet to be his best.

2) ALWAYS DREAMING

A monster race last out but on a speed biased track but he is rounding into form.

3) GIRVIN

This horse is killing it, however, what have the Fairgrounds preps added to the Derby value in the past five years? 

4) TAPWRIT

Only beaten by McCracken in the Sam Davis. HE ran great in the Tampa Bay Derby. 

5) CLASSIC EMPIRE

Needs a top two finish in the Bluegrass to get in but for now will leave him in the mix.


Good racing ahead and the potential for a star-studded Derby. 

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-paulie