Saturday, May 7, 2016
Kentucky Derby Selections
142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
To start with, we hope you followed out picks yesterday for the OAKS. We handicapped six stakes races and had the winner in all six! We hit exactas, trifectas, superfectas and four Pick Threes, two Pick Fours and the late Pick Five. We pretty much made it rain up in there.
It was a phenomenal day. Whether we can duplicate that or not remains to be seen, but we'll try in the seven stakes races today.
Race Six -- Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
(1) TEPIN is the pick here. May be the best pick of the day. (4) ISABELLA SINGS will try her best to pull the upset. (3) CASH CONTROL likes this mile distance and Churchill. (9) RAINHA DA BATERIA has lost to Tepin and Cash Control several times but switches riders today to Javier Castaellano. A longshot at best.
Race Seven -- The Churchill Downs
(8) SALUTOS AMIGOS has a closing style very well suited for Churchill and should be flying down the stretch. (3) CALCULATOR will be coming with him and might just get past him today...they finished 1-2 in New York in April (6) SPEIGHTSTER looks to be the early speed and wll try to steal it up front. (7) HOLY BOSS will contest the early pace also and Ricardo Santana gets back on board for Steve Asmussen.
Race Eight -- The Humana Distaff
(8) TARIS invades from the west coast and her off-the-pace running style and Flavian Prat back on the top might work today. (2) STONETASTIC will offer the early speed and they all may be chasing her and Paco Lopez from start to the wire. (9) BIRDATTHEWIRE and (10) WAVELL AVENUE come in from Keeneland out of very good Grade 1 Madison efforts. They both get jockey changes and neither would be a surprise in the winners circle.
Race Nine -- The American Turf
(1) AIROFORCE returns to the turf, where he excels, and get Julian Leparoux to pilot. (8) SHAKHIMAT will be the speed here and looked good in the Transylvania at Keeneland (6) JR'S HOLIDAY ran behind Shakhimat there and his best will get him a shot again today. (11) DRESSED IN HERMES is a late closer and veteran Mike Smith has won twice on this gelding.
Race 10 -- The Pat Day Mile
(6) SHARP AZTECA might get us a good price today. Last two races were impressive and he's been working great at Churchill. (9) FELLOWSHIP has been chasing Derby runners Nyquist and Mohaymen since January in Derby perp races and could fire today without those two around in this one. (10) COCKED AND LOADED will be the speed and did win the Iroquois at Churchill last fall. (3) TORRONTES closes well and might benefit from early speed.
Race 11 -- Woodford Reserve Turf Classic
(3) BOLO ran in the Derby here last year (not so well) but had made great improvement since. He'll try to stay close warly and pass tiring leaders. (2) CHOCOLATE RIDE will try to go wire-to-wire and gets Castellano on biard today. (12) BIG BLUE KITTEN has been off since finishing third in the Breeders Cup Turf last fall but has been working well and has won on the Churchill turf. (10) TOURIST gets Florent Geroux on and is a another that will get up front and try to steal it. (Note) I also like (6) SLUMBER but worry about the shorter distance than he's used to.
Race 12 -- The Kentucky Derby
I've discussed my final five here at the site and the final picks are:
(11) EXAGGERATOR - Still love the the closing style
(3) CREATOR - Also closes well
(13) NYQUIST - Will probably be leading in the stretch
(5) GUN RUNNER - Will contend the pace. Late?
(19) BRODY'S CAUSE - Closed well at Keeneland.
Good luck and HAPPY DERBY! (These picks are for entertainment purposes only and make no guaranteed financial success claims. -- WE DID KICK BUTT YESTERDAY, THOUGH -- Wager responsibly.