Saturday, August 19, 2017
Handicapping Heroes -- Saratoga and Pacific Classic Results from 8/19
The Handicappers took on the late Pick4 at Saratoga Saturday and also tossed in the Pacific Classic. Maybe it was because Scott was absent, maybe it was just bad racing luck or it could have been poor handicapping...but Paulie and Archie didn't turn in exactly spectacular performances. It happens sometimes...and especially at "the Graveyard of Favorites" -- Saratoga. Here's how it went.
PAULIE had a total of 18 horses break from the gate in the five races. Out of them, eight hit the board. He had two winners, four seconds and two thirds. He also had a exacta and trifecta. No Pick3 or Pick4. His best bet didn't hit the board, neither did his value play or his top jock of the sequence. A pretty pitiful PAULIE performance with 21 points.
ARCHIE had 19 runners try to win. He had eight hit the board. Arch had three winners, three seconds and two thirds. Give him two exactas and two trifectas. No Pick3 or Pick4's here either. His best bet and value play failed to win but his jock of the sequence (Javier Castellano) did pick up a win. ARCHIE takes the day with 37 points.
Paulie -- 381
Archie -- 362
Scott -- 307 (Note: We gave Scott Paulie's totals since he was unable to participate. He probably would have done much better.)
It goes to prove to us once again that every day at the track isn't always a winning one. We do have some phenomenal days at the site but Saturday turned out not to be one of them. We did see some great racing, though and the Pacific Classic was just that...where Collected remained undefeated and held off Arrogate and Accelerate. I am beginning to think Arrogate just doesn't like the Del Mar surface...he has lost twice in a row there. Will he go in the Breeders Cup Classic out there this fall? Probably...but I'll side with others if he does.
EVER WISH YOU HAD THAT BETTING SYNDICATE TYPE OF MONEY?
It would be fun to have $10,000 or so just laying around that you could use to go deep in a Pick 6 sequence....like those syndicate conglomerates do, right? They had a mandatory payout Pick 6 at Del Mar yesterday and I played a $24 ticket that hit four of the six races. No cigar there.
It's a $2 minimum wager...so I also, just for fun, gave myself an imaginary $10,000 bankroll and decided to see if I could take it down. Here's how I sequenced it:
Race Six - Four horses. Moonshine Memories, Tyfoshi, Dr. Ann and One Slick Chick
Race Seven - Six horses. Liam The Charmer, Itsinthepost, Monster Bea, Ashleylovessugar, He Will and Hunt
Race Eight - Four horses. Collected, Accelerate, Donworth and Arrogate
Race Nine - Three horses. Dangerfield, Americanize and Edwards Going Left
Race Ten - Five horses, Con Te Partiro, Dream Dancing, Beau Recall, Tapped and Bernina Star.
Race Eleven - Three horses. Jabber Now, Powder and Laynee.
The math was 4x6x4x3x5x3. It equals $4320. You multiply that times 2 (the amount of the bet) and my total cost was $8620. I had enough left for a weekend in St. Petersburg Beach if I wanted. Or to fly out and watch it live at Del Mar. Isn't imaginary money great?
The horses in bold print above won. The Pick 6 paid $20139.80. Sure, I could have put that $8620 on a 2-1 shot and gotten back about the same...actually a little bit more...based on a $6 payoff on a $2 wager...but I would have had no coverage in the race and I'm not sure if I was confident enough to do that with any of them. I likely would have chosen Americanized or Ashleylovesssugar and gotten dusted. Here are the payouts to win in each race...based on a $2 wager.
Race Six - $9.40
Race Seven - $8.80
Race Eight - $8.00
Race Nine - $5.40
Race Ten - $15.20
Race Eleven - $8.60
When we talk about getting sufficient coverage in a race, it's usually good advice. Sure, no long-shots bombed the sequence (the highest win odds were 7-1) but you can build those longshots in...if you're not afraid to put in a few extra dollars in a Pick 3 or Pick 4. I had a few in the sequence above. They didn't win...but if they had, it would have boosted the Pick 6 payout.
Going deep can be profitable...as we have seen above. A late Pick 4 in that sequence (.50 variety) with my numbers would have cost $90. It paid $320. A nice return.
Sometimes, we worry about saving $8 or $10 dollars per investor and end up streamlining things and then end up NOT winning a sequence because we threw a horse someone liked out in order to save a few bucks. It's happened to me and probably happened to you. Of course, there are NO guarantees you going to always win. We all know that -- (unless you hit the "all" button in every race). By the way, the "all" button in each race of the Pick 6 would have cost you $2,108,106.
We always recommend here that you wager responsibly. Know your monetary limits, stay in them and don't go "chasing" if you're way down on the day trying to get even. There will be other days, other cards and other chances.
Anyway, some thoughts and a bit of fun. Anyone want to pony up $500 and start a syndicate? We get 20 folks and we are in business. (Yeah, I thought so...) Don't call me, Paulie...I'll call you.
I'm going out and spend my imaginary $20,000.
To hear yesterday's broadcast...click this LINK
To e-mail the Handicappers with questions, comments, ideas,suggestions or just general nonsense...send away to firstname.lastname@example.org