Kentucky Derby one week away!

This time next Saturday, the Kentucky Derby will be just 9 1/2 hours away. Who will run, who will win, who will disappoint and are there any upset specials out there?

All the talk is about California Chrome...and the California invader will most likely be the betting favorite to win the Run for the Roses. Trainer Art Sherman has a powerful horse in C.C. and if he gets a clear trip...they probably won't get to him.  Clear trips in the Derby are rarities, though. Anything can happen when you turn 20 horses loose in front of 150,000 people and expect them to run further than they ever have before.

Wicked Strong has been getting a fair share of notice also and Jimmy Jerkins is a veteran trainer that knows how to get a 3 year old ready for big races. Like Sherman, though...he's never won the Derby and some feel that Wicked Strong won't be able to get the distance of 1 - 1/4 miles.

So..who are the longshots that I like? I'll give you three to watch.

1) We Miss Artie. I've been following the Todd Pletcher runner since his 2 yr. old campaign. He's been a horse in the making...until his win at Turfway last month, he wasn't being considered as a legit Derby threat. I like his gritty, refuse to lose style. He doesn't like being passed up and has the strength and stamina to easily run the Derby distance.

2) Tapiture.  He was all the rage as a 2 yr old and horse racing expert writer J.J.Hysell and I were ready to hand him the Derby Trophy after he destroyed the competition after his first three career races. 2 yr. olds become 3 yr. olds, of course...and his 3 yr. old campaign has been rather so-so and disappointing to date. IF he returns to that sparkling form of last year, though...watch out.

3) Ride On Curlin. Always so close, but never the win. A hard charger that is going to love the long Churchill Downs stretch...the Billy Gowan trained runner could follow a quick pace and be poised to swing to the middle of the track...where he likes to finish...and zoom past tiring runners. I loved his daddy also...the incredible Curlin...and breeding is a big factor in a horse's chances.

My handicapping pal Tommy Boy is ready to leverage the mortgage on Dance With Fate. He looked awfully good in winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland...charging from way back to pass the field and hit the wire first. He'll also have the services of Corey Nakatani in the saddle. "C-Nak" is one of my favorite jockeys of all time and his son is a place-kicker on the UofL Football team.

What else do you need?

With Derby fast approaching, I'll be submitting daily articles over here now. We'll also look at the Kentucky Oaks and Sonja and I will submit our Oaks Day and Derby Day picks here as well.

She kills me every year. She puts little effort into handicapping or studying the races. She won't reveal her
methods...but...consider this:

In the Oaks and Derby Day Stakes races selections last year...a $2 bet across the board on her selections would have cost you $72. You would have collected $310.

Finally, one of my favorite horseracing quotes comes from the late Mike Barry. He wrote for the Louisville Times newspaper many years ago. He said:

"I hope to break even at the racetrack. I could use the money."

See ya Sunday.