Kentucky Derby -- 8 horses. Why to Like and Why Not to Like

Let's look at EIGHT Kentucky Derby horses (as of Tuesday) and play the old game "Why to Like and Why Not to Like". We'll go through these by points accumulated..so, if you don't see your horse at the top...keep looking or he didn't finish in the top EIGHT points rankings 

GIRVIN

Why: Was convincing in the Louisiana Derby win, Mike Smith rides and trainer Joe Sharp is a local hero. 
Why Not: A quarter crack on hoof and he's been rehab swimming. They don't run the Kentucky Derby over at the Ralph Wright Natatorium on UofL campus.

CLASSIC EMPIRE 

Why:  Loves Churchill's track. Julian Leparoux loves the track. Two year old champion. 
Why Not:  Leparoux has never won the Derby. Trainer Mark Casse has never won the Derby. A horse named Classic has never won the Derby.

GORMLEY

Why:  Won in California at Santa Anita Derby where the last two Derby winners have come from. Rider Victor Espinoza has won Derby twice. 

Why Not:  California three year olds are weak this year. Classic Empire crushed him at Churchill when they met. 

IRAP

Why:  He did win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland at huge odds against a solid field. Trainer Doug O'Neill has won the Derby twice. 

Why not:  He was a a maiden before the win and is a classic candidate for a "bounce". 

IRISH WAR CRY

Why:  He ruled in the Wood Memorial and trainer Graham Motion has won the Derby before with Animal Kingdom.

Why Not:  A New Jersey bred horse has not won the Derby since 1934 and rider Rajiv Maragh has never won the Derby. 

THUNDER SNOW

Why:  His win in the UAE Derby was impressive and he had an excellent work at Churchill. 

Why Not:  A UAE Derby horse has never won the Kentucky Derby and he hasn't raced since late March, which is too long of a layoff. 

ALWAYS DREAMING

Why:  His Florida Derby win may have been the most dominating win out of all the Derby prep races and he's worked well since coming to Kentucky.

Why Not:  Pundits have dismissed the Florida Derby as one of the weakest prep races and the winning time wasn't all that eye-popping. 


GUNNERVERA

Why:  He was the favorite in the Florida Derby and was flying at the end after a slow start to get third. 

Why Not:  20 runners in the Derby and if he's as far behind as he was in Florida there is no way he'll be able to get through the traffic jam. 


We did not cover a couple of horses I do like here. 

McCraken and Tapwrit are horses I currently have in my top six but not listed today. After the post position draw Wednesday, I'll list my top six. 


paulie
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