Some Early Derby Thoughts...

THREE WEEKS OUT AND THREE HORSES TO CONSIDER

The Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 7th. That's about three weeks out from this writing on April 15th. I've been busy watching a lot of Derby prep races from all over the country and feel safe to say (unless CUPID destroys the field Saturday in massive fashion in the Arkansas Derby) that I have three horses that I'm looking at as the next Kentucky Derby winner currently. In order...

1) EXAGGERATOR

What this horse did in the Santa Anita Derby slop was simply amazing. Starting in the backstretch and circling the field. Pulling away in the homestretch as if (to quote the PA announcer's call that day) "the others were tied to the guardrail" . I can only imagine what he might do on a fast track where the hold and footing is better. And if it rains Derby Day...forget about it. He could win by 10 lengths. Kent Desmoureaux rides for his brother, another wise guy angle.  To say I'm excited about his chances is no.... exaggeration. 

2) NYQUIST

The big Bob Baffert runner destroyed the competition in the Florida Derby. The only knock on him is that because he is out of Uncle Mo, people are wondering if he can get 1 1/4 miles effectively. 

I think he can and will be leading this Derby until Exaggerator runs by him. In Nyquist's favor, he's beat Exaggerator three times already. That, of course, means nothing on Derby Day. 

3) BRODY'S CAUSE

You have to like the way he exploded down the short Keeneland Stretch to win going away. And he's very capable of exploding down the longer Churchill stretch on Derby Day. The question is...will it matter or be in time to run down Nyquist or keep up with Exaggerator's run. It is a horse to consider in the exotics. 

Things can change in three weeks. These top three might change also...but for now...they are the way I'm thinking. 

paulie
xxxxx